Marilisa Lorusso's blog

Week 22-29 Dec.: The right thing...

2012-01-30T10:30:00.000+01:00

... at the wrong time.
At the beginning of the week Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev and Armenian one Serzh Sargsyan met in Sochi, guests of the Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, in the framework of the periodic endeavor to move a step onward, on the way of a political resolution of the Karabakh issue. Or at least to prevent violence to spiral up, more likely.

At the end of the meeting the joint statement reads: "Signifying Peace treaty development President of the Republic of Armenia and President of the Republic of Azerbaijan have expressed commitment to accelerate the agreement of Basic principles considering the work done so far."

But, few lines below, it's clarified what are the feasible measures that can be implemented at present: "In development of Sochi joint declaration adopted on March 5, 2011, presidents of the Republic of Armenia, Republic of Azerbaijan and Russian Federation approved co-chairs’ report on launching investigation mechanisms in the contact line, which they have co-developed with the personal representative of OSCE Chairperson-in-Office and recommended to continue that work."

The meeting took place just before Armenian militarist rhetoric would reach its pick.
The 28th of January marks the anniversary of the foundation of the Armenian Army. The twentieth anniversary was pompously celebrated, and Serzh Sargsyan declared:
"Twenty years ago, we turned the wheel of history. It that critical time, our nation reinstated its independent statehood and took total responsibility for the protection of its rights and national interests. At the moment of that historic rise, the creation of the Armenian army was one of the most momentous achievements.

There was an imperative to thwart the imminent danger of a genocide looming over the Armenian people and, particularly, over the Armenians of Artsakh. That vital episode of the army creation was necessitated by the time itself."

Somehow, the wording of the statements isn't going in the same direction... It wouldn't have been bad to end the celebration with the wish "NEVER AGAIN". But such wish - apparently - was not openly expressed.

Week 15-22 Jan.: Into the wild

2012-01-22T17:13:00.001+01:00

They have planted the wind and will harvest the whirlwind.
Who are they? They are those who put the base for the South Ossetian mess to develop, from one twist to another.

In November the elections, probably won by Alla Djoeva.
As her victory was then not recognized, Tskhinvali entered a deadlock. New elections were called, and Alla was denied to run again.
The then president Kokoity picked up the chance to try to spin out his mandate for other three months.

So badly did he and his krysha ruled the country, that he had managed to mine his popularity and foreign support to the extent that to kick him off an agreement was reached.
A gentlemen agreement, between a gentle-lady and no-gentle- men, apparently.
According to such agreement, Alla was to run for renew elections in March, if/and only if, Kokoity left and his bravi - chief prosecutor and chairman of the supreme court- were removed, as well.
Alla'a supporters returned home. Squares empty, no snow revolution, back to election campaign.

And here manoeuvring started again: Kokoity's party, the majority in the Parliament, voted down the resignation of the two bravi, on the 14th of December.
One month of unofficial negotiations, power struggle, all and more. Eventually on the 17th of January the new twist: Alla doesn't recognize as legitimate the "re-run" elections, she reclaims her victory and urges the acting president to step down.

So, as she doesn't recognize the elections, she won't be allowed to present the documents for candidacy.
Back to the before-agreement positions, but with a variation: now Jambolat Tedeev, who was not allowed to run in November and who cast his support to Alla, announces that he plans to run.
And - frankly speaking - he's popular and powerful enough to have hopes, if...

...if the wild won't get wilder.
He's a man who creates problem.
If for South Ossetian krysha Alla was too much, how much is Jambolat?

Wasn't it easier, possibly, to deal with her and to accept election results, instead of twisting into the wild?

A few infos...

2012-01-16T15:29:00.002+01:00

... about my recently published book, Georgia, twenty years after USSR.
On line on the Portal on Central Eastern and Balcan Europe. Chapter-by-chapter short résumé available
http://www.pecob.eu/flex/cm/pages/ServeBLOB.php/L/EN/IDPagina/3368

Week 02-08 Dec.: Peace at home, peace in the world

2012-01-09T19:04:00.000+01:00

According to Azerbaijani sources, in 2011, 774 violations of the ceasefire have been recorded, which resulted in 19 casualties.
2011 was one of the worst year, since the suspension of fights thanks to the ceasefire.
If the trend goes on in 2012 - as it seems to be the case - this should be called an un-ceasefire.
As suggested before, there's a strong need for additional measures of conflict prevention on the line of contact, from a hotline to a most desirable demilitarized area.

And it's hardly what can be inferred Sargsyan suggested during his "new year visit" to Karabakh, as a previous Karabakhi commander.
And Parliamentary elections are getting closer. No one would like to stir an unpopular topic.
But is the escalation of violence along the line of contact popular?

As for the elections: should they be expected to be just selections?
Probably not. The ruling Republican Party has not a pair challenger, but still it's quite predictable that there will be more room for the opposition, in the preferences of voters.
How much it's hard to say.
Some may collect the fruits of everyday stubborn work of party-to-people meetings, like Raffi Hovanissyan.
Some, the fruits of mass mobilizations and "radical" opposition, like Levon Ter Petrosyan.

Whatever, it should be welcome to have a more representative and mixed parliament. It would help to share responsibilities (it the oppositions manage to have something more than 6 seats or the like), and so to defuse political tension. And to have someone - hopefully- able to restrain the power of oligarchs' lobbies which crystallized around the Republican party in more than a decade of power.
Society has started some time ago to resent from this perceived boundless power of the oligarchs. In long term, this might be destabilizing.

So far the fight is much more the electoral law, which the majority has not intention to change.
And speculations about how elections will be free and fair, and if a 2008 after election scenario is possible now.
Use of force before Presidential elections is not advisable, on the side of a potential candidate. Sargsyan may have this concept clear in mind, after the Russian example in December...

Is it going to happen ANY change?
ANY hope to stop the daily violation of the ceasefire?

Someone else (really else...) said: Yurtta barış dünyada barış

Week 26 Dec.-1 Jan 2012: Huge expectations!

2012-01-02T20:47:00.002+01:00

A new year started, full of hopes and expectations.

In Georgia the political debate in the last week of the year was dominated by the adoption of the amendments to the electoral code.
According to the Draft Opinion (DO) expressed by the Venice Commission of Democracy through Law and OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, the amendments are source of concerns. Local organizations share this opinion and called the president not to sign the law.
No way.

Paragraph 67 of the DO underlines that "Article 45(4) of the draft Code prohibits aliens from participating in election campaigns. This prohibition is also problematic. The rights of freedom of expression and association, according to Articles 10 and 11 of the European Convention of Human Rights, belong to all
persons within the jurisdiction of a member State. Even if non-citizens (stateless and alien residents) do not have the right to vote, they do have the right to freely express their opinion, associate and participate in political debates during election campaigns. Such a clause limits fundamental rights of non-citizens residing in Georgia and conflicts with the basic human rights protected by the regional and global international conventions recognised by Council of Europe member states and OSCE states. The OSCE/ODIHR and Venice Commission recommend that this prohibition be deleted from Article 45(4)."

Bidzina Ivanishvili may be prevented not only to run for elections but also to turn his movement into a party.

President Saakashvili spent the new year eve with soldier. And he was most probably the more "militant" among them. He thus addressed his army " [...] Of course our country has a lot to worry about. A part of it is occupied by the enemy.[...] We are meeting tomorrow with the hope that we will free our country and help it stand up proudly. We will never kneel before the enemy and those whose desire is to destroy Georgia. I would like to recall our guys who have fallen. Everyone in this lineup, we are all soldiers."
These his words, in the Military base of Adlia, before meeting the Spanish singer Julio Iglesias, and before adding, in his TV New Year address to the Nation "I am absolutely sure that the empire will inevitably fall, Georgia will eventually be liberated and I want us to establish the tradition of congratulating each other [New Year] by saying ‘next year in Sokhumi".

Huge expectations...

On Holiday!

2011-12-26T16:18:00.001+01:00

Week 12-18 Dec.: Never enough

2011-12-18T18:03:00.000+01:00

Apparently, the claim of 200 violations of the ceasefire in the period 4-10 December, according to the Azerbaijan Ministry of Defence, or 11 000 in one year (Nagorno Karabakh MD) are not enough.
Another Ministry of Defence, the Russian one, quotes Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Grigory Karazin, before the 18th Session of the Geneva Discussions: "[...] safety in the Transcaucasia region. There, it's a new situation, and there's no escape, may our partners in Geneva like it or not. The only alternative to the negotiation process that takes into account the new political and legal relations in the region can only be a new war. I hope that is aware everywhere, including in Tbilisi."

What 's the new situation?
The recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by the Russian Federation or there's something more, that can be traced in the Armenian fears?
The fear to be in the front line in case of an attack against Iran, for example. Perhaps not only, if this is also not enough.
So, the low intensity conflict over Karabakh has now a potential twin, or more, because such an escalation in a volatile region like South Caucasus is totally unpredictable.

First of all there's the issue of the Russian military base in Gyumri, which relies on Iran as a transit area for supplies. What if they may happen to be cut? Georgia would be the only alternative. But how, predictably without an agreement between Tbilisi and Moscow?
The threat of a strike against Iran (or Syria?) has already consequences. Russia is strengthening its military presence in Caucasus, on the Black Sea, on the Caspian Sea. Just in case.

What if the case from in posse becomes in esse?
May be, from the same fear of possible conflicts, stems the police build up on another border, the one between Armenia and Georgia.
So it's claimed by Armenia now which states that "A few days ago four more police stations have been established in Samtskhe-Javakheti (just imagine: in villages, in immediate proximity to the Georgian-Armenian border, police stations have opened with a 9-13-people staff)" (http://www.armenianow.com/news/33878/armenia_georgia_diaspora_javakhk), allegedly a measure against the Armenian minority in Georgia. What if it's true but it's a preemptive measure against a possible war?

The only question is: which war?
Nagorno Karabakh, which now clearly means a potential inter-state war, Armenia/Azerbaijan, and not a secessionist conflict, or something not generated in the region, but swallowing it?
Never enough?!

Week 5-11 Dec.: Ipse dixit

2011-12-12T15:11:00.001+01:00

The way out was found in South Ossetia.
On the 10th an agreement was signed between Alla Dzhoeva and Eduard Kokoity.
Quite interesting in the document, Alla Dzhoeva is defined as "the leader of the opposition".If she won the election, she's not the leader of the opposition.

For sure she represent the opposition to Eduard Kokoity. But he's no longer the president. He had to resign, and she had to accept new elections.
According to point 1.1 of the agreement Alla Dzhoeva pledges to "Recognize the decision of the Parliament of ROS on the convening of a new election of the President of the Republic of South Ossetia, March 25, 2012."

He resigned, but he didn't give up... few manoeuvring before leaving, to armour his future.
Some supporters of Alla Dzhoeva will not like it. But so far this exit strategy is working. Tension has been defused and somehow violations had to be faced in their consequences, and no violence spread in the street of Tshkhinvali. Kokoity had pledged in the agreement, point 2.3. to guarantee with regard to their political opinion, the security and immunity to A. Dzhioeva and her supporters who participated in street actions on the Theatre Square. Ipse dixit, or I'd better say, sic subscriptum.

The acting President Vadim Brovtsev will lead the "country" till March.
Let's see how Mr. Kokoity will accept this step back. For sure, he had to sign an agreement Russia guarantees for, but there's no hope to have a reasonable additional gentlemen agreement from his side, to give up all his privileges and to stop pulling strings...

Russia is no longer in trouble with the "Snow revolution" of South Ossetia, now it has to cope with its own so called "white revolution".
Is there a more pleasant thing to Georgian president Saakashvili than to see Putin contested? On Dec. 12 the Georgian presidency issued the following statement:
"We express our sympathy to the Russian people who are today fighting the same injustice the victim of which is not only the Russian society but also the occupied regions of Georgia. XXI century has no room for regimes that try to topple the choice of liberty of its own people and neighboring states."
Ipse dixit.

Week 28th Nov.-4th Dec.: Looking for an exit strategy

2011-12-04T17:59:00.001+01:00

The distressing mess of South Ossetian so called "Presidential elections" goes on.
Is it going to be a never ending story till 25 March 2012, when new elections are supposed to be held?
Or a violent twist will eventually kick Eduard Kokoiy out of the presidential chair before then?

Last week, after it was made public by the "Central Election Commission" that Alla Dzhioeva might have won with 58,86% votes, the Supreme Court, chaired by Kokoity's man Atzamaz Bichekov, decleared the vote not valid and fixed new elections for next year. Four more months of Kokoity, something that voters and Bibilov and Dzhioeva and the Kremlin aren't for sure happy about.

Dzhioeva laid her claim to the Supreme Court as well, and today Bichekov declared that her claim will be processed, in due time.
But meanwhile her supporters keep on protesting. And as she seems to have fallen sick, Anatoly Barankevich is playing a more important role in going on with official meetings and negotiations.

Moscow sent Sergey Vinokurov to untie the knot. Before his arrival, Dzioeva held a meeting in the Russian Embassy in Tskhinvali, and it was her first political meeting after she had proclaimed herself the new president.
From the pages of Kommersant' she pledged loyalty to Moscow, and stressed to be Russian, by passport and in her soul.
It all makes more clear that this allegedly "snow revolution" is not against Russia, but against Kokoity. And that the exit strategy passes through his departure and a new resolution of the Supreme Court, may be with a new chairperson.

Dzhoeva and Barankevich have been so far not radical but firm. They are not going to be persuaded to give up that easily, even if Alla would be allowed to run for presidency next March.

An even less easy exit strategy must be found for Karabakh, not to find a political agreement, that seems right now totally out of reach, but to halt the escalation of violence.
Religious leaders from Armenia and Azerbaijan took the field... Inshallah (& for God's sake!)!

Week 21-27 Nov.: A letter of protest. Or more.

2011-11-28T10:28:00.000+01:00

A tense week in the region of South Caucasus.

The results of the -so called- Presidential elections in South Ossetia are still under dispute.
One thing is for sure: the great looser is (ex) President Kokoity. "His" candidate failed and his suggestion that a woman cannot be a President in South Caucasus might only have helped Alla Jioyeva to gain more votes.
Not to mention the open support of the partially already de-legitimized Dmitry Medvedev to candidate Anatoly Bibilov.

Waiting for the South Ossetian knot to be untied, let's turn to the other fronts of tension.
Iran-Azerbaijan relations were recently complicated by a crossing accident. Akbar Gasanpur, a 20-year- old soldier, was killed at the border between the two States, presumably after having tried to cross unproperly, last month. An Iranian letter of protest followed.

And again, last week, a plot, allegedly generated in some conservative circles of Iran, brought to death an Azerbaijani journalist, Rafig Tagi. He was stabbed by two assailants and lately died in hospital. Grand Ayatollah Fazel Lankarani last month called for his death for a critical article he had written about Iran Government.
An investigation will follow.
Iran has already officially denied any involvement, but still such rumours won't help mutual relations and perceptions.

And talking about bad mutual relations, Azerbaijani-Armenian ones cannot simply be ignored.
Daily claims of violation of the ceasefire went on for all the week, as in the last three months, almost.
The alarming stage of low intensity conflict is consolidating, and as such it is not sustainable.

In Venice

2011-11-20T18:14:00.001+01:00

University Ca' Foscari, "Caucaso e Asia Centrale vent'anni dopo il crollo dell'URSS"
http://62.149.217.252:8092/asiac/space/start/Programma%20ConvegnoDEF.pdf

Sorry!

2011-11-14T13:35:00.001+01:00

Too busy!

Week 31 Oct.-6 Nov.: The need of enlightenment

2011-11-07T17:20:00.000+01:00

There are few words as pleasant as enlightenment.
There are few people pleasant as enlightened ones.
And there are few places where enlightened people are needed as the Caucasus.

It's deep dark between Armenia, Nagorno Karabakh, Azerbaijan.
It's actually worse than darkness, it's, as suggested before, a low intensity conflict.
The last casualty was buried on the 4th, in Ganja. And this is what the Ministry of Defence of Azerbaijan reported for the month of October: 64 violation of the ceasefire, 3 killed, 3 wounded. It's definetely a war bulletin.

The Minsk Group co-chairs Ambassadors Bernard Fassier of France, Robert Bradtke of the United States, and Igor Popov of the Russian Federation and Ambassador Andrzej Kasprzyk (Personal Representative of the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office) presented their annual report, stating that "Co-Chairs also reiterated that there is no military solution and that political will by the sides is essential for them to make the difficult decisions required to move beyond the unacceptable status quo and achieve peace." (http://www.osce.org/mg/84738)
With a bit of enlightenment...

A light is shining, on the other side, at the end of the tunnel of Russian accession to WTO.
Ten days after USA ok, on the 21st October Europe gave its green light.
And the pressing on Georgia grew more and more.
During this week, apparently, and agreement was achieved, with the relief of the parties, and partners.
But before commenting it, let's wait for the last stages of accession.
And let's see how pragmatic and how enlightened it is.

Week 24-30 Oct.: Integration in the "Eurasia Union", a relative concept

2011-10-30T12:26:00.001+01:00

The last week of October was marked by an intense activity in the field of EU-South Caucasus relations.
Both the Council and the Commission had their staff in the region, in the persons of the Special Representative and the EC director for Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus, and Central Asia, Gunnar Wiegand.

The last reassured Armenian counterpart that the free-trade deal signed with Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, and Tajikistan in the framework of CIS system will not hinder a possible Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area with EU. This is in line with what Vladimir Putin suggested, in his well know article/manifesto "A new integration project for Eurasia: the future in making".

The point is he meaning of the concept of "integration".
In EU wording, integration means a common environment, or - recalling EU commissioner for Taxation and Custom Union Algiras Shemeta's speach (http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=SPEECH/11/694&format=HTML&aged=0&language=EN&guiLanguage=en)- convergence of legislation and procedures.
In the expectation of many observers and citizens of South Caucasus, EU integration means membership. Being integrated in EU would mean being a EU State.
In fact, membership implies integration, but not necessary vice versa.

It is a bit puzzling to understand what Putin means for integration. A part of the article published by Izvestija is dedicated to a comparison between the Eurasia project and the EU one. There are of course references to the Soviet legacy. The Soviet Union was, by the way, not an integrated system, but a single system.
So, in a scale from "a single system" to "reinforced agreements between states", where is the Eurasia Union located? And where the South Caucasus in the Eurasia Union?

Describing this Union, Putin defines it as a "supernational association" and an open project with unified standards and regulations for goods and services. It sounds like a pragmatic economic plan to coordinate and integrate different economies on the basis of a topic agenda.

Will this project attract the attention of the Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan?
For Georgia, ça va sans dire, no.
Armenia and Azerbaijan will probably decide step by step.
A lot will depend on how much this "Eurasia Union" is a feasible project.
And on what "integration" means.

Week 17-23 Oct.: Press the refresh button

2011-10-24T15:37:00.002+02:00

It's weeks, if not two full months, that on daily basis Azerbaijani authorities blame "Armenians" of violaions of the cease-fire.
This week, in connection with military exercises in Karabakh, it was claimed a massive violation of 260 episodes dated back to the previous days.
Minsk Group mission is keeping the situation under observation, but clearly all these allegations, may they be proved to be baseless or not, are the evidence that something is going on.
If the exchange of fire is indeed daily and to mentioned extent, it means that the cease-fire is no longer working and that the situation is turning from a "frozen" conflict to a low intensity one.

In such a case, it could be the right moment to re-discuss the terms of the cease-fire and include in a new negotiation provisions about separation of forces and de-militarized areas. Due to conflicting regional interests, most probably talking about an international monitoring mission is rather premature. Anyway, the present tools to prevent an escalation of the conflict appear right now not enough, and it's high time to press the refresh button before it's really too late.

On the opposite, the cease-fire keeps working in Georgian disputed territories. Incident Prevention and Response Mechanism is effective. A positive example which shouldn't be ruled out for the Karabakh case, with all the needed variants.
On the 21st the most shaky IPRM - the Ossetian-Georgian one - took place and
"The participants discussed recent incidents and circumstances of detentions that took place at or close to the Administrative Boundary Line. Safety measures of agricultural workers in the adjacent areas were discussed in detail, as well as methods of facilitating freedom of movement. The participants touched upon issues of a humanitarian nature, such as the implementation of water and gas projects in the region." (http://www.eumm.eu/en/press_and_public_information/press_releases/2830/)

Refresh button for the Georgian opposition, as well?
After the failure of Alasania in being a popular alternative to Saakashvili, another name may emerge. And as in the case of Alasania, he's winning the attention of international media probably much more than of national ones. So far Bidzina Ivanishvili is gaining spaces in the domestic media in connection with his negotiations with opposition leaders (and the tense relations with the Labour Party). He is referred to as the billionaire, or the tycoon by Rustavi2. Not a promising start.
If he hopes to win the hearts and minds of Georgians by next year elections, he will need to do much more than just being returned his Georgian citizenship.

In Bishkek

2011-10-17T06:34:00.000+02:00

The Central Asian Studies Institute (CASI) of American University of Central Asia, first annual international conference, "Twenty Years of Central Asian Independence: Shared Past, Separate
Paths?"

http://auca.kg/en/news_and_events/

Week 3-9 Oct.: One step too far

2011-10-10T10:48:00.001+02:00

XVII Session of the Geneva International Discussions, diplomatic visits and "presidential" revivals: and a bit above the lines.

As for the first, it was the last session with the participation of who was the engine of the Discussions, from the very beginning, the Special Representative for Crisis in Georgia appointed in 2008, Pierre Morel.
His successor, Philippe Lefort inherits a not easy task. The second working group is practically stuck and not all the parties are actively attending to its work. Moreover, the statement by the Georgian side is very assertive. It gives the impression that Tbilisi is really trying to push Russia in the corner. The references to the "terrorist acts undertaken by the Russian special services on the territory"(www.mfa.gov.ge/index.php?lang_id=ENG&sec_id=59&info_id=14290) is somehow disturbing in the wording. The allegation is so severe that - before a proper investigation - no final assessment should be formulated.

Georgia found some encouragement by the words of French President Sarkozy, who toured the region. Welcome like a national hero, for having brooked the cease-fire, he held a speech in Liberty Square. Not all his statements may have met the expectations of his hosts, but one sentence immediately echoed everywhere: that Georgia "must be free to express its aspiration to move towards the European Union and to one day join it" and “As far as I am concerned, when I am in Tbilisi, I feel like I am in Europe.” Words with a different shade than the once pronounced usually by Brussels officials who usually refer to integration and not to membership. Words who will remain well impressed in the mind of the Georgian public and that are to create a lot of expectations.
In the meanwhile, Ankvab visited for the first time the Kremlin in his official role of new "President" of Abkhazia.

In Armenia, Levon Ter Petrosyan is in the streets again. A city of tents, which recalls the similar - unsuccessful - initiative undertaken more or less with the same modalities and with similar aims by Georgian opposition in 2009. Or by himself in 2008, but when it was to protest again election alleged frauds. And it ended up very badly.
A revival? with the claims of Kocharyan that he may go back to politics and run for presidency, it looks like a revival not of 2008, but of 1998.
I think that the point is not who will manage to get more votes, but how to drag Armenians to the ballot boxes, with the presidential mandate permanently bouncing among the same people...
Kocharyan suggests there' s a strong demand for his commitment. Well, it sound like a bold comment...

In Moscow

2011-10-02T11:34:00.002+02:00

ДВАДЦАТЬ ЛЕТ СПУСТЯ (1991-2011): РЕОРГАНИЗАЦИЯ ПРОСТРАНСТВА И ИДЕНТИЧНОСТИ
TWENTY YEARS LATER (1991-2011): THE RESHAPING OF SPACE AND IDENTITY

Институт этнологии и антропологии РАН (Москва)
Франко-Российский исследовательский центр (Москва)
Российский государственный гуманитарный университет (Москва)
Ассоциация по изучению национальностей (Нью-Йорк)

Institute of Ethnology and Anthropology RAN (Moscow)
Centre d’études franco-russe (Moscow)
Russian State University for the Humanities (Moscow)
Association for the Study of Nationalities (New-York)

The unspoken words of infrastructures

2011-09-23T11:44:00.002+02:00

Much of human communication is nonverbal. People understand each other without talking, just decoding postures, gestures, clothing and more. Much of the communication between countries is silent, as well. It goes through infrastructures.
By their nature, infrastructures require substantial investments and planning in the medium-long term. It means that they are the test of the strategic choices of a country, not just in the energy sector, but in everything concerning the crossing of goods, people and communications, integration: railways, bridges, roads, canals, antennas and telecommunications networks, pipelines, hydroelectric plants.

Moscow-Sukhumi, by train
The railway that runs from Gagra, Sukhumi, Ochamchire and Gali district to Zugdidi, on to Tbilisi, is not working from ages. In 2003, Putin and Shevardnadze discussed the possibility of reactivating the Sochi-Sukhumi- Zugdidi branch, within the framework of the Process of Sochi to solve the Abkhazian-Georgian frozen conflict. The conflict would have started anew right after - in May 2008 - an additional group of Russian peacekeepers had rehabilitated the line Ochamchire-Sukhumi. After the war, the railway line has been the subject of further rehabilitation carried out by employees of the Russian railways, four of whom died in an accident last February. On 30 June the line Moscow-Sochi-Sukhumi started its service, with the train No 75 which runs a previously national route, now "international".
The broken and crumbling bridge of Shamgona, built by German prisoners, which joins Mingrelia and Abkhazia, is nothing but a rusty walkway. When it’s said to "sever ties" with the past ...

Many holes and one tunnel
A useless railway bridge and a bumpy road, the one that starts from the Ruki bridge over the river Enguri, the only officially crossing point the Abkhazian-Georgian "border", and passes through Gali district, inhabited by Mingrelian: Abkhazia seems to have made his choice of economic integration. But not Georgia: during the works of modernization of the East-West Georgian highway in November 2009, President Saakashvili stated that the new motorway would arrive to Sukhumi. From the Gali road, full of holes and cracks on the asphalt that worsen from year to year, are supposed to pass the 250 000 displaced people returning to the legitimate possession? A project that for the moment remains on paper.
On the other side, what is emerging from paper is another very significant project, which is also tied to an infrastructure that played an important role in the 2008 conflict, the Roki Tunnel. The tunnel, approximately 4 km long, passes beneath the Greater Caucasus mountain range and allows the passage from Russia (North Ossetia-Alania) to South Ossetia. The exact time of the crossing of Russian troops (around 23.00, August 7th according to the reconstruction of Georgian authorities, after 14.00, August 08th, according to the Russian ones) was a matter of discussion, whether the Russian intervention in Georgian-Ossetian clashes of 2008 was offensive or defensive in nature. Now the Russian government is pushing for a renewal of the tunnel, with works scheduled for 2012. The issue is delicate because on the Roki tunnel depend the supplies of South Ossetia, and its traffic, levied, is a relevant sources of revenue.

Basic Services
Not everything in South Ossetia, however, depends exclusively on the Roki tunnel. Water and gas system was born as integrated with the Georgian one. After the war especially the Akhalgori district, which until 2008 fell under the sovereignty of Tbilisi, was often deprived of these essential services. OSCE, which until the war had its own mission in the area, tried its best to have the two networks restored to full capacity. In addition to the OSCE, the Red Cross has been active on the issue of access to water. In July it started a program of modernization of the sewer around Tskhinvali. But the main concern is always Akhalgori. In June, the Lithuanian OSCE Chairmanship launched the Nikosi project. The project, agreed in the framework of the Geneva Discussions, aims to ensure access to water on both sides of the ceasefire line (http://www. osce.org/cio/78763).

Information
While OSCE tries to implement humanitarian projects that bring together, Tskhinvali starts projects with the aim to settle the division, and right there, in Akhalgori. The district, which passed after the war under the de facto sovereignty of Tskhinvali, did not receive until last July Ossetian television channels. On the 14th July a repeater was inaugurated. Located at 2500 meters it provides coverage to the district and make accessible Russian and Ossetian broadcast channels. The signal also reaches Gori, Mskheta and the heights of Tbilisi. Information warfare is one of the most important, and it is worth remembering that Tbilisi launched a satellite television Kavkaz1, in Russian, which reached the North Caucasus. Its broadcast was suspended because of the interruption of satellite service. According to the Georgian side, the French satellite operator was forced to cut the supply contract under Russian pressure. The channel started to broadcast in January with the name of PIK (Perviy Informatsionniy Kavkazsky).

Energy
Georgian information points to the North, while its new power station heads to the South. On September 09th, President Saakashvili visited the construction of hydroelectric plant Paravani (Akhalkalaki) that - once in service, in 2013 - should be able to sell electricity to Turkey during summer. The plant is one of three planned by the Georgian-Turkish agreement of last February, which followed a previous contract (November 2010) guaranteeing the Turkish Kolin Construction Company the construction of a network of stations on the river Tekhuri which should produce 105.7 megawatts.
While Georgia pushes its energy potential in the regional context, Azerbaijan tries to optimize its own. And the potential of the latter, as known, are hydrocarbons. At the end of the month the country will receive the visit of British Minister for Energy and Climate Changes, Charles Hendry. The visit could be the seal of the statements on the exploitation of the new field of gas (estimated potential of 500 square meters) of Shafag-Asiman. England has its share in the investment. Parallel to new exploitations, the race for export routes remains open. This is a separate chapter in the complex world of hydrocarbons. The allegedly eternal competition between Nabucco, the European project, and South Stream, the Russian project - one or the other? One and the other? – seems to be lead by the logic of the first passes the post. An assertive Gazprom would like to conclude with a signature in Sochi, September 16th, that would open the way to the birth of southern twin of North Stream which would ensure the transit of Caucasian/Caspian hydrocarbons through Russia.

One is missing
In the regional projects and counter-projects, Armenia is noted for its absence. Dependent on wheel and rail routes through Georgia, tied to energy supplies from Iran, its isolation increases to the extent that others are integrated. This process is so flagrant to cause concern to some analysts as if it was not a consequence of the political process, but a strategy developed by the Turkish and Azerbaijani leadership to reduce the country to be more submissive. Surely hydrocarbon market is a playfield of political games, in the Caucasus as elsewhere. But especially when projects involve third actors, it is difficult to make them bend to the needs of a single party. A reading of this kind by Armenian experts reveals how deep encirclement psychosis went, and thus how threatening may sound the voices of infrastructures to the landlocked Republic of Armenia.

(Article, in Italian, http://www.balcanicaucaso.org/aree/Georgia/Caucaso-le-infrastrutture-che-dividono-103241)

Coming soon...

2011-09-19T17:58:00.002+02:00

Week 5-11 Sept.: The ball rolls...

2011-09-13T10:37:00.001+02:00

Some times ago there were much speculations about what was going to happen with the EU Special Representatives.
After the implementation of the Lisbon Treaty, some suggested that as the position of Special Representative was not foreseen, they would all disappear. Others claimed that they would exist, as long as no all countries they were in charge of had an EU delegation. Others mentioned that a regional coordinator for some area was needed. Others quoted the US system, thus recommending to keep their position.

After all these speculations and hesitations, it seems that for now the Special Representatives (SR) have not found yet a proper replacer in the European External Action Service (EEAS). Still, a rotation of some of them is unavoidable. So Peter Semneby and Pierre Morel step back from their positions of Special Representative for the South Caucasus, the former, and Special Representative for the Crisis in Georgia, the latter. The two mandates have been bestowed on one person, Philippe Lefort.

In the notes of the EEAS his career his so summed up "Philippe Lefort is a French diplomat of more than 20 years' experience. He has devoted large parts of his career to the Caucasus and Russia, among other things as French Ambassador in Georgia (2004-2007) and as Deputy Head of Mission at the French Embassy in Russia (2007-2010). Since 2010, he has been the Head of Continental Europe General Directorate at the French Ministry of Foreign and European Affairs. On 1 September 2011, Ambassador Lefort started his duties as new EUSR for the South Caucasus."

It makes sense, somehow, to have two mandates focused on one region to be covered by one person. Indirectly, hopefully this will help the SR for the Crisis in Georgia to have a full picture of the impact of the protracted cease-fire at regional level and to sense how local actors feel about it.
At the beginning of the week, Philippe Lefort, who will be based in Brussels, made his first mission to the region. He met Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan, the Georgian Minister of Foreign Affaires Grigol Vashadze (President Michail Saakashvili was in Poland, attending the World Economic Forum).
He also met EU colleagues deployed in the region, like the new EUMM head of Mission, Andrzej Tyszkiewicz.
No visits to Tskhinvali and Sukhumi, which will probably take place in the framework of the Co-Chairs' pre-Geneva Discussions tour to the region. A cautious step, and politically correct.

Summertime is over, the ball rolls again. And anew.

Week 29h August - 04th September: You’ve made your bed, now you must lie in it!

2011-09-04T21:12:00.002+02:00

13 November is going to be elections and referendum day in Tskhinvali.
Presidential elections. After all the manoeuvring, it's clear that Eduard Kokoity is not going to try any trick to be re-elected. It would be his third mandate, and it's against constitutional provisions.
While elections process in Abkhazia went on quite smoothly, it's clear that the situation in South Ossetia is different. It's even clearer that South Ossetia is different.
According to unconfirmed rumours, a group consisting of officials from the Russian President’s administration, Federal Security Service, Foreign Intelligence Service, Ministry of Defense, Foreign Ministry, Ministry of Regional Development and administration of the Russian government shortlisted three names: Dmitry
Medoev, Zurab Kokoev, Anatoly Bibilov. The latter is more likely to be one of the candidates. (Civil.ge, Kommersant)

But it's South Ossetia, and to many the region means first of all the power of the Tadeev clan. And Anatolij Tadeev, wrestler and successful businessman has just come back home. He was welcomed by the explosion of a Neva car. He suffered no injuries. The same cannot be said about Alksander Bel'shakov, ex chief of the South Ossetian presidential administration, found dead. Investigations will follow.

It's a long way to November.
South Ossetia is a self proclaimed Republic. Russia recognized it.
You’ve made your bed, now you must lie in it...

From a wrestler to another. What's in the mind of Gagik Kolyai Tsarukyan?
With Armenia more and more in elections mood, the oligarch may feel confident enough to leave Sargsyan and try another combination, if not to run alone. The party has invested money (as he is not in shortage...) to re-define itself and be more credible. Doubtfully he's the kind to win the hearts and minds of Armenians.
As for the "opposition", apparently the dialogue between the Armenian National Congress (ANC) and the government fell apart. Incompatible positions or the ANC started to sense that the general public may not distinguish one old President from the other if they both sit at the same table?

Now what? What's the next smart step to take not to lose the what has been gained in terms of visibility and credibility during spring?
Another tough confrontation? What if it fails to mobilize people, who may happen to be more concerned about inflation and increasing prices?

You’ve made your bed, now you must lie in it!

Week 22-28 August: Elections in Abkhazia

2011-08-29T11:34:00.004+02:00

Election results in Abkhazia:
55% to Ankvab, sharp majority at first round, 21% to Sergey Shamba, 20% to Raul Khajimba. These results include the votes of Abkhazians who voted abroad, that is to say in Moscow and in Karachaevo-Circassia.

While few would have bet on the success of Khajimba, many would have had on Shamba. Khajimba was unsuccessful in Presidential Elections 2004 as well, while Shamba gained consensus as Minister of Foreign affaires. As such, he became known and – within the limits of the illegitimacy of his position – somehow popular among representatives of the international community for his moderation. Electoral outputs seem to reflect a sort of disappointment for his grey performance as Prime Minister, a position he covers from February 2010.

The vote puts an end to an electoral campaign which was assessed as competitive and fair, in line with the commitments the candidate agreed on at the end of July, upon the initiative of Khajimba. Still on the elections day, in Sukhumi a certain number of speznas were deployed, as a preventive measure. A pair of episodes unveiled what lies under the surface of fairness and order, rising up the less reassuring face of the “Republic”. Some supporters of Shamba organized an outdoor screening of a video interview with Tengiz Kitovani, in which Ankvab was accused to be a traitor who spied on behalf of Georgia militias during the war 1992-1994. The episode was followed by a close-door meeting which had the scope to prevent political confrontation from escalating, like it had happened in 2004, when Presidential results were close to cause an inner conflict. During the election campaign, Shamba occurred to have had a car accident, and some cast a shadow on this episode as well.

There's no recognition of the institutional role of Ankvab by the international community and by Tbilisi, where elections in Abkhazia are obviously considered illegitimate. It is interesting, on the other hand, to give the floor to the newly-elected President on his relationship with the State of Georgia, and the negotiations that affect them, as he himself described them in the interview “Abkhazia needs German order and billions of roubles” (http://top.rbc.ru/politics/29/06/2011/603052.shtml).: "I will not tie our relations with Georgia to the fact that Mikhail Saakashvili may or may not step down from Presidency. What is important is the policy that the State will express. We are even now ready to sign with Georgia a peace, a non use force agreement. This is our main task, to live in peace, in a good neighborhood. We don’t have aggressive plans and we are committed to somehow ensure a safe and normal life to our citizens, first of all to those who live in the border district of Gali. [...] What contacts do we have with Georgia? Our team had just returned from the Geneva session, and I'm not here to say that we have moved in some direction, but there is a dialogue. Geneva is important for us, because it is the square from which we turn to the outside world. It might be an ineffective way out, but it's a place where we can express our opinions. "

Full Article, "Osservatorio Balcani e Caucaso", http://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/aree/Abkhazia/Un-nuovo-presidente-per-l-Abkhazia-101919

Week 15-21 August: A question of time

2011-08-22T12:05:00.001+02:00

It's time to celebrate anniversaries... from now on till the end of the year, the 20th birthday of the the Soviet dis-Union will be remembered. August is the month of the so called failed coup in Moscow. Then most post Soviet States will mark their independence day.
With one eye turned to the past, the other one should be turned to the future. Is it possible?

Both eyes are wide open in Sukhumi, where the first post independence+partial recognition President is going to be elected. An episode of defamation (?) has been played against Ankvab which poisoned to a certain extent the pre-election period. Allegedly, a document made public accuses him to have been spying for Tbilisi during the war in the early 90ies. Meanwhile Shamba had a minor car accident.
So far it seems that no one can make at the first round. But it's just a question of time to check if polls really mirror voters' preferences. Elections are scheduled for the 26th.
Apart from pre-election dirty tricks, the transfer of power (or legitimation of the present ruling elite) will most probably be peaceful.

Going back to the memories of the last two decades, no cases of peaceful transfer of power were recorded in Georgia as universally recognized. And the bad trend is not improving. Again now, polarization prevails. Ex parliamentary Speaker, now opposition figure, Nino Burjanadze's husband has been sentenced to five years and six months in jail. The verdict of a Court always deserves respect. Still, whatever, however, whenever, whoever, personal confrontation seems always to be on the A list in Tbilisi.

In Yerevan the 5th round of the (somehow self declared) official opposition and the authorities took place. The opposition is taking distance from the most extremist fringes of its own base, now that it's sitting with the majority, and that it's clear that no spring revolution will take place in Armenia, and not just because it's August. Unless the crisis really strikes badly after the hot summer everybody is experiencing.
Dialogue should always be welcomed, but as the Armenian National Congress has built its present identity as an alternative to Sargsyan's power, will it be able to deliver a message of consistency? Isn't it locked in negotiations, now?

A question of time for Azerbaijan, as well.
During the Global Policy Forum, Yaroslavl 7-8 Sept, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Turkish President Abdullah Gül planned to dedicate some time to the discussion of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. The topic, hot on the agenda of the former, has definitely a regional dimension, but for Baku has a very special domestic one, as well.
No one expects big surprise by any meeting any more. But, who knows, it may be a question of time.

Holidays!

2011-08-14T13:49:00.000+02:00

For a week ;-)

Week 1-7 August: Who's who?

2011-08-08T11:15:00.000+02:00

Or who's WTO?
Georgia is, Russia not, Swiss mediates.

Three years passed since war erupted in Tskhinvali district and invasion started in western Georgia.
Then recognition, political stalemate and so far incompatible solutions, proposed by Georgia and Russia:
- Non use of force vs recognition (how to write a non use of force agreement with authorities who are not recognized as legitimate?);
- Returnees vs security (and demography...);
- Political will vs propaganda (and domestic consensus);
- Internationalization vs "spheres of influence";
And so on and on and on.
So may the Geneva Discussions last forever, and so EUMM?

Apparently yes.
What cannot last forever is the process of access to WTO. And Russia is waiting. WTO is waiting. And none of them likes to be kept waiting.
One obstacle was the Russia-Bielorus'-Kazakhstan agreement. But it seems not to be an issue any longer.
The other obstacle is Georgia's possible veto. In view of the international recognition of its border, it's a legitimate claim.
And, unless this will have the counter-effect to push more states towards recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which doesn't happen to be the case, it puts Georgia in the position to be the one who can tip the scale.

Medvedev, interviewed on the 5th talked mildly but firmly about this issue:
"Georgia has a position on Russia’s WTO accession. We respect that position as we respect the stance of any other sovereign state, as long as that position is in line with the goals set out in the WTO’s charter. Trade, trade preferences, customs regimes… we are ready to discuss it all. The imports of wine and mineral water? We will discuss anything. But the problem is something else. In essence, our colleagues in Georgia are trying to force on us a new edition of the political problem under the guise of WTO accession. I am referring to entry points, control over the traffic of goods, then they will want to get the EU involved… Our position on this is clear: if you want information about the traffic of goods, including transit through Abkhazia and South Ossetia, we will provide it via a modern electronic database. I have agreed to the suggestions made by the Swiss president regarding this and I recently discussed it with President Obama. We are ready to implement the model that Switzerland has proposed to us. However, if they try to change current political realities, serving it as a prerequisite for Russia’s WTO accession, we will not fall for it. WTO accession is not too high a price to pay here."
(full interview http://eng.kremlin.ru/news/2680).

Three rounds of negotiation took place in Switzerland.
A conciliatory result there could open the floor to more flexible positions in other fields.
Three years, no humanitarian issues measure agreed.
Whatever may shake this condition, should be welcome.

No shakes are welcome, on the contrary, between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Three violations of ceasefire claimed by Azerbaijan in three days. Disturbing allegations of a toy bomb targeted against children.
So, in the end, who's doing what?
Without a neutral monitor, it's hard to assess.

Week 25-31 July: Do ut des

2011-08-01T08:34:00.000+02:00

There's always at least one reason why things are the way they are.
And the reason is quite seldom a matter of principle.

Let's start with the meeting of Ilia II and Kirill. The Moscow Patriarcate is not recognizing the scism of the Sukhumi and Tskhinvali ones. Still, it's not ignoring the issue.
But if Sukhumi and Tskhinvali would ever be recognized as independent State churches, this would trigger Georgian recognition of the Ukrainian church.
So, not recognition in exchange of not recognition. Fair enough, someone would say.

And talking about Sukhumi: it's a hot August, for politics.
Elections are approaching and the three candidates - Sergey Shamba, Raul Khadjimba, Alexander Ankvab - have signed a charter for free and fair elections. The charter was proposed by the Forum for the Popular Union of Abkhazia, whose candidate is Khadjimba, in exchange of? Well, visibility, consensus... usual patterns in electoral campaign.
A gentlemen agreement to refrain from bad propaganda of to be stick to the best possible fair play would have been more elegant, probably... and less ambiguous as an assessment or a hint of the potential quality of elections, by the way.
The three tandems (presidential candidate+his vice president) are: Sergey Shamba+Shamil Adzimba; Alexander Ankvab+Mikhail Logua; Raul Khadjimba+Svetlana Dzhrgenija Ardzimba.
One woman, in exchange of her surname, being the widow of the first de facto President.

In Armenia, as well, rumours about elections are intensifying. And thus, elections or not, preparations are ongoing.
President Sargsyan may concede early parliamentary elections in exchange of what?
A democratic trump card (I called elections when asked, I made them be free and fair) to play during presidential elections campaign?
A shared responsibility- assuming that more opposition members might win parliamentary seats - in case of "phase 2" of Nagorno Karabakh talks?

But is there going to be a "phase 2" in Nagorno Karabakh talks?
Is it a card that Medvedev is considering to play for his presidential campaign? (Look: I am the man who solves decades-protracted conflicts, with force, when needed, with diplomacy, when possible)?

Nothing happens by chance.

Week 18-24 July: The Black Wave

2011-07-25T10:03:00.000+02:00

To a different extent, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan feel European.
Being European doesn't just mean to hope in membership in the EU, or in integration in the EU economic and social sphere, but share the processes that run across Europe.
Today painful awareness, time of sorrow, sense of powerlessness are spreading among those shocked Europeans who had been feeling uneasy for ages. All those who were concerned, hearing the propaganda of hate, seeing a model of social and cultural under-development replacing principles of enlightenment, humanity, trust in progress.

After the collapse of the big hopes of the previous century, petty glocalization and fears took the lead in many peoples' identities, turning them back to a mean conservatism whose main aim is to push back societies to what they had been eras ago, if ever.
A black wave floods Europe, bringing back a failed model.
What happened in Norway could have happened in Hungary, in Russia, or wherever the dreadful neo-con/neo-nazi movements are rooting (are rooted, indeed). Actually, what is surprising is that happened in Norway, not that it happened. For ages all the symptoms were ignored if not encouraged for short term political gains, in many countries.
It's high time to take a big breath and step back, for right wing, nationalist movements.

Does all this affect South Caucasus. Is the black wave touching its shores?
Somehow, yes. Independence has so far been coupled by an aggressive nationalism, often labelled by observers as a reaction to the Soviet period.
Well, 20 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the reaction should be exhausted and a more proactive and pragmatical approach to the re-organization of societies should be in progress. Nationalism so far led to the inability to start up virtuous spirals of state building and resulted in compromised territorial integrity, fragmentation of the corpus of citizens and limits in sovereignty, in regional isolation and poor performances in foreign policy at regional level.

It's the mechanism that antagonizes persons in Europe: rejection of differences, fears, search for an escaping goat.
In 2012 parliamentary elections will be held in Armenia and in Georgia. In 2013 Presidential elections in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia. A couple of years to reverse this self-destructive trend and submit to electors a brave new proposal.
Will anybody be so brave to draw a parallel, to declare the countries sick and in need to be cured of patriotisms that lead to mutual exclusions and to hate, extremism, amnesia of a common past? Will anybody voice their concern about a path that is leading nowhere?

Week 11-17 July: Красота спасет мир. Or may be not.

2011-07-17T09:04:00.001+02:00

Summer, sun, holidays.
Everybody wants to enjoy warmth&light, after a long winter, before another long one.
Youngsters pack their backpacks and check on websites or on the Holy Book, the Lonely Planet, wild, enjoyable, affordable places.

Since the Holy Book of backpackers released an edition on Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, the South Caucasus faced an increased number of budget travellers.
Many of them go hiking on the mountains, from Kazbegi to Aragats, spend some days in the characteristics Tbilisi downtown, mix with locals in Yerevan pubs and clubs, visit old Baku.
And then again into the wild, via marshrutka uphill, downhill, to monasteries, ruins, rivers, villages, thermal springs.

Tourists are fascinated by hospitality, variety (three countries, three alphabets, three languages, three religions...), the outstanding nature (and here again variety: from exotic flowers and palms to 5000 metres picks), unrecognized states... some of them, looking for an "adventurous" holiday, do their best to reach Karabakh, Abkhazia, South Ossetia.
You meet them in restaurants, questioning each other if with the Karabakh visa in the passport there will be problems upon entering Azerbaijan, or whether it would be better to pass via Iran to Nakhchivan and then...
There's one of the few places where all these political issues are just intriguing, and where the South Caucasus is nothing but a wonderful, united region, worthy to be travelled all over, up and down: a traveller's mind.

Summer festivals in cities, like the Golden Apricot International Festival in Yerevan, remind of the culture and of the art, both traditional and post-soviet, and of the existence of an intelligentija which doesn't enjoy the visibility it most probably deserves. Opened by a jazz concert in the sqaure in front of Moskva cinema, the Festival ends today, after having guested stars and intellectuals.

In this period of the year, in the bloom of tourist season, a refreshing breath of normality blows through the region.
Not that you need tourists for that, but somehow their presence reduces the perception of isolation. The diasporas come back, depopulated houses have their windows opened again.
It's the nice feeling that indeed, quoting the much inflated Dostojevskij's words, beauty will save the world.
Or may be not.

Still traveling...

2011-07-11T06:42:00.000+02:00

Sorry!

2011-07-04T09:59:00.003+02:00

@ Yerevan
International Conference 15 Years of Achievements:
Celebrating the 15th Anniversary of Iran and the Caucasus,
BRILL Academic Publishers
(Leiden-Boston)

Week 20-26 June: "Xождениe в народ"?

2011-06-26T13:33:00.005+02:00

A long series of betrayed hopes.
That's the only way to describe the mediation over Karabakh.
And it's sad to say, for the # time, "predictably, no agreement was reached". It's sad, frustrating and false.
Because every single failed meeting doesn't leave the situation the way it was before. No-decisions have as many consequences as decisions, and it's just an illusion to think that the status quo lasts forever unchanged.

At the beginning, 23 YEARS AGO, the path chosen was the military solution. Its consequences were dramatic and unacceptable. Displacement, isolation, nonrecognition, hate and regional instability.
Another military solution would have just the same consequences.

Then, 17 YEARS AGO, a political solution was tried. Just to wrap up all the possible settlements taken into consideration: the Curpus model, the Chechen Variant, the Praga Process, the "Common State", the asymmetric confederation and the Transcaucasian Confederation, the Paris Principles, the Andorra Variant, and more recently the Sochi and Kazan Russian sponsored initiatives, the last of which resulted in a joint statement.
In a nutshell its text says that the parties agreed that they will agree. Better than the opposite. BTW, everybody knows that the opposite means war.
And then all the meticulous work of filing of the Basic Principles would turn in nothing but wasted time.

In the meanwhile war&hate propaganda made the communities affected by the NK issue unable to accept any compromise. Inter-community confidence is extremely low and no serious measure is taken to reverse this condition which, itself, can prove to be an insurmountable hindrance to reach a peace. The consensus to Presidents over concessions is at stake and this most probably impacts their flexibility in negotiations. They are well aware of the radicalism widespread in the public opinion.
On the other end, who else if not the Presidents? any lower level meeting wouldn't be considered effective.

Why not, by the way?
It's clear that this stalemate is doomed to last long and the political solution is still very remote. In the meanwhile it will be helpful to try the Social Solutions.
Wise and smart initiatives were activated and facilitated. It's worthy to invest more on these, because no paper signed (if ever...) will prevent people from hating and potentially attacking each other.
People to people and CBM should become the standard good practice, together with common projects about security and de-escalation of tensions (similar to IPRMs and hotlines, to quote the Georgia sample), technical cross-communities activities and media coverage of successful co-operations.

Peace and compromises should be welcome, not imposed.
This must be felt with urgency.

Week 13-19 June: Spot the differences

2011-06-20T09:09:00.000+02:00

In the end, after denials and counter-denials, it seems that, yes, Vanuatu recognizes Abkhazia.
Vanuatu's clumsy, weird, queer recognition has - most surely heedlessly - set a precedent. For the first time the tandem Abkhazia-South Ossetia was set apart. All previous recognitions had affected both simultaneously.
Somehow this episode reflects what's actually going on. The two de factos are different, although the shared path of the last three years caused a mis-perception about their alleged parallelism.

It's a matter of population, resources, and why not? thou in a contest of illegality - for most of the international community - a matter of rule of law and internal sovereignty.
The death of "President" Bagapsh compels Sukhumi to hold early presidential elections. Next week the list of candidates will be drawn, but one assessment can already be made: there are the requisites for genuinely competitive elections, meaning that more than one potential candidate have sound reasons to hope for presidency. Acting president and Prime Minister can both have "Great Expectations".

The scenario is completely different in South Ossetia. Elections are scheduled for November. In the next five months anything can happen, if the last weeks are just a preview. Gasseyev's initiative to collect signatures to support a third term of "President" Kokoity ended into nothing. The "Supreme Court" ruled out its conformity to Constitutional provisions and... the "Parliament" had special, uninvited guests.
There are contradictory reports of an armed group entering the Parliament on the 15th. Rule of law doesn't seem to be on the A list of practices of Tskhinvali, once more.

So close, so far away.
And so close but still so far away are the words of Azerbaijani propaganda about Karabakh. Although an exchange of fire was reported on the 17th, it was not followed by the outcry of outrage, if not a threat of war, as it used to be some time ago. Tension eased a little bit, but everything is still on the plate.
So far, one can spot a difference, but only in words.

Week 6-12 June: Basic Principles

2011-06-13T11:02:00.000+02:00

Welcome developments in Armenia. Between the ruling party and "radical" opposition flexibility replaces polarization.
Basic principles of good governance, indeed.
Why now?

Levon Ter Petrosyan might have realized that his consensus and his ability to capitalize discontent are not enough to pursue the goal of removing the current leadership. For both opposition and majority, what happened in Georgia might have been food for thoughts. Embarrassing and de-legitimizing events which won't ever be encouraged, but - quite the opposite - discourage support. A path leading to the opposite direction of integration into EU, NATO, international diplomacy or whatever.
Aware of his weakness, he sought a way to maximize what he had gained so far. Being considered the counterpart of the President could be not that bad, for someone who scored 20% at the Presidential elections in 2008.

Serzh Sargsyan displayed once again his stability. He didn't lose his temper or allowed himself to make stupid mistakes like a violent repression of the opposition but, on the opposite, from the firm standpoint of someone who's ruling and wants to keep ruling for another mandate, tabled some measures which immediately met the international support (a proper place for oppositions' protests, amnesty, inquiry on 03/2008 events) and re-assure many Armenian voters about the moderate politics of the current leadership. Moreover he knows very well that the responsibilities of what happened in March 2008 fall first and foremost on then outgoing President Kocharyan's shoulders, and he may be interested in discrediting him. Already then, back to 2008, he dropped a couple of statements assessing that it was compulsory for him to fully agree with previous President's crisis management.

A good example of rational choices.
Something which was apparently missing in Georgia, with predictable results. Strong antagonizing is not paying back, internationally and domestically.
These basic principles may be needed also in view of other Basic Principles... those that ought to be signed in Kazan 06/25.
If - it would be better to say "IF"- whatever substantial is to be agreed AND signed AND then implemented about Karabakh, there cannot be much room for dissent. Sargsyan and Aliev will need an extremely high rate of consensus to make the civil society accept some sort of compromise. Unless they are ready to face a strong backlash in terms of popularity, if not social unrest.

Week 30 May-5 June: The Ambassadors

2011-06-05T22:09:00.002+02:00

Henry James in his novel The Ambassador might not have thought how weird the life of the diplomatic corps can be .
For the Abkhazian diplomats, first of all. Only partially recognized, Sukhumi had a week marked by ups and downs: the recognition by the Republic of Vanuatu, the loss of its President, Sergey Bagapsh.
Sergey Bagapsh was at his second term, he was the de facto President when Abkhazia was recognized as independent by - then - four states. The acting President is the Vice President, ex Prime Minister, Aleksander Ankvab. Sukhumi has now three months to organize and held Presidential elections. Ankvab could be one of the contenders, as well as the present Prime Minister Sergey Shamba. Most probably the Bagapsh circle will start an inner negotiation to present the most hopeful winning tandem, to compete against the two other most influential candidates of 2009, Beslan Butba and Raul Khadzhimba. On the occasion of his visit of condolence, Vladimir Putin was photographed with Ankvab and Shamba, due to their institutional roles.

As for recognition, Vanuatu is as puzzling as Nauru's precedent. What are these partners for? Is that just a display of weakness, to be unable to be recognized by countries that could play a more significant role in Abkhazian international development? Or is it done partially on purpose? A remote partner is a weak partner, a no alternative.
To Sukhumi diplomats to decide if the recognition is enough for itself.

Georgian, Armenian, Azerbaijani ambassadors in Rome were all busy to welcome their Heads of States, invited by the Italian one, Giorgio Napolitano, to celebrate 150 years of Italian unification on the occasion of the Republic day, 2nd of June. Beyond the official celebrations, it was a good chance to practice diplomacy.
Micheil Saakashvili held a meeting with US Vice President Joe Biden, together with a rich diplomatic delegation: the Minister of Economy and Sustainable Development Vera Kobalia, the Deputy Foreign Minister Tornike Gorgdadze, the Secretary of National Security Council Giga Bokeria. That is to say: business, foreign policy and...? The future president? For now, let's say security.

Ilham Aliev met other members of the Eastern Partnership, in particular Moldavians.
As for Armenian diplomacy, a presidential decree appointed the new Armenian Ambassador to Canada.
Ambassadors, ambassadors and ambassadors.
Alas to Henri James and his dark comedy. Life can be more than that.

2011-05-31T16:46:00.001+02:00

Sorry, too busy again

Week 16-22 May: No limits

2011-05-23T19:58:00.002+02:00

"The Parliament of Georgia,
taking into consideration the colonial politics of the Russian Empire towards Circassians during the Russian-Caucasian war (1763-1864)..."
So starts the draft resolution adopted by the Georgian Parliament in its plenary sitting. So Georgia is going to be the first country in the world to recognize the Circassian genocide. The reason for this recognition, in the words pronounced by the Chairman of the Committee on Diaspora and Caucasus Issues Nugzar Tsiklauri, seems far from being the purest human pity for what happened to Circassians two/one and half century ago: "Georgia and Tbilisi has always been the intellectual as well as political center of the Caucasus region. We would manage to return the leader’s function to Georgia in the region. Now is the moment of great Caucasus solidarity and consensus and solving the above-mentioned issue will contribute to a new political derivation”. (http://www.parliament.ge/index.php?lang_id=ENG&sec_id=63&info_id=31728)

So, if human rights violations have no time and space limits, so has not Georgian ambition, at least at regional level. Not by chance the text of the draft resolution is available in Russian from the web site of the Parliament. Doubtfully Russian is normally the language used for Georgian parliamentary resolutions.
The plenary session was held during the same week in which the Russian State Duma lower house was working on a special statement on counteracting terrorism and extremism, after a warning by the Interior Minister Rashid Nurgaliyev about the danger of high-profile terrorist attacks in the North Caucasus, theater of more than 150 terrorist attacks from the beginning of the year.
An issue that doesn't need a new alleged hegemonic competition, but - urgently - a limit.

No limits for Armenian-Azeri confrontations. A mass brawl between some members of the two communities, outside Moscow, resulted in one killed, 7 injured (gunshot).
Hate knows no territorial limits.

Week 9-15 May: Winners&Losers

2011-05-15T23:49:00.000+02:00

Azerbaijani singers won Eurovision, a highly popular (and highly politicized) competition.
So, next year Eurovision will be held in Baku. Speculations have already started about Armenian participation, for such a case.

In the same week Azerbaijan failed to win EU PA appreciation for its HR protections (EU PA resolution, 12 May).
The Parliamentary Assembly criticized the repression of the opposition. Among others, Eynulla Fatullayev is still in jail although ECHR has already ruled out the legitimacy of his detention.
HR protection/democracy represent the missing ring in the chain of Azerbaijani good relations with OSCE, EU, CoE. Perhaps, not the only ring. YAP party - that is to say the entire ruling elite of the country - complained to OSCE for the allegedly planned settlement of Armenian families in Nagorno-Karabakh. Let's say that HR/democracy are the benchmark for the Government flexibility to meet the international expectation, as much as Nagorno-Karabakh is for Azerbaijan's ones.
Frustrated expectations, so far, in both cases. All losers?

Talking about Parliaments, Armenia, and OSCE, it's worthy to recall the meeting between the Special Representative of the OSCE PA on Migration of the Parliament of the Netherlands Kathleen Ferrier and Hovik Abrahamyan, chairman of Armenian National Assembly. The first has to prepare a report on migration in Armenia, this summer. Waiting for the report to be issued, it cannot be forgotten the tragic situation of the losers among losers: Armenian women victim of human trafficking. Some measures were taken in the past, but there's room for improvement to stop this national shame.

And again talking about OSCE and international commitments in South Caucasus, Georgia and its breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia hosted the co-Chairs of the Geneva Discussions. Next session will be June the 7th and the UN, OSCE, EU chairmanship travelled to the region for negotiations with the parties. UN chairman, Antti Turunen, has won his battle to have his position, and that of his team, armoured. After months of uncertainty and dire tensions among UN member States (a couple in particular...) his mandate has been fully confirmed. This should legitimize and stabilize the chairmanship.
The format of the Geneva Discussions seems itself legitimate and stable, after more than two years of regular sessions. Still, on the 09 May Georgian Prime Minister mentioned a possible "enlargement of the negotiations", during his trip to Istanbul.

Who wants to win what?

Week 2-8 May: The internal enemy

2011-05-09T18:50:00.004+02:00

"Azerbaijan continues to escalate the situation with its repetitive statements that are below any standards of civilized dialogue", so Serzh Sargsyan on the 4th of May.
It's not to hard to find a mirror statement addressed against Armenia in the Azerbaijani press.
Allegedly enemies number one are for Armenia Azerbaijan, threatening its peace, for Azerbaijan Armenia, which prevents the first from exercising its sovereignty on Karabakh, for Georgia Russia, which is accused to do the same in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

This is a description of the situations on the ground, undeniably ignoring the role played by Sukhumi, Tskhinvali, Stepanakert.
But are really these pieces of territory the source of shortcomings in the exercise of sovereignty? Don't the three countries have a worst internal enemy, which may erode their economic, institutional, political, social, cultural bases to the point of no return, where they fail as States? This enemy doesn't know occupation, boundary lines. It's pervading, hard to stop, it mines the very roots of a modern State. It's called corruption.

Transparency International, in its just released European Neighbourhood Policy: Monitoring Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia anti-corruption commitments 2010, notes that "corruption is a poison to any reform process and is corrosive to efficiency and equality in public and private life" (www.transparency.org/publications/publications/enp_armenia_anticorruption2010, Armenia, p. 7. Following quotations are from the three reports).
The reports -Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan- cover three fields: justice, civil service, GRECO commitments. The overall picture is not encouraging, with Georgia doing generally best.
For all the three sectors it is analysed how things should be according to the legislation and how they are in practice, displaying how corruption affects rule of law, which itself is the backbone of a modern State. Where rule of law is deficient, its foes gain ground, that is to say privileges and abuses.

And that's how some procedures connected to the work of judges are described in the Armenia Report: "despite some progress in establishing a judiciary school, the appointment and promotion of judges continues in many cases to be based on patronage, kinship and personal contacts rather than on merit. (p.11)" with the foreseeable results that some of them won't be too devoted to the cause of justice. This may be one of the reasons why the justice systems has to face situations like the ones so described: "In many of the observed cases, judges manifested a prosecutorial bias. The report says that the perception that judges “walk hand in hand” with prosecutors undermines the impartiality of judges and the judiciary in general (p.16)", or "cases are very often delayed. The main reason is an expected gain, mainly in the form of a bribe to speed up the trial process. (p.20)"

As for Azerbaijan, its performances are improving. There's an ongoing anti-corruption campaign promoted by the President. Actually, a "campaign" is somehow not the right word to describe what's needed against corruption. A campaign is usually a short time special measure to accomplish a task, meet a deadline, prepare an event. Eradication of corruption needs short, middle and long terms measures, a change of cultural paradigm if not a re-frame of some segment of society.

Georgia's corruption, as emerges from the Report, seems more dependant on politics than strictly on money: "Promotion and rewarding/bonuses are thinly regulated and generally politicized. Political influences is evident when filling newly vacant position after reorganizations.(p. 22)". Political loyalty has a price, and it's where power and corruption meet to ensure continuity to the first. It's the well known process of abuse of its position by the ruling elite, and it's described in the report: "Practical enforcement of the regulations on separating the official state and party duties and activities is problematic. Misuse of administrative resources by the ruling party is consistently documented. State funded events are used for political agitation and high state officials routinely accompany candidates/are present at campaign-related events and meetings, while not on leave, and using state vehicles and security for transportation. (p.23)."

Caucasus Analytical Digest dedicated its last issue (n. 26, 26 April, www.res.ethz.ch/analysis/cad/) to corruption in Georgia. Underling the relevance of the connection between sovereignty and corruption it is stressed that "[...] Saakashvili’s project of building a strong state would not tolerate the existence of corruption that undermines the legitimacy of the ruling regime and works to distort the political system. The key element of Saakashvili’s state building project was fighting corruption [...]"
(Alexander Kupatadze, Similar Events, Different Outcomes: Accounting for Diverging Corruption Patterns in Post-Revolution Georgia and Ukraine, p. 3).

Good point, if it's both in laws and in practices.

Week 25-30 April: Guests, at home

2011-04-30T16:03:00.000+02:00

As last week post was devoted to guests coming from abroad, this week it's worthy to remind that guests sometimes aren't foreigners.

Is Musavat a political party of Azerbaijan or an unwelcome guest in the country?
Its offices were raided and the leader of its youth wing expelled from University, together with another Musavat activist.
Who's afraid of Musavat? It's not a terrorist association, it doesn't pose a threat to the ruling elite, it simply seems to have turned into a guest, after having been a part of Azerbaijani history for more than 100 years.

On the contrary, Poti had a special guest, warmly welcomed.
President Saakashvili visited the small town to celebrate the installation of a new radar. He picked up the chance to convoy his vision of Poti and its area in the future: "Port of Poti would become a main gait from the countries of Northern China and Middle Asian Countries in the direction of Europe. Poti will become a 100 percent employment city and we would even have deficiency in finding cadres [...]. Our aim is to activate Poti International airport by 2012. It will be an airport that would be able to operate in any weather conditions. [...] We are assuming that in 2012 more than two million tourists will visit Batumi and places nearby. Poti will also cover Mestia, which will become the most famous and successful skiing resorts minimum in Eastern Europe. Poti airport will also cover Anaklia that is on 15 km drive from here. A road will be constructed from Poti to Anaklia as well and Anaklia will be the most developed sea resort in Georgia and in 6 countries of black-sea region." (http://www.president.gov.ge/index.php?lang_id=ENG&sec_id=228&info_id=6350)
What seems alien here is Poti itself, the way it is now.

From Georgia to Armenia.
And the trend is exactly this, not only on the route of import, but also on the path of reforms. Armenia sounds very interested in Georgia experience. Its own way, for sure.
"Armenian way" has proved to be a good remedy against bloody confrontation, so far. After the "deadline" posed by Levon Ter-Petrosyan, 2 out of 3 requests were met by President Sargsyan. Who could go so far as to meet also the third one (release of political prisoners of 2008) and keep the door open, to quote Ter-Petrosyan.
What's behind this new phase? Sargsyan in his first mandate proved to be a firm and stable president, his level of alert towards opposition may be low. Ter-Petrosyan tried his best to ride the wave of revolution, which proved to be an hazard/ a miscalculation. Now he's drawing a new strategy, that may put him at odds with the expectations of a part of his potential electorate.
For many, he may turn from a leader to a guest.

There are a lot of speculation about parliamentary elections in 2012, now that Prosperous Armenia made public that it will run alone.
Who knows, Sargsyan in long term may find convenient to meet even a radical request like early elections, under the pretest of a fragmentation of the winning bloc of 2008. Early parliamentary elections AND early presidential election in 2012. After all, he wouldn't be the only president in CIS countries to try and avoid 2013 to have his mandate renewed.
Unlikely, but not impossible.

Week 18-24 April: Guests

2011-04-25T19:00:00.008+02:00

In these days Catholics welcome guests for Easter.
South Caucasus welcomes guests for many reasons.

Coucil of Europe Human Rights Commissioner Thomas Hammarberg visited Georgia. In the last two years he played a positive role in sustaining the security sector in the country, being involved in post-conflict episodes of escalation of tension and in reviewing - like on the occasion of the most recent visit - justice reforms.

The security sectors includes both international and national security, that is to say military, police, judicial and penal systems. Georgia scored well known and broadly appreciated successes in police reforms. Still, the security system in the whole suffers.
Internationally, due to the unsolved conflicts with the breakaway regions and because of tensions with Russia.
Domestically, due to the law rate of independence of the judicial power and to the shortcomings in the penitentiary system. In general, human rights violations are a matter of concern.

Hammarberg's four day visit is connected to the planned criminal code reform and the information gathered will flow into a report, to be released this summer.

Sukhumi and Tskhinvali host Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who hasn't paid a visit to them since 2008.

And while Russia sends the echelon of its diplomatic corps to the two Republics it recognized, USA is sending Tina Kaidanow, Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs to Baku, where - again - a belligerent rhetoric seems to gain ground.
And - again - there are reports of ceasefire violations. According to the Azerbaijani Defence Ministry there were some exchanges of fire in two different locations, on the 22nd.

During Easter, people wish each other peace. It's not exactly what echoes in Lavrov's words: "We don't rule out military provocations from Georgia, because anything can be expected from the current regime in Tbilisi; so we will spare no efforts to reliably protect the South Ossetian border and to be ready if someone will again wish to commit the crime of August, 2008".

Sorry!

2011-04-19T15:28:00.000+02:00

Too busy this week ;-)

Week 04-10 April: C/O Oppositions

2011-04-10T15:42:00.001+02:00

A key concept of democracy is real competition and alternation to power.
The political trend in Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan goes in the opposite direction, with a shift of power within the majority or majority factions… or no shift at all.
Oppositions, especially historical ones, that hardly ever accessed the power in the last 20 (up to 90) years, are marginalized, often either unknown either unpopular.

This is particularly true in Azerbaijan, where continuity of power makes its political system look like a monarchy legitimized by periodical elections.
In March historical oppositions – Musavat and Popular Front – held a common meeting in Nardaran, a place characterized by strong Islamic/patriarchal traditions. At the end of the month in the district of Fountan square protesters confronted police, a scene due to be repeated two days later, on the so called Day of Anger. Results: massive arrests, oppositions’ worsened relations with Ministry of Internal Affairs and with presidential administration.
Baku Mayor didn’t allow a further meeting (Islamic Party) for the 8th, and on the 16th tensions may newly raise on the occasion of another planned action.
According to the Minister of Internal Affairs the majority of the population fully supports the President and his Government. Still, due to the extreme polarizing of positions, worrying episodes are occurring in different layers of the civil society. In Djalilabad a teenager – son of an opposition activist – killed another one, perpetrator of the harassment he had been the victim of.

In Armenia the press suffers from the amendments of the law on “Defamation and Insult”, while political landscape becomes more and more complex. Opposition is fragmented, composed by various parties, including ex majority party Armenian Revolutionary Federation, which had/has/will have strained relations with the Armenian National Congress. The latter twinned its 17 March event with a new demonstration, on Friday, basically a week after Heritage’s leader Raffi Hovanisian ended his hunger strike. Notwithstanding the support Heritage ensured to Levon Ter-Petrosyan before last presidential elections, now the two parties have very different positions.

In Georgia opposition keeps its tradition to have very strict ties with the international community. Sometimes an external observer may sense that Georgian opposition invests more on its popularity abroad than at home.
On the 7th eight “allied” parties met NATO Secretary General’s Special Representative for the Caucasus and Central Asia, James Appathurai. While it makes sense, of course, to have their voice heard and their positions legitimized by international interlocutors, it should be kept in mind that the international community is not almighty. And, for sure, none of its members - powerful as it might be - enjoys the right to vote in Georgia.

Week 28th March-03rd April: Sovereignty and Paradoxes

2011-04-03T17:28:00.002+02:00

According to the Georgian Law on Occupied Territories, 23 Oct. 2008, article 2, Russia is occupying:
a) Territory of the Autonomous Republic of Abkhazia;
b) Tskhinvali region (territory of the former Autonomous Republic of South Ossetia);
c) Waters in the Black Sea: territorial inland waters and sea waters of Georgia, their floor and resources, located in the aquatic territory of the Black Sea, along the state border with the Russian Federation, to the South of the Psou river, up to the administrative border at the estuary of the Engury River, to which the sovereign right of Georgia is extended; also the sea zones: the neighboring zone, the special economic zone and the continental trail where, in compliance with the legislation of Georgia and international law, namely the UN Convention on Maritime Law (1982), Georgia has fiscal, sanitary, emigration and customs rights in the neighboring zone and the sovereign right and jurisdiction in the special economic zone and the continental trail;
d) The air space over the territories stipulated in Paragraphs (a), (b) and (c) of this Clause.

Now there’s a new statistics about who’s living in point a. Sukhumi released the 2011 preliminary census, assessing a total population of 214 000 inhabitants, 64 478 of whom live in the Capital (plus 12 000 in its rural area), 39 342 in Gagra, 37 143 in Gudauta, 30 437 in Gali, 25 235 in Ochamchire, 18 146 in Gulripshi, 16 000 in Tkvarcheli (= tot. 242 781?).

Who are these 242 781/214 000 citizens? Abkhazians or Georgians under occupation? For the International community, save Russia-Nauru-Venezuela-Nicaragua, they are citizens of Abkhazia, may they be Russian passport holders. With an exception: the village of Aibga. If the Law on Occupation states in clear letters where are the borders between Georgia and the Russian Federation. On the contrary the borders between Abkhazia and Russia are a matter of dispute for the village of Aibga. A mixed commission Sukhumi-Moscow held its second meeting in Moscow to clarify the issue of sovereignty over an area of 169Kmq. A non-State with problems of territorial integrity? It sounds a bit a paradox.

But it’s not a unique case. Nagorno-Karabakh as well – which is universally unrecognized, save by some unrecognized/partially recognized States – has not only territorial claims but also a weird inner gerarchy in what it believes to be its territory. The recent OSCE mission entitled its report “Report of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs' Field Assessment Mission to the Occupied Territories of Azerbaijan surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh” . Fair enough, Zangilan, Gubadii, Lachin, Kelbajar, Agdam, Fizuli, Jabrail were not part of the Autonomous Region of NK.

Now, the point is that the whole territory which now falls under the "sovereignty" of Stepanakert, is going to be connected via direct flight to Yerevan… which officially never recognized its existence. As for Georgia in point d. of the Law on Occupation, Azerbaijan protests the violation of its air space, assumed to cover NK, as long a sit doesn’t recognize it.

The first passenger of the first flight, scheduled for May, should be the Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan who coming from NK, in absence of recognition, may be considered an Azerbaijani born citizen, as his predecessor Robert Kocharyan.

Sovereignty, non recognition and paradoxes!

Week 21-27 March: Wisdom or Mourning

2011-03-27T14:57:00.006+02:00

“I entered Liberty Square as a proud citizen to fulfill my political, civil, and constitutional rights […]” So Raffi Hovannissian, the charismatic, pragmatic, experienced chairman of Heritage Party (HP) explained why he had started a hunger strike in Liberty Square, in Yerevan.
What happened: on the 13th March, in the midst of the international storm, when already voices were whispering about the “Mubarakization” of Armenia, the HP, parliamentary firm but not radical opposition, convened a plenary session. The resolution adopted enlist an ambitious plan of State building to end oligarcs’ crystallizing power over society that is creeping in both socio-economic and political spheres and that may eventually lead to a point of polarization where only a sharp break is foreseeable. A brave act of wisdom versus tardy crocodile mourning?
(Full text of the HP resolution/13 March, www.heritage.am/pr/140311.htm).

After the adoption of the resolution, Raffi Hovannisian started his hunger strike. At his tenth day of “civil fasting” or “political fasting” he received the visits of Hovik Abrahamyan, speaker of the National Assembly, the vice speaker Samvel Balasanyan, the head of the Republican faction Galust Sahakyan and others MPs.
Years ago I had a long and in depth exchange with Raffi Hovannisian about democracy and Armenian needs and priorities. I was positively impressed by his intellectual honesty, realism and uncompromising civil firm belief. Plus his political skills which are, by the way, broadly recognized: it should be recalled that recently Grigory Karazin has paid him a visit, and it doesn’t happen so frequently to see the Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs sitting with opposition leaders in a friendly country.
He’s definitely a resource for Armenia, and hopefully a fruitful one.

On the other side of the forever-closed border it’s again time for mourning a soldier. On the 23rd the deputy head of the press service of Azerbaijani Defense Ministry reported about a new cease fire violation which caused the death of Samir Agayev, born 1986, deployed near the village of Ashagi Abdulrahmanli, Fizuli region. There is indeed the need to replace the contact line between the two forces with a no-weapon zone. Otherwise there might be no way to prevent an escalation.

The Co-Chairs of the Minsk group released the “Executive Summary of the "Report of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs' Field Assessment Mission to the Occupied Territories of Azerbaijan surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh", urging a much necessary improvement of the situation on the ground (full text, www.osce.org/mg/76209).
Again, wisdom vs mourning?

Week 14-20 March: What’s new?

2011-03-21T15:15:00.002+01:00

Once upon the time there were three Empires. One was ruled by the Ottoman Sultan, one by the Russian Czar, one by the Persian Shah. The three Empires had been regional powers for centuries, and they fought each other over the supremacy in the South Caucasus. Parallel powers with parallel problems of poor modernization and socio-political crystallization which eventually turned them from predators into preys.
At the beginning of the XX century they made their last effort of modernization through reforms, becoming constitutional monarchies: the Sultanate in 1908 reintroduce the Constitution, the then Petersburg court in 1905 adopted its first one, while the Peacock’s throne in 1906. In the 20ies and 30ies they carried out harsh processes of modernization, secularization, industrialization to catch up with those external actors that had threatened them seriously – in terms of statehood and sovereignty – during and after the First World War. Thus, again parallel but deeply divided, the backbone of Eurasia searched its new identity and world’s role as Republics.

At the beginning of the XXI century the three States heirs of the Empires found themselves in the backlash of some of the processes they had started during the XX century. Significantly, forced secularization was put at question, with different degrees.

As they still move on, their path may be a bit less parallel than before. Indeed, there seems to be room for cooperation, or tangential routes. Russia and Turkey may have buried the war axe, and –still pragmatically and cautiously – to have assessed each other as possibly reliable partners.

A big Turkish delegation headed by Prime Minister Erdoğan accompanied by seven members of the Government and 200 businessmen visited Moscow last week. Russia will build the first Turkish nuclear power plant, and discussions were held concerning South Stream and Samsun-Ceyan oil pipeline. For Ankara, Eurasia may be le plan B from 2013.

And for the South Caucasus? If the gear moves, the cogs must find a proper place, in order not to crash/not to make the rotating wheels crash.

This concerns Georgia, set between Black Sea Russia and Black Sea Turkey, with two of its Autonomous Republics -Ajara in the South and breakaway Abkhazia in the North- highly economically dependant of Turkey or Russia. Well, Abkhazia much more than just that…
While Baku welcomes the cooperation, Yerevan protested the gift presented during the meeting at the Kremlin: a copy of the Moscow Treaty that definitely harmed Armenian interests.

Armenian interests are a matter of dispute. In the midst of a new wave of political crisis/revolutions, Levon Ter Petrosyan brought again Yerevanits in the streets. Is he still a leader? He had his chance, used it and exhausted it. But he still looks visionary enough to be a leader, probably due to the lack of a new one, as well.
Do Armenians need a new leader? The square appeared ready for something more than Ter Petrosyan can give.

Still, a square never hosts an entire country.
So, no matter how many persons protest, they will never fully represent the whole people’s will and many Armenians may feel much more at ease with continuity than with change.

One wonders if the Government feels at ease, as well.

Week 7-13 March: A question of time

2011-03-14T16:55:00.003+01:00

An old dictum suggests that something works when the right person is in the right place at the right time.
It seems to be time again for revolutions (color/flower/colorless/flowerless), the place is the Arab Muslim world, and the persons, peoples. Or some of them. Perhaps, few of them, compared to the total population. But still, this new wave of anti-authoritarianism gave hope to some activists and observers that time has come to change what they feel needs to be changed in Azerbaijan as well.

It sounds very unlikely that a (color) revolution will take place in Azerbaijan. Albeit the Umma vibrates with some of the notes coming from North Africa, none of the Turkish Muslim countries seems deeply affected by what’s going on, apart from human sympathy. Azerbaijan in particular is already where the crowd prevented Egypt from going: in Azerbaijan the Republic has already been transformed into a kind of electoral monarchy. Not the right time, probably, for a rebellious contamination. Had this all happened in 2002, with a sick Heydar Aliev and a not yet popular Ilham waiting for succession, there would have been room for spreading the infection. Time expired for that.

The first victim of revolutions, coups, uprising is always rule of law. This makes all these phenomena, whenever, wherever, whoever, at least the very second best. Not to mention the human dramas they all imply. Every case is specific, and generalizations are really out of place. Still, rule of law is so difficult to be established, so important, that it is definitely one of the main pillar for any society to function properly. Once – or regularly – broken, societies become very unstable. A successful turn down of regime through the square may lead to the mis-perception that the square is indeed a proper place for political confrontation. And used again and again. Kyrgyzstan is trying to avoid this process. In Georgia, on the contrary, radical opposition is claiming revolution to be unavoidable.

Are the Azerbaijan government or the Georgian one really threatened by the young activists of the Great People’s day or by Nino Burjanadze and Levan Gachechiladze?
No. They are not.

Still, there’s something going on. Guys somewhere get shot, arms are spreading.
The international crisis hasn’t eased its grip, economic distribution is not working.
Powers crystallised, the ruling classes are turning into a reservoir, unable to react properly and to perform efficiently their mandates. Internal struggles mine their stability (in the end, where does Nino Burjanadze come from?)

So the light of the full moon that could shine in the darkness of the east (and not just South Caucasus) may not be the smiling faces of pro-democracy supporters holding roses in their hands, but “the third eye of Shiva the destroyer”.

It’ high time to be cautious, and still fast and reasonable.

Week 28 Feb.- 06 Mar.: To each his own

2011-03-07T15:36:00.002+01:00

On the 4th the XV Session of the Geneva International Discussions (GD) took place, on the 5th President Medvedev dedicated the whole day to two guests who are not guesting each other… President Sargsyan and President Aliev.

In Geneva, Giedrius Čekuolis is the newly arrived co-Chair, representing OSCE now that Lithuania took over OSCE chairmanship from Kazakhstan. GD location and format are stable from more than two years, which can already be assessed as a success. The date for the next session is June, 7.
While in Geneva conflict solution (working group 1) and humanitarian issues (working group 2) are addressed, the grassroots problems, trans-administrative lines incidents find their proper fora in the IPRMs, the Incidents Prevention ans Response Mechanisms. Now that both IPRMs – in Gali and Ergneti – work, with the Ergneti one having resumed its activities after a long pause of more than one year, the GD can focus fully on the political aspects, just reviewing periodically the situation on the ground.

This division of work between GD and its own creatures, IPRMs, is well mirrored in the lines of the official press communiqué issued last Friday by the GD Co-Chairmanship:
“In Working Group I, the participants reviewed the security situation on the ground, which remains relatively calm. They continued their discussions on the key issues of non-use of force and international security arrangements and on best practices and cooperation, in particular in the field of confidence-building.

In Working Group II, participants reviewed the issues related to the humanitarian situation, including the supply of water and gas, the facilitation of returns and other durable solutions, and property-related issues. Participants also took part in an information session dedicated to the “end of displacement”. "

This is exactly what is missing on the NK front line: a properly working IPRM. This is felt, needed, even evoked, somehow, in the joined statement of the three Presidents after their meeting in Sochi:

“After the discussions on the practical implementation of the trilateral Declaration adopted on October 27, 2010 in Astrakhan, in addition to the steps specified in the above mentioned Declaration, the Presidents agreed to take the following confidence building measures:
1. To conclude in the shortest possible period of time the exchange of the prisoners of war,
2. To strive to solve all contentious issues through peaceful means and to conduct along the cease-fire line an investigation with the participation of the parties under the auspices of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs and with the assistance of the Special Representative of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office regarding probable incidents.” (http://president.am/events/news/eng/?id=1466)

A hot line plus quick reaction teams with a mixed staff with an investigative/facilitating mandate, able to cross the cease fire line, plus a regular IPRM, would relieve the tripartite meetings (the last was the eighth one) from dealing with day-to-day minor violations and would allow the meeting, held at presidential level, to concentrate on the political settlement of the conflict. It is itself an extremely tough task.

A clear message was delivered by Russia with the choice of the location of the meeting: Sochi. Plus, during the day, the party was involved in skiing, enjoying the Sochi tourist resort. So, it sounds clear and in bold letters that the huge investment over there mustn’t be shadowed by wars around…

Week 21-27 Feb.: The Trojan horse, déposè

2011-02-27T18:10:00.002+01:00

Again about wars and wars’ strategies… Can a prolonged conflict be annoying? And two? And Three?
Wars are tragic, dramatic and – when they are never ending – really too much. Actually they are too much from the very beginning.

So, after having gained all the possible attention on its warmonger approach to the conflict solution of the protracted Nagorno Karabakh conflict, Azerbaijan devoted the 26th Feb. to the commemoration of the Xocalı massacre.
The tragic event left on the memory of the Azerbaijani nation a flood of blood, and an opaque (beyond the official version) reconstruction of what happened. While the Armenian side from the very beginning denied responsibilities (http://www.un.org/documents/ga/docs/52/plenary/a52-85.htm), few voices in Azerbaijan claimed the need for further investigations and disclosed unspeakable hypothesis. One of them, Elmar Hüseynov, was killed in 2005. Another one, Eynulla Fatullayev, is still in prison (http://www.amnestyusa.org/bannedbooks/pdf/eynullafatullayez.pdf).

The present is in the midst of history and its narration, and the future in the choices to be made.
So, much ado about nothing or is really Azerbaijan on the warpath? The very last words of the Minister of Foreign Affairs suggest that no, there is still room for negotiation.
Without needing to go back to sophisticated strategies such as the Trojan horse, for sure after so much war propaganda, in case of conflict Azerbaijan would have pulled on itself all the blame. And it is not desirable.
Negotiation should be carried out at presidential level. This sounds very promising, somehow. Still, according to the amendment of article 11 of the Azerbaijani Constitution any alteration of the State borders should be approved via referendum, and not via referendum or presidential decree, as it was stated before 2002. Harder and harder…

What about a Georgian Trojan horse?
The National Security Concept to be approved by Georgian lawmakers specifies that “Georgia realizes necessity of deepening and developing relations with brotherly people living in the North Caucasus,”
It is totally reasonable for a country to devote its efforts to have good relations with its immediate neighbours. At the same time a regional approach can be very tricky. Russia is facing tremendous costs in coping with North Caucasus. Just to give the update list of casualties among law enforcement agents and militants: 12. Feb. Ingushetia, 2; 15 Feb. Chechnya, 2; 19 Feb. Kabardino/Balkaria, 4; 22 Feb. Kabardino Balkaria, 3; 26 Feb. Chechnya, 3; 27 Feb. Chechnya, 3.

An overreaction to a Trojan horse, or an even slightly perceived one, is not totally unpredictable.

“Twenty Years After: 1991 in Retrospect”

2011-02-13T06:49:00.001+01:00

Dear readers,

this week and the following one the blog won't be updated as I am in India for the International Seminar on “Twenty Years After: 1991 in Retrospect”, MAKAIAS, Kolkata, February 15- 17, 2011.

(and, of course, on a short holiday...)

Week 31 Jan. – 06 Feb.: Every morning is already the future

2011-02-06T21:43:00.002+01:00

On the 2nd of February Elmar Məmmədyarov, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan, was interviewed by RT. Questioned about the Nagorno Karabakh issue, the Minister expressed the need to increase the region's prevedibility.
Two casualties in three days, in January, on the contact line should remind that the expression “frozen conflict” doesn’t mean that there’s no any process in flux. Nothing can hibernate a human community, that is to say, frozen means – at the very best – a creeping movement.

The Minister mentioned four UN resolutions, EUPA’, PACE’, OSCE’s ones … all international organizations expressed their support for Azerbaijan, because of the principle of territorial integrity. The point is that no one of the three parties involved – Azerbaijan, Armenia, de facto Nagorno-Karabakh – is addressing one of the main issues: how to face the necessary sacrifice to find an exit strategy to the impasse.

Military specialists in Azerbaijan will analyse every now and then the feasibility of military re-conquest, not mentioning the little detail of how to cope with the day after. A military victory wouldn't for sure help to win the hearts of Karabakhis, who from almost twenty years rule the country, having created a separate State and developed their own identity.

The original sin, for all the three ruling classes, was to allow nationalism (or ultra-nationalism) to become one with patriotism. Due to this mystification of what means loving the homeland, the public opinions are now used to the radical positions and whoever might try – as an act of patriotism – to negotiate a reasonable, thou painful, solution, would be taken for a traitor.
If such a condition was critical ten years ago, it’s worse now, when entire new generations are growing up without any memory of peaceful co-habitation. A future of mutual exclusion has already begun.

An unwelcome future has already begun in Georgia as well. At the end of January Georgian authorities lamented and condemned the deployment of short-range ballistic missiles, Tochka-U (SS-21 Scarab B) and other offensive weapons in breakaway South Ossetia, accusing Russia to be preparing an attack. Be as it might be in Russia’s Government’s mind, for sure South Ossetia with a depressed economy, rotten infrastructures, poor resources and a total population comparable to an average small town is most probably on its way to become a little more than a military site, needed to control the situation in South Caucasus but perhaps even more in the North.

The urgency of prevedibility is felt much more in North Caucasus, where the death’s list must be updated almost every day.

Week 24-30 Jan.: Куда?

2011-01-31T17:19:00.002+01:00

When on 21st August 1991 the Georgian President Zviad Gamsakhurdia assessed the coup as a plot of Gorbachev himself to boost his own popularity before the Soviet presidential elections, he was most probably too blinded by his hate towards the Union and his Presidency to have a clear picture of what was going on.
Twenty years later Mikhail Saakashvili’s remark about Domodedovo’s terrorist attack sounds as out of place as his predecessor’s one. Hopefully it’s hate again to have made him comment that the attack is “payback" for the Russian Federation's policies in the North Caucasus, and not a rooted belief that terrorism is proper mean of political dispute.

The confrontational approach was not very fruitful for Gamsakhurdia and it’s not predictable where it is leading Saakashvili to.

Talking about directions and the proper way to reach a destination, if it’s clear where it is, it’s interesting to have an overview about infrastructure projects. Russia deployed three brigades, including 800 specialists, to rehabilitate the railway sections from the river Psou to Sokhumi, and a section between the towns of Tkvarcheli and Ochamchire. So, work in progress on the Abkhazia railways on the Russian border.

Railways projects were the main topic of the meeting between Ziya Mamedov, Minister of Transports and Ramaza Nikolaishvili, Minister of Infrastructures and Regional Development, in Tbilisi, on Tuesday. The very focus was The Baku-Tbilisi-Kars project, the railway supposed to be finished by 2012, if not before, and to carry up to 17 million tons of goods per year, at its full strength. The project foresees a totally new section of 105 kilometres, 76 of which in Turkey and 29 in Georgia. Moreover the Akhalkalaki-Marabda-Tbilisi will be rehabilitated. Akhalkalaki will be the main crossing point, and its strategic importance will rise.

The corridor’s costs have risen and Azerbaijan has pledged to do its part. At present the four kilometers tunnel to join Georgia and Turkey is under construction and the issue of customs and crossing simplification under discussion.

Armenia, cut out of the main regional projects, faces increased cost of import of goods from Turkey and China, via Armenian or Georgian shipping companies. Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan instructed the Minister of Transport and Communications Manuk Vardanyan to send requests to Georgian authorities to clarify the issue although some sources suggest that lack of transparency in the implementation of Armenian customs regulation may play its part.
According to Armenia now because of the high customs duties and shadow payments, the prices of imported goods rise constantly. In 2010, Armenian exports totaled about $1 billion and imports to Armenia about $3.7 billion, which is the worst rate among former Soviet countries.

So, confrontation and isolation lead Куда?

Week 17-23 Jan.: Look back (in anger)

2011-01-23T11:33:00.001+01:00

In 1979 David Bowie’s song Look Back in Anger was pretty famous.
The action of looking back – mostly in anger – marked the week.

In Azerbaijan on the 20th was mourned the anniversary of Black Saturday, when twenty one years ago the Soviet Army entered Baku. The intervention resulted in almost two hundred casualties, it made Heydar Aliev leave the Communist Party as an official act of protest. The tragedy is remembered as the cornerstone of the independence of the country.

All along the year many similar celebrations can be expected, as the twentieth anniversary of the collapse of the Soviet Union is in 2011.
Indeed, Lithuania opened the floor, on the 13th. Commemorating the anniversary David Bakradze, Chairman of the Parliament of Georgia, stated "The collapse of the Soviet Union and the present independence of Lithuania and Georgia was determined by the heroism of the deceased during those struggles”. In Azerbaijan the victims of 20th Jan. 1990 were declared shahid, the honorific term used for those who have laid down their life fulfilling a religious commandment, or fighting defending their country or protecting their family.

There was a sad celebration for Armenia, as well. Four years have passed since Hrant Dink was killed, on the 19th of January. It’s a painful recurrence that affects both Armenia and Turkey, especially since justice hasn’t been done yet. A dark shadow that further divides the two countries, which – quite the opposite – would find extremely beneficial to open a public (and even common) debate on the suffers ultra-nationalistic groups may bestow over their civil societies.

Georgia would have been forced to look back in anger to 2008 war, had its delegation taken part to the works of the Monitoring Committee of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, where the consequences of war were discussed. According to MP Davit Darchiashvili, a member of the Georgian delegation in PACE and chairman of European integration committee in the Georgian Parliament, the Georgian side was skeptical because the main focus was the humanitarian aspect. The political aspect is deemed as a precondition to any negotiation for Tbilisi. Perhaps a reluctant pragmatism could help to alleviate the suffering of people affected by the war and to overcome substantial problems of interoperability which may have far-reaching implications, especially in ri-affirming a partial Georgian sovereignty over the breakaway regions. The “wall against wall” strategy so far implied just an assertive Abkhazian and South Ossetian sovereignty.

To quote David Bowie’s Look back in Anger, “Waiting so long, Waiting so long, I've been waiting so, waiting so”...

Week 27 Dec.- 2 Jan.: The centres (and beyond)

2011-01-02T21:53:00.003+01:00

The literature about South Caucasus is full with analysis of the centre-periphery relations, regional development gaps and so on.
Perhaps a new chapter should be written, entitled: the Georgian case.

Georgia is moving part of its power in its regions. It’s somehow a weird process, started few years ago, when the Constitutional Court was placed in Adjara. Now it’s going to be the Parliament’s turn. Kutaisi, the second city of Georgia, will be the temple of Georgian Legislative power.

Kutaisi is the main city of Western Georgia. It was the capital city of the Western region of the zarist governatorate (1864-1917) and of the Region of Kutaisi in Soviet time (1951-1953). According to President Saakashvili, 2011 will be Kutaisi’s year. The opening of the Parliament there will help to re-qualify the city, which will be targeted by some other works and investments.
Вack to 2009, the city became the focus of interest of the "Fresh Electric Company", an Egyptian company that, after the signature of a memorandum of cooperation, turned the area of the previous KAZ, Kutaisi Car Industry, into a free industrial zone. The project implied at its first stage an investment of $ 2.000.000.000 and, as typical of many similar ones in the post Soviet space, replaced heavy industry production with light one (furniture, textile), and was supposed to give occupation up to 15 000 workers. The then Minister of Economic Development Lasha Zhvania described the company’s plans as “unprecedented investments for Georgia”.

Remaining seized on the matter of the consequences of localization of powers, which to many observers looks like an alienation from the center of power, it has to be seen if it’s really going to be a good chance for western Georgia to develop its own way to growth, politically and economically.

At Georgia’s east, Azerbaijan keeps its door wide open towards its neighbour. SOCAR is keeping high level of investments in Georgia in 2011, up to $50-60 million, as already foreseen in the agreed investment projects for which permits were obtained. There is still place for improvement, adding some extras available to a maximum sum of $100 million, save additional investments in the implementation of gas transport project AGRI, which will have a separate funding. The core of investment plans is the gasification program in Georgia.

In the Azerbaijani centre a new Ambassador is –eventually- waited: Matthew Bryza, appointed by the White House bypassing the Senate, where the Armenian lobby had ostracized his candidacy due to his allegedly doubtful impartiality over the NK issue. As Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs he had gained knowledge and experience about South Caucasus, in conflict solution and in energy policy. About the later topic, it should be recalled that from July 1998 to March 2001, as the deputy to the Special Advisor to the President and Secretary of State on Caspian Basin Energy Diplomacy, he coordinated the U.S. Government’s inter-agency effort to develop a network of oil and gas pipelines in the Caspian region.

In Armenia, in Yerevan the Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan chaired a sitting with the newly appointed Ministers of Economy and Finance, Hrayr Tovmasyan and Vache Gabrielyan. The Government approved the draft law on free economic zones and the amendments to 6 other laws to be in line with the implementation of the budget recently approved. This is the first time that a separate bill is adopted on free economic zones. It is all part of a package to improve the business environment in Armenia, according to the guidelines of the “Doing Business in Armenia” memorandum of understanding.

In the southernmost Marz of the country, Syunik, a new wave of demonstrations to halt uranium mining might start. Local residents believe that their health and the environment should be prioritized to mining profits.

The year has just begun, priorities are on the way to be defined, in the centres and beyond.

Week 20-26 Dec.: End of the decade…step on the gas!

2010-12-26T16:27:00.002+01:00

The last decade saw the growing importance of gas, its export and costs.

Approximately ten years ago the Shah Deniz gas field was discovered. Its reserves (estimations waving from 50 billion cubic meters to twice as much at the early stage of data collecting) were considered relevant to reduce the dependence from Russian and Iranian ones.

Actually, Azerbaijan is pondering delivering up to 1 million cubic meters of gas per year to Iran, if proper infrastructures are available. Part of it would supply the Azeri exclave of Nakhchivan, to meet a demand of approximately 350-500 million cubic meters; the rest would be sold to Iran to supply its Northern regions. Azerbaijan is interested in the exchange gas-for-electricity with Teheran.

Azerbaijani gas (coupling with oil) has a strategic importance for Georgia. Just to recall an episode, back to 2007 the extraction problems in Shah Deniz forced Georgia to buy extra supplies from Russia.
It’s not by chance that SOCAR was awarded in the 2010 Foreign Company nominations in Georgia, where it operates through the subsidiary company SOCAR Energy Georgia and owns the Black Sea Tanker Terminal at the port of Kulevi. The terminal was started in 2000, but started to operate in 2008, after years of financial troubles and among environmental concerns.

And talking about gas related concerns, in late summer it was announced by Andrej Kruglov, deputy chairman of Gazprom, that the tariff of gas in Armenia should rise to 330$-350$ per thousand cubic meters in 2011, doubling its price compared to the previous year.

From the Armenian-Russian gas network springs the new Mayor of the Capital. Karen Karapetyan, who headed all along the decade the Armenian-Russian joint venture ArmRosGazprom, has been the chosen person of the ruling party to replace after a scandal the city’s Mayor Gagik Beglaryan.

The gas business built its own ramifications in the years 2000-2010, not just in the shape of pipelines.

Week 13-20 Dec.: €conomy/IT & Stormy weather

2010-12-19T15:34:00.002+01:00

In November Synopsys, Armenia’s leading software company, was prised by the USA Embassy “for its promotion of U.S. and foreign investment by showcasing Armenia as a potential IT hub, its collaboration with universities on IT training programs […].” Armenia, a landlocked country with limited sources of economic wealth, especially mineral, land, business enterprise (capital, equipment, strong internal market), but a good potential of human resource, could have sound ambitions concerning IT development.

Oscar Wilde once said that “Ambition is the last refuge of failure.” Perhaps. But for the Caucasus as a whole, IT is a huge support and expedient to exit from more than a problem. Georgian government seems to sense it at least to some extent. On the 15th the Georgian Parliament passed with its third and final reading a law on IT Zones in Georgia. The start-up project to turn Georgia into a IT hub is dated back to June, and now, from 1st January 2011, companies operating in Georgia on computer software production, development, design and support, will be exempted from export tax and their profit from exporting services outside Georgia will not be taxed. Exemption will be applied as well to value added tax on exported products and services.

Virtual zones, floating in less virtuous ones? Again, perhaps.
It may be stated that economic transition is taking even more time than political one. For many citizens of South Caucasus the level of life of the Soviet time cannot be regarded as antiquities of the last century, but as a good term of confrontation to their style of life still now. Sometimes even as a standard yet to be re-achieved.

Old problems to be tackled with both old and new solutions.
So, while some places go on with their well rooted economic vocation, some other could adventure through innovative paths.

The first group seems to include Adjara, or Azerbaijan. The former is more and more influenced by the expanding bubble of Turkish economy, being a part of Caucasus which had always a strong connection with Istanbul, however it was called in the past. Turkish Ughersan company is interested a free economic zone in Adjara where the Government has been negotiating with investors on the creation of a free economic zone in Khelvachauri region. Under the agreement, the zone will be constructed in two years.

Azerbaijan keeps its role – first and foremost – of oil exporter, although more and more consistently with the “new world”. According to Today.az: “SOCAR and China’s Zhen Rong Company have conducted negotiations on bilateral cooperation and signed a memorandum of agreement on export of Azerbaijani oil to China […]. Besides, SOCARs delegation and Thailand’s PTT Company met during the visit to Thailand. […] the sides have signed memorandum on joint utilization of floating oil tank belonging to PTT, near Singapore. This project will increase the productivity of Azerbaijani oil export.”

The second group may collect not only those who cannot rely on a long term and well established connection with a neighbour country with growing economy or on natural resources, but all those that are interested in a new gateways.

And, back to IT, it’s worthy to remember that a gateway in computing means: “hardware and software that connect incompatible networks, allowing information to be passed from one to another”.

Nothing else more needed in the South Caucasus.

Week 6-12 Dec.: €conomy (&Middle East)

2010-12-12T14:45:00.001+01:00

South Caucasus is the link between EuroAsia and Middle East. A very convenient position, although somehow problematic. While Georgia and Armenia claim to be Europeans (sometimes Europeans “abroad”, or neglected, or forgotten, or returnees) Azerbaijan can assert to be meeting point of Europe, Asia and the Middle East. A trump card, if well played.

Who seems to play well is Iran that in autumn did not save energies to reassure old partners and reinvigorate its strategies for new ones. In October Defence Minister Ahmad Vahidi visited Baku to discuss bilateral military cooperation. The speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani, expressed his commendation in Yerevan, for the good mutual relations. In November it was Georgia’s turn: direct flights Tbilisi-Tehran&visa-free travel arrangements agreement signed in Tbilisi by the two Ministers of Foreign Affairs.

The Middle East has potentials, in terms of economy.
In 2011 Syria will start importing natural gas from Azerbaijan. According to the agreement signed in November in Baku, Syria will import about 3.5 million cubic meters of gas a day, via Turkey. The pipeline - still under construction – will be a part of the network connecting Syria with Turkey, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Iran, Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan and Europe.
Meanwhile Azerbaijani oil exported via ports in Batumi and Ceyan reached its seasonal picks. According to Today.az “On Dec.6-10, the average price on Azeri Light CIF Augusta exported […] was about $92.8 per barrel, or $3 higher than the previous price.”

Armenia may be interested in diversify its investors, not to be too dependant on Russia. In the past Lebanese investments were nearly equal to Russian ones. But according to the statistics for the first semester of 2010, Russian investments make about 70 percent of all foreign investments made in the country. As Russia seems to firmly hold the market of infrastructures, other options may be open to investors who don’t want to challenge the big tycoon.
Armenians confirm their preference for Dubai, for the winter holidays. To meet the travellers’ growing demand, Dubai’s first low cost airline, flydubai, will couple the service offered by Armavia.

The Emirates, Egypt and Jordan will be again the favourite locations for South Caucasian holidaymakers. And money goes on flowing between the Middle East and its northern bridge.

Week 29 Nov. – 5 Dec.: Un-Diplomatic week

2010-12-06T15:38:00.002+01:00

It doesn’t really matter…
This seems to be the key message from the South Caucasus diplomatic week, in the days of wikileaks&OSCE Astana summit.

If it’s not an earthquake so far, the wikileaks cables still do matter.
So far nothing really unthinkable came to the surface for the South Caucasus, and the worst part for diplomacy is to see made public reports meant to be secret. Diplomacy itself seems to have lost part of its sacral mystery and to have been degraded more or less to the level of the quality analysis of a decent newspaper, if not to gossips. Nevertheless, in the event that more conspicuous unpredictable pleasantness pops up from the cables, many interested parties are claiming that it’s hard to believe what’s written in them.
“[…] the text looks more like a fable and creates the impression that it is a provocative, which aims to damage relations[…]” thus a Baku official dismisses the info of a negotiation between the Azerbaijan Defense Ministry and the USA Ambassador.

Still, the same interested parties seem to be much more flexible in considering the contents as credible, whenever they can be used at their own purpose. So, no doubts on Armenian side for the liability of the info of the cable of February 25, 2010, when Ambassador Jeffery writes about his talk about the Armenian Protocols ratification with the Turkish Foreign Ministry Undersecretary:
“He warned Congressional passage of an Armenian genocide resolution would ‘complicate’ his government's domestic political calculations regarding ratification. He said if something acceptable to Azerbaijani President Aliyev can found, then ‘we can move’ the protocols forward.”

Believable or not, exploitable or dangerous, the 1167 cables from the USA Embassy in Tbilisi, 1735 from Yerevan, 1569 from Baku, do matter.

The week saw also the first relevant OSCE summit in the last decade.
Not big expectations crowned by not big results, for the three South Caucasus countries. Notwithstanding the commitment of the Kazak Presidency in maximizing this year at the head of OSCE, the only relevant step onwards is the resuming of the IPRM in South Ossezia, which still is a Geneva Discussions’ success, mostly. Basically the Astana Summit gave the floor to everybody to re-confirm what’s been repeated from ages: territorial integrity AND self determination, for Armenia no future for Karabakh in Azerbaijan, for Azerbaijan an unconstructive Armenia approach which may lead to war. Well predictable also the words spoken for the conflict in Georgia.

The Astana summit was not for sure in charge of solving the conflicts, but at least it could have been a good chance to let few unpredictable words drop out of the sub-texts of the bilateral meetings, if any unpredictable word was indeed said… (and before it’s published by wikileaks…).
If not, it can be assumed that the EU Council President Herman Van Rompuy pronounced the following words in vain:

“We still face unresolved, protracted conflicts in the OSCE area. These conflicts remain a threat to our stability and security. In fact, by the very use of words like "unresolved" or "protracted", we risk putting these conflicts into a special "category", beyond hope as it were. We cannot allow that!”
(Full text available at www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/ec/118111.pdf)

Another lost chance for a constructive meeting? It does matter.

2010 week 21-28 Nov.: Wars’ presents

2010-11-28T16:37:00.003+01:00

Two years passed since last post. A lot of things changed, few issues were solved … among them not the stalemates of Nagorno Karabakh, South Ossetia, Abkhazia conflicts.
The legacy of the 90ies is obstinately there, as if the time stands still, notwithstanding new wars, efforts, recognitions, reaffirmations of territorial integrity... in the minds and in the words of the warmongers of each society, or in those of citizens so used to bellicose propaganda to be unable to distinguish between treason and reason, between wishful thinking and feasible solutions. It’s a show that repeats itself, apparently endlessly, but never fully the same. Unsolved conflicts are not really frozen. Somehow they deteriorate and, around them, the societies they affect.

Wars have two presents, as the word present itself has two meanings.
One has a time connotation. Wars in the Caucasus were present in 2008 and are present in 2010. Frozen, un-frozen, (toxically re-frozen?), all the same unsatisfactory in their outputs. It’s hard to believe that a bright future is opening to Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia and Abkhazia as their perception of independence increases with time. Although more investments may flow in, their closed frontiers will always put them at odd with a stable system of international relations. Not to mention the total lack of (or highly partial) international recognition.
Barriers everywhere, that - in a world of huge and widening markets -, make the area look like an underdeveloping enclosed suburbia. And instead of a new “Cold war”, some observers may already sense these small scale conflicts as the peripheral disputes of “sinking ships”. For sure, the future will not bloom among tiny antagonistic communities, if anyone had such a hope, or claim.

The second meaning of present is gift.
A gift can be expected, desired, surprising or useless, unrequested, disappointing. Wars’ gifts have the special characteristic to be profoundly harmful if not lethal.
One gift is mutual mistrust. Notwithstanding the efforts of the international community to preserve or activate processes of confidence building between war affected communities and their rulers, suspiciousness by the parts is felt as compulsory, up to the point when it delegitimizes any declaration heard. When President Saakashvili on the 23rd November at the EU Parliament pronounced the following words:

The Georgian government already considers itself bound by the August 12th ceasefire agreement and has always understood that this ceasefire clearly prohibits the use of force. But-in order to prove that Georgia is definitively committed to a peaceful resolution of its conflict with the Russian Federation-we take today the unilateral initiative to declare that Georgia will never use force to restore its territorial integrity and sovereignty, that it will only resort to peaceful means in its quest for de-occupation and reunification. Even if the Russian Federation refuses to withdraw its occupation forces, even if its proxy militias multiply their human rights violations, Georgia will only retain the right to self-defense in the case of new attacks and invasion of the 80% of the Georgian territory that remains under control of the Georgian government. I will address the relevant letters to the Secretary General of the United Nations, the Secretary General of the OSCE, and the leadership of the European Union, stating clearly that we commit ourselves not to use force in order to reunite our illegally divided country, neither against the occupation forces, nor against their proxies, even though the UN Charter could allow us to do so. My pledge here, in front of you, constitutes a unilateral declaration of a state under international law. (full speech www.president.gov.ge/index.php?lang_id=ENG&sec_id=228&info_id=5857)

the reactions were “cautious”, so to speak:
[…] we cannot ignore the fact that Georgian leaders have often treacherously gone back on their words before. We all remember, for example, Saakashvili’s “peace-loving” televised address on August 7th, 2008, just hours before the start of the barbaric night shelling of Tskhinval.
So that any “solemn promises” of the Georgian leadership can be taken seriously only after they, as the saying goes, are put on paper and will gain legal force. (full statement www.mid.ru/brp_4.nsf/e78a48070f128a7b43256999005bcbb3/ad8d6067ec4f3e08c32577e5005ea7bb?OpenDocument).

Mistrust shared both by losers and winners, which makes any peaceful resolution tougher to be reached.
And for those who think that that’s the only price to pay for a victory, it would be worthy to mention another war’s present, which is nowadays troubling lives and consciences in Armenia: the number of non-combat deaths in Karabakh, where the physical and mental conditions of conscripts became - after alarming and deadly episodes - a matter of concern … and where the dyscrasia between Yerevan official position towards NK and the presence of Armenian conscripts on the ground pops up, irrepressibly.

January, the 19th : Hrant Dink

2009-01-19T09:57:00.002+01:00

Silence.

Silence is what we all need to be able to hear, in the noise of stupid TV programs, what we need to know to make the whole picture clear.

Probably that’s what a good and gifted journalist can do, to make his voice raise in the noise, and simply shape in few words his need of truth and share it with those who are not yet completely puzzled or annihilated by TV and shouts…

That’s what Hrant Dink did, and that’s what made him so dangerous.

To his memory, on the second anniversary of his murder.

Dear Readers,

2008-09-22T11:23:00.002+02:00

As I am leaving for Georgia (civilian monitor EUMM), I'm not sure that I will keep the blog updated.
Marilisa

Week 8 – 14 September: Georgia, the show must go on … or not?

2008-09-14T14:50:00.003+02:00

On the 8th Shalva Natelashvili, the leader of the opposition Labor Party suggested, as a way to overcome the crisis in Georgia, that present leadership should resign. It is one of the breaches of the national unity that followed the August’s events.

Back the 12th from her tour in Europe and USA, Nino Buržanadze called for a probe about what happened. In straight contrast with the present national rhetoric, during a press conference she stressed that “[…] we have not won. We have been defeated severely in all directions.” Nino Buržanadze, one of the most popular politicians in the country, is a former supporter of President Saakashvili. She took distance from the Georgian leadership just before Parliamentary elections.
Actually, in the last year, Saakashili lost many comrades to the opposition, like former Foreign Minister Salome Zurabishvili, now of the Georgia’s way party, and former Defense Minister Irakli Okruashvili, arrested in September 2007 after having launched his own party, Movement for United Georgia, and who eventually fled to France. A French appeals court has rejected a request by Georgia to extradite him on the 10th .

President Saakashvili, during his speech in Gori, declared “I want to state with full responsibility: I am personally responsible and I assume full personal responsibility for each and every event […]. I also assume full personal responsibility for rebuilding and establishing peace in Georgia”, words that clearly suggest that he is not considering the chance to leave his position.

Week 1- 7 September: To shake hands

2008-09-07T20:58:00.002+02:00

A week marked by Cheney’s visit in countries described as the most endangered. But not only: a lot of shaking hands, between the Turkish President and the Armenian one, between the members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization…

The most remarkable protagonist of the polics of shaking as many hands as possible is President Saakashvili. His position seems right now dependent on the support he can get from USA, and on the local propaganda. Together with a new definition of self determination and territorial sovereignty, also the concept of starting a war may face some change, if it’s true what Matthew Bryza said, that the war didn’t start “with the attack on Tskhinvali by Georgia, which we do believe was a mistake; but it began much sooner, thanks to provocations by South Ossetian militias, under the command, by the way, of Russian officers”. Is it such a support to last long? Does the polics of shaking hands pay back? For sure, Russians’ criticisms do, and they are helping the present Georgian President to keep his place.

But an inquiry on what happened seems unavoidable, opposition is not satisfied with the proposed Anti – Crisis Group and not fully with the so called “Charter of Politicians and political Parties”, and, not last, Nino Burjanadze is touring the United States…

Presidents of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan, members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization met. As the members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, they expressed support to Russia, but didn’t recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia. After Russia, just Nicaragua recognized the new two South Caucasian States, till now.

The worst position towards this matter is the Armenian one, squeezed between the needs to be in good relation with both Russia and Georgia, to welcome the principle of self determination for Nagorno Karabakh and still not to recognize any other State before it, right now that it’s trying to improve the relations with Turkey, as President Gül’s visit proves.

Finally, it’s six weeks to Azerbaijan Presidential election, and eight to Ajara’s Supreme Court one. Both events seem to be overshadowed now by what happened during this dramatic summer, and both are going to be effected by it, a lot.

Week 25 – 31 August: Unfrozen conflicts

2008-08-31T17:43:00.002+02:00

For more than 15 years people in Caucasus got used to the concept of frozen conflicts of South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh. Some expected the conflicts to be settled, one day, some just lived as if they were to be kept frozen forever. None of these two options became reality: the military solution led to an “unfrozen situation” … with temperature close to a cold war…

From March on, after the recognition of Kosovo in February, tension was indeed escalating. On the 13th the Russian Duma recommended the Government to strengthen the ties with the two breakaway regions, and on the 15th Saakashvili reiterated his refusal to sign the treaty about non use of force stating that “We are told to sign a new agreement on the non-use of our armed forces – Georgia is a peaceful country and we have many times said that we want to settle all the conflicts only peacefully - but with whom should we sign this agreement?”.

Now the answer seems to be clearer: with the two new existing states of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. They may not enjoy the recognition of so many states as Kosova, but it’s pretty sure that there is no way to step back to older positions. South Ossetia and Abkhazia are lost.

The two new ethno-states, may be a very unfriendly environment for minorities, especially the Georgian one, and it’s highly improbable that the return of the new and old waves of refugees will be easy and in short term. This is another side effect of the misinterpretation of the principle of self determination, which is leading not only to the disregard of the territorial integrity of countries, but also to the de facto violation of the rights of minorities.

A political solution may have led to a progressive reintegration of IDPs, the military one just high picked mutual animosity. And this is one of the long term effects of this war. But, talking about short term effects, Saakashvili managed, till now, to survive the impact of his mistake. For the second time in few months he proved to be unable to handle situations of protracted high tension, and to prefer to resort to – hopefully – successful use of force. In November, against the opposition, in August, against South Ossetia. In both cases, although partially discredited, he got away with it. At least till now, but for sure he seems to be a much less reliable counterpart, than few weeks ago. Let alone the fact that the Russian Government wouldn’t like to consider him a counterpart at all.

The massive change occurred in the last 3 weeks will effect Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well. The first will have to face the suggested “united position” at the session of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) [Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan] on September the 5th, and support the Russian intervention. This may lead to another tense situation on its border, and, as Onnik Krikorian pointed out “Over 90 percent of [Armenia’s] trade goes through Georgia, and although Russia is considered its most strategic ally, military operations targetting civilian infrastructure — especially the railway bridge outside of Kaspi — adversely affected imports and exports." (http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/08/28/georgia-armenias-predicament/)

Azerbaijan got the message: Russian grip on the Caucasus is meant to be long lasting, and a frozen conflict is much more convenient than an unfrozen one…This must be kept for sure in regard with incoming elections and gas policies. Incidentally, the decision of official Baku to transport Azerbaijani gas to Europe via Russia will be adopted by results of talks with Gazprom and Turkey Enegry Ministry, as stated the 29th.

Russia position is firm and unshaken. Some voiced that the rest of the world will isolate it, ostracize it, or whatever. But it’s not true: as Putin suggested, the West is not the entire world, and, talking about world policy, no one should underestimate anymore the importance of China, which is standing by the Russian Federation. And, moreover, the West is not just Poland, the Baltic States, or even the United States... Who really thinks convenient to turn an Euroasiatic power into and Asiatic one, and find itself isolated, and cold, not metaphorically?

A mistake, at the beginning of August, which will be deterministically followed by many necessary others.

Dear Readers,

2008-04-26T21:20:00.003+02:00

For some weeks I won't be able to update regularly my blog.

Marilisa

Week 14-20 April: Separatism or Social issues

2008-04-21T12:37:00.003+02:00

In defining their own identities, people may rely on their job/level of life or on their cultural belonging. The first, at social level, is the economic cleavage, the second the national one. In Soviet time, because of the Marxist theory of the clash of classes, the first was the most stressed. In the era of the clash of civilizations, national issues are the most sensible ones. And thus, they can be used as tools of political pressures, if not of blackmail.

Georgian government, a month to the elections, is under the cleaver of Russian moves in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The RF government has taken the first steps for a recognition de facto of the two republics, although not yet of a political one. Putin’s instructions are that: “List of documents issued by Abkhaz and South Ossetian state agencies to individuals that are recognized by the state agencies of the Russian Federation is defined. Legal personality of legal entities, registered under the legislation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which is considered as lex personalis of such legal entities, is recognized as well. Federal bodies of the executive authorities are instructed to carry out cooperation with Abkhazia and South Ossetia in frames of legal assistance in the filed of civil, family and criminal laws. In case of necessity, the Russian Foreign Ministry’s local representations in Krasnodar district and in the Republic of North Ossetia–Alania will perform consular functions to provide assistance to persons permanently living in Abkhazia and South Ossetia[…] It is also envisaged to develop additional proposals on concrete directions of further interaction with Abkhazia and South Ossetia in favor of the social-economic development of these republics, protection of rights of the population living there, including the Russian citizens”.

For such a step, Russian government is blaming the Saakashvili administration, “which neglects the capabilities of the existing mechanisms for establishing normal economic relations, solving social problems…”, recently addressed by the Resolution of the UN Security Council (April 15). Moscow is discrediting the present administrations in its ability to protect State’s territorial integrity, in having good relation with its neighbour, in peacefully negotiating. Its aim is to show that Russia has nothing again Georgia in itself (visa restriction to Georgian citizens has being lifted, decisions for a further normalization taken).

Karabakh is not mentioned in this effort to “promote … the stability in Caucasus”, as Lavrov said. But Razim Agaev, an Azeri political analyst, suggests that Russian support to separatism may spread to Karabakh. For sure, whoever plans a colour revolution in Azerbaijan, catching the chance of next presidential elections, must face the probability to loose the Karabakh. Or, at least, to be challenged on it.

In Armenia, the new administration will carry the same politics as the previous one, about the Karabakh issue. Another Karabakhi entered the cabinet, the Minister of Defense. But it is not the national cleavage that the new President wants to pursue. Quite the opposite, after the unpleasant and almost fratricide confrontation between Karabakhis and Armenians in the days of post-election demonstrations, the message about all the matter is just continuity and stability. The main focus of the Government is not the promotion of a micro-ethnicity (like Kosovarism, as a different Albanian identity), but social issues, the only ones that, if dealt successfully, can provide legitimacy and consensus to the four parties coalition government and the President.

Week 7 – 13 April: Armenia, moulding the future

2008-04-14T11:33:00.002+02:00

Since the 9th Armenia has officially a new President. The inauguration of Sergh Sargsyan, in the frozen centre of the city, kept far from the general public, marks the end of the long election period in the country, started far before the official electoral campaign, with the militant return in the political arena of Levon Ter Petrosyan, and continued in a stormy way after the day of the vote, 19th February.

Rallies, the eruption of police early morning the 1st of march, clashes, state of emergency, deaths and arrests… were all these events just transient, now that the President is in his place, managed to attach to his government a previously opposition party and enjoys – numerically - the support of almost all the Parliament? Something for sure changed, in not forever, at least for a while. The political crisis is not resolved, with people still kept under arrest and a new law on assembly that – for sure – does not meet international standards. Society is still quite polarized, albeit the radical opposition is probably reduced to a small (but rather motivated) group, and, what’s worse, it is cut outside the legal political confrontation. One of the first enemies of a State-mechanism is the creation of extra-parliamentary fractions. Either they are dismantled with force, and this seems to be the strategy adopted, either their issues and representatives enter the legal State framework.

In the third part of his inauguration speech, Sargsyan stated that he “will fully implement the program”, to turn Armenia in a country (of) “mutual respect, love, tolerance […] dignity […] strong, proud, democratic […] peace, stable development”. So ambitious an aim that he added “Alone, no one can turn Armenia into a country of dreams”. So he summed all part of the society, with two captatio benevolentiae targeted to the Church and the intelligentsija, to “overcome polarization, rough confrontation, and discredit”.

Just a couple of sentences, in the fourth part of the speech, for the “painful events” and the following "wounds". No words to the memory of the deceased... quite surprising, for someone who relies so strictly on the army, not even for those who died performing their duties (at least two, the number of dead is nine, now). And some rather alarming statements: “Unchecked freedom can result in conflict […] the State may interfere with the exercise of certain fundamental rights.” These words are extrapolated from their context, but deserve to be underlined in their un-ambiguous meaning. The turn of the screw could be not so ephemeral.

On the other hand, the first step taken, the choice of the Prime Minister, economically more than politically led, may display a pretty technical approach to the management of the State, a factor that could provide a good context to engage a confrontation, not on principles but on needs, with the opposition in the Parliament and outside it.

Week 31 March – 6 April: A cold spring

2008-04-06T17:16:00.003+02:00

NATO&democratization, or just democratization… a cold spring in South Caucasus.

Saakashvili, however triumphantly, came back to Tbilisi from Bucharest without having been able to put his own signature on the MAP agreement. Decision postponed to December, allegedly, with, right now, only an unprecedented declaration about “welcome of Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro Atlantic aspirations”. If it’s just a matter of time, it will take eight months more to realize the so called “geo-political revolution”, as Saakashvili describes it. If not, the strength of not NATO members – Russia in particular - on its politics should be reconsidered. Meanwhile, apparently, fairness and freedom of elections in Georgia are supposed to be two of the requisites to be considered for its accession. Putin contested the relevance of NATO in democratization processes, quoting the case of Ukraine and Estonia.
About elections, the new system of single mandate constituencies is already favouring parties rather than coalitions, as a single party faces less difficulty in expressing a candidature. The Republican Party presented 10 candidates of its list. Time for submission will expire the 21st, and the eight opposition parties have to negotiate on 75 names, plus the proportional list.

Ilham Aliyev joined the Summit in Bucharest as well. Azeri army is in Iraq, and a member of ISAF. But the relations of the country with NATO are on a different level than Georgia’s, and are not likely to change, as long as its links with Russia are so entangling.

Armenia has not relieved yet by the government’s turn of the screw. From many sides, local and international, it was invited not to turn stabilization into repression, to permit an independent investigation on the events of March 1st, to negotiate with the opposition. One option could be, for example, to create a Parliamentary Committee for what happened (art. 73 § 3 Constitution RoA: “If necessary and in conformity with the procedure stipulated in the Law on Rules of Procedure of the National Assembly ad hoc committees may be established for the preliminary review of special draft laws or for submission of conclusions and reports on special issues, events and facts to the National Assembly”). Since the government enjoys an overwhelming majority, and for the Committee to be representative also of the part of opposition which is not sitting in the National Assembly, NGOs or other organizations could be involved in the work of the Committee as amici curiae, a practice already well established in the international legal system.

Week 24-30 March: Fourth Estate

2008-03-30T13:12:00.000+02:00

If, when, how a fact should be reported happens to be a big issue.

In Georgia Patarkatsishvili’s “heirs” are disputing the destiny of Imedi TV. The control of one of the main independent media raises political interests. Although the opposition’s hunger strike, after the appeal of the Church, has finished, its present visibility may influence the electorate, and the election campaign is getting closer, with the parliamentary vote planned for the 21st of May. Moreover, in Saakashvili’s administration, image is a determinant factor, both internally and – may be even more – internationally, with the Bucharest summit at the doors. That’s why, Sukhumi insinuates, Tbilisi is pressing for new solutions in its conflicts, just to seem more acceptable to NATO potential partners. Its new proposals are unlimited autonomy, joint free economic zones, the vice presidency, representation in central authorities, the right of veto on decision affecting Abkhazia.

In Armenia, Gala TV is charged with a huge sum of money for alleged back taxes. 26,899,986 drams collected till now are not enough and the Inspectorate may expropriate the company’s real estate. As for the other information sources, the pro-government ones are underscoring the availability of the majority to dialogue with opposition. Levon Ter-Petrosyan is losing the battle to keep all opposition’s info media compactly on his side, with some reminding that if you push towards a full frontal confrontation, you cannot complain afterwards for harsh outcomes. And the responsibility for the tremendous suffers of the victims, arrested, shocked persons, of the further loss of credibility of Armenian political system, falls on whoever is acting moved by personal ambition and selfishness. Inside or outside the government.
It all draws quite a mean picture, that doesn’t give justice to the peaceful behavior of that part of the civil society protesting in clever and original ways in Northern Avenue, against the new law on restriction of freedom of assembly.

In Azerbaijan the unofficial presidential campaign goes on, with some media already demolishing any hypothesis for the opposition to find a credible challenger to Ilham Aliyev. After the hangover of the diplomatic success, waters calmed, and the President now accuses Armenia of provocations.

The manipulation of information is not only relevant for present events, but also for the interpretation of the past, in Caucasus and around it… In Turkey finally Youtube is back online after many days of blackout imposed on it for the images denigrating Atatürk, and Ukraine wants to be given by the Russian Federation the “Baturinskij Archive”, with Mazepa-related documents. Nation building has its rules.

Week 17-23 March: Confrontations&Programs

2008-03-24T22:22:00.000+01:00

In Armenia, after the lift of state of emergency, situation is supposed to be normalized. A coalition of government is taking shape, the new elected president made his first visit, to Moscow, not an official one yet, but a “business meeting” . Still, somehow, the capital city doesn’t seem pacified. For two days the downtown saw protesters mourning victims and asking for the detained to be released. The last point, if not led by an organized political force, is a mere petition. The oppositions gathered together the last days before the 1st of March is annihilated by arrests, with some exceptions, like Ter-Petrosyan, kept in his isolation, still focusing on election results, and the Heritage party, trying to voice against the new law on freedom of assembly and holding peaceful meetings. Such a fragmentation is not providing the chance to draw a united opposition program, to carry on a confrontation with a government that, clearly, is decided to move steadily on.

In Georgia, programs are quite clear. The Saakashvili administration played his cards to have the amendments on the Constitution – the 75 majoritarian seats – passed. Opposition is fiercely struggling against it, with a hunger strike of 42 persons, some inside the Parliament itself, in front of the Speaker’s office. Fight’s going on.
The President came back from his meeting with the American counterpart galvanized by the unconditioned USA support, felt so essential now that the goal of entering into the MAP could become a reality... And cause immediately the recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by Russia, a program not secret at all.

So was galvanized at the beginning of the week the Azeri public opinion, because of the new UN resolution about Karabakh. Proud suggestions were made to quit the Minsk Group, to change it, to leave some of its proposals unnoticed or consider them irrelevant. The cold shower arrived from Moscow, with a simple and dry statement about the Minsk Group, which is all right the way it is, and there’s no need to change it. So, future programs and confrontations still have a permanent frame to be discussed in.

Week 10/16 March: Virtual reality

2008-03-16T13:24:00.004+01:00

Facts&words. Sometimes words used to make reality look different.

In Armenia the lift of few points of the decree on state of emergency (political association and broadcasting of “some” news), virtually, softened the hardship of the post 1st March atmosphere. Serge Sargsyan opened a direct line through internet to communicate with his citizens, which is probably the first politically sophisticated move after many primitive ones, like the crude remark by President Kocharyan to the Civic Mediator, to remind him he’s working for Yerevan and not for Strasbourg.
In practice, everything seems to stand still. Less than one week to the expiring of the state of emergency and no political compromise in sight. Moreover, arrests are going on, and the official list counts already at least 96 detentions for tentative to overthrow the government and connected crimes.
It’s hard to guess how the society of Yerevan elaborated in the last two weeks what had happened. Under the condition of the impossibility to hold a public and open debate about the clashes, any kind of rumor was spread, from the number of deaths on, in a city where everybody found out to have a friend-of-a-friend who works in this-and-that-hospital and saw personally #-protesters-dying…As it is well known that people can be prevented from talking, but not from chatting, and all these doubts may increase the depth of the worse scare on the skin of the Armenian electorate. It could probably be partially cured with a clear and independent investigation, involving all the parts and international observers. Very unlikely, since, reading between the lines, the answer to any potential critic about the not-proportionate methods adopted to keep the situation under control will be “not a political will, but a lack of preparation”, thus more investments for security forces.

In Georgia the hunger strike of the eight opposition parties is continuing. Already six persons had to be hospitalized. Popular participation cannot be compared to what it was after the elections, it’s quite hard to keep a mass mobilized for long. So, claims from both the sides, but no decisive steps. The contested constitutional amendment about the 75 majoritarian seats passed, the margin of political action is restricted, if not for such demonstrative acts. Although well organized, is it a way out?
And talking about deadlocks, the verbal struggle that dominated the entire week is the one about the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The 13th the lower chamber of the State Duma held a hearing, not a public one, about controversial borders disputes within the CIS. The representatives of the Autonomous Republic of Abkhazia stressed the fact that it has many more requisites than Kosovo/a to be recognized, as, allegedly, it was artificially joined to Georgia under Stalin and it had already claimed its independence before Georgia was recognized as an independent State and entered the UN.
The result is not a binding resolution of the State Duma, but a recommendation to the Government to consider opening not embassies, but diplomatic representations in Abkhazia, South Ossezia and Transdnestria. Not an official recognition, but a sort of “Taiwan way”, which will enable to strengthen the economical and political linkage. And allow to keep playing the card of potential recognition against Georgia, if it keeps insisting on its NATO aspiration. And, back to words&deeds, after so many declarations of Tbilisi about the excellent prospects of membership, a cold shower came from Germany, first, than from France, Greece, Italy, Norway and Spain, unwilling to expand NATO Membership Action Plan.

Nagorno Karabakh (virtually Azerbaijan…), as well, states that it meets more requisites of statehood than Kosova: it doesn’t need peacekeepers to guard its own borders, its governance bodies are working, it holds regular elections and exercise fully sovereignty from more than 14 years. Azeris don’t miss the chance to underline that it is –indeed- exercising sovereignty, but till Yerevan.
But the only fact than marked a change in its position is a new UN Resolution, voted under the pressure of the Azeri delegation, which recognizes again the right to territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. It is worthy to be mentioned that the troika of the Minsk Group, US, France and Russia didn’t support the resolution, considering it a wrong step on the way to the normalization of the situation. Georgia and Moldova voted for the resolution, as territorial integrity is a very sensitive issue for them, too.
Finally, talking about normalization, is it normal for a journalist to be beaten in February and stabbed in March? Agil Khalil, correspondent of Azadliq, was assaulted in the same days when talks are kept to reform the electoral code, with the aim to hold free and fair elections.

Virtual, but not virtuous, realities.

Week 3-9 March: The costs of inefficiency

2008-03-09T18:34:00.003+01:00

An efficient management maximizes profits and minimizes costs. Vice versa an inefficient one reaches the opposite outputs. Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia had to face in few days their unsuccessfully unresolved problems, both internal and on their borders.

Armenia is still in the grip of a "deafening silence". The media blackout and the other repressive measures to keep the situation under control don’t seem to strengthen the position of the government, internationally less supported than ten days ago. Citizens and members of the diasporas are still expressing their opposition/doubts whether the way chosen to manage the crisis was the most efficient one, and concerns about what’s next. Internet is playing an unprecedented role, as a place of dissemination of information and of constructive confrontation. Remarkable: under such a strict state of emergency, many are not exercising self-censorship, which proves that a part of the civil society has admirable maturity and awareness. Chapeau.

On its borders, the “shuttle diplomacy” for the Karabakh issue, was replaced by the “shuttle accusations” over the breach of the ceasefire, the 5th, that cost lives to sixteen soldiers, according to Azeri sources. Azeris accuse “the Karabakh clan”, as the present Armenian political élite is often referred to, to rely on the fear of new dangers to gather more support and to try to distract from internal problems. Government in Yerevan says that Azerbaijan is taking advantage of the moment of weakness of Armenia. Breaches of ceasefire are not so much an exception, and a new one is reported on Saturday night. But so many losses are.

In Azerbaijan, turning to internal issues, a sentence is going to weight on the perception of freedom of speech. Ganimat Zahidov, the Chief Editor of Azadliq, a newspaper of the opposition, has being sentenced to four years for hooliganism and aggression, for an episode that many consider an (efficient?) trap. Allegedly on November the 7th he was approached by a woman who asserted that he insult her. A man intervened. The man, Vusal Hasanov, from the Popular Front, has personal animosity against Ganimat Zahidov. Witnesses assess that the editor just pulled back the assailant, and that he was the one to be struck.
Freedom of holding peaceful demonstrations will be discussed, as well, with the reform of the Electoral Code. A meeting with the Venice Commission should be held on the matter. Seven months to Presidential election, and both Armenia&Georgia are alarming examples.

Georgia is dealing with Russia’s decision to lift sanctions against Abkhazia. The sanctions were decided within the frame of CIS in 1996, and prevent all the member-States from selling weapons to Sukhumi. The Russian Federation invited all CIS to act accordingly, including Georgia. Saakashvili appealed to national solidarity, but his words received a cold welcome from the opposition. His position is also discredited by official statements form Moscow, assessing that he had being informed during his meeting with Putin in February about the Russian decision.

Also the Joint Control Commission (JCC) on South Ossezia is sailing in stormy waters, with Tblisi trying to change its composition to have it more balanced on its own position.
Till now, its negotiations are inefficient, not only with the others three members of the JCC (South Ossezia, North Ossezia and Russia), but also at local political level: the 9th opposition resorted again to street protests.
Gachechiladze declared that the struggle will be end only upon the achievement of opposition’s goals. The issues on which an agreement has not being reached so far are the numbers of deputies to be elected by majoritarian system, 50 now, 75 in the government’s proposal, political detentions, rules to hold free and fair elections. Whoever will win the majority of seats in the next Parliament, will potentially be able to impeach the President (art. 63 of Georgian Constitution). And the opposition has never recognized the legitimacy of President Saakashvili.

Yerevan, bloody Sunday: 8 killed, state of emergency

2008-03-02T17:10:00.005+01:00

In Armenia the day of reckoning came. Anticipated by some politically- flavoured arrests of Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s supporters, the rally in Opera Square of the opposition has been dispersed with force. Under article 44 of the Armenian Constitution, the right of citizens to hold peaceful and unarmed meetings, rallies, demonstrations and processions can be restricted “only by law, if necessary for the protection of State and public security, public order, public health and morality, and the rights, freedoms, honor and reputation of others”. The totally peaceful rally, at the moment of the police intervention – early in the morning –, was not even threatening the traffic, let alone the State security. So, it doesn’t sound very wise to display such an abuse of power, unless such power is nothing but an “Empire with clay feet”, panicked by -fewer and fewer- demonstrators. Or by something else, like alleged coup d’etat, defections or whatsoever?

For sure, from then on, the situation only worsened, with increased polarization and radicalization.
New statements, from opposition forces, previously ready to move against the government on legal bases, like the Heritage party, marked a fiery condemnation: “In view of this tragedy, it would be meaningless to now speak about the establishment of a legitimate presidential institution in Armenia. It is beyond any doubt that such atrocious methods will bring forth huge problems […]”. Unfortunately these words, uttered the 1st, precisely foresaw new violence in the streets, that went far beyond the worse expectations. Eight killed and emergency state for 20 days declared by acting President Kocharyan, which deprives partly from the chance to have further detailed information from local sources.

Not so for Russian and Azeri media, which are trying to cover what’s going on (http://www.day.az/ in Russian, posts hourly news based on reports from News Ribbon, Газета.Ru, АрмИнфо, ARMENIAToday, Regnum, Strana.ru, Gazeta.ru, Эхо Москвы, PanArmenian.Net, Новости-Армения, Арка), while in Tbilisi some NGO organized a manifestation under the slogan “DO NOT SHOOT” in front of the Armenian Embassy to express support to Armenian people, to protest against violence, violation of human rights, and to appeal to the Eurocommission and OSCE not to leave Armenians alone.

From the international community, which, btw, had not in its whole officially congratulated the new President, the first appeal to reasonability came form OSCE. The Armenian Assembly of America, as well, expressed its concerns and then the Secretary of State. The international community was quite absent during the entire pre-electoral and post-electoral period. Demonstrators tried to have it more involved after the forced end of the rally, moving in front of the French and Italian embassies.
(Videos of the 1st March http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLKhhO63vj0, night clashes http://www.russiatoday.ru/news/news/21596/video in English)

Week 02/25 – 03/02, Georgia: (r)Evolution

2008-03-02T16:57:00.000+01:00

In Georgia, where starting from 1999 two on three of both Presidential and Parliamentary elections had to be extraordinary, because of massive street protests and clashes, the harsh political confrontation at present goes on in the proper place, i.e. the Parliament. Important issues, like the change of the electoral system, the re-distribution of powers, the management of public tv, relevant constitutional amendments, are discussed, although not always profitably, during regular sessions.
Reforms, right now, overcastted revolutionary appeals, and there’s a balance between the needs of radical changes and the stability necessary to pursue such changes. Is it the stillness before the storm? Parliamentary elections, scheduled for May, will provide the answer. The opposition is drawing the strategy to maximize the votes, running as an eight-parties bloc, after the defection of the Republican party, which will run alone.

If internal politics legally, but with difficulty, moves a step after another, on the borders the tension is rising much faster, after the accident that involved Malkhaz Basilaia, a Georgian journalist, at present held in custody in Sokhumi, and the following escalation of mutual accuses and, then, of shots. Media reported that a military mobilization is taking place in Abkhazia.

Week 18-24 February: Arm Wrestling and the Kosovo Syndrome

2008-02-24T19:05:00.006+01:00

An arm wrestling match can last from few seconds to pretty long. And the end is often unpredictable.

The match between the nine opposition parties and the ruling ones in Georgia is shifting from revolution to reforms. Seven weeks passed from the Presidential Elections, and appeals to hunger strikes and rallies leave place to a more moderate rhetoric. Gachechiladze said that he wants – as well - to present the opposition to foreign observers as a real alternative to the present Government, not just as a radical force, but as a responsible, serious and capable of dialogue one. At the same time, positions are kept firm on key demands: release of political prisoners; a new general director of Public TV; replacement of the chairman of the Central Election Commission.

The match between Levon Ter-Petrosyan and the ruling government is taking shape right now. The Presidential election of 19th sanctioned the victory of the front-runner Serž Sargsyan at the first round (53%) and left Ter-Petrosyan ranked second, with his contested 21%. Then rallies started, and the swing of the numbers of participants. It’s hard to say that in the last 10 years Ter-Petrosyan made the general public regret too much that he was no longer the President, and that a overwhelming majority of population is ready to follow him in his “struggle till the end”. Still something is moving, may be in the army, where Ter-Petrosyan claimed to have relevant support. Yesterday seven Generals and eight Colonels left the Organization Yerkrapah, expressing dislike about the political role played by the organization in the election.
Those who backed his run stand by him, but it’s hard to foresee, with international recognition of acceptably free and fair elections, if such a strategy can lead to a stroke, as he seems to expect.

Another big match, that concerns the Caucasus a lot, is the one between the concepts of Nation-State and the one of Ethnic-State that is emerging after the recognition of Kosovo’s independence.
In Abkhazia and South Ossetia there are early polls for Russian Presidential Elections, and the leaders of the two provinces, together with Transdniestria should meet soon to decide what’s going to be their next step to be recognized as fully flagged independent states, notwithstanding the official declarations of Tbilisi that Kosova will not be recognized by Georgia.

The 21st Saakashvili and Putin met, and apparently the first received guarantees that Russia will not recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia, thus preventing what can be described not only as the Kosovo precedent but as the Kosovo syndrome from spreading.
In the same days Ilham Aliyev was in Moscow, where he was proclaimed honorary Professor of the MGU, Moscow State University Lomonosov, for his activity in strengthening the relations between Russia and Azerbaijan. Still, the news of the official invitation to the Russian Duma of a delegation of the NK Government in March for the session about conflict-solution in the CIS space was not welcomed at all by the Azeri public opinion. Indeed, the syndrome is spreading, at least as a fear.

Week 11-17 February: Dark Shadows

2008-02-17T22:02:00.006+01:00

Some events of the week seem to cast long and dark shadows on the days to come.

The first and more important international issue that affected the South Caucasus, and Georgia in particular, is the self declaration of independence of Kosovo. Nation-states are based on the balance between an internally&internationally recognized territorial integrity and the protection of minorities, which should be given the tools to keep and exercise their autonomy. In case such tools are not sufficiently provided, or perceived so, the precedent of Kosovo, for the first time, may make the principle of self-determination be predominant over the one of territorial integrity.

The 15th the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Lavrov met the leaders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Sergey Bagapsh and Eduard Kokoity, to discuss the effects of the recognition in respect of the situation in the two provinces, which led to a new pick of tension between Tbilisi and Moscow. The opposition declared to be against the recognition of Kosovo.
Meanwhile, it’s carrying on its struggle, warning to start a hunger strike and to turn the city into a town of tents. Just one of their demands was fulfilled, and the persisting uncertainty is going on. Still, the rally of the 15th, with 30 000 demonstrators, cannot be compared with the massive participation deployed before.

Badri Patarkatsishivili's sudden death in London, although for a heart attack, cast another dark shadow on the Georgian government, “morally responsible” for his stress. Many mass media abroad, in Russia as well as in Azerbaijan, gave much relevance to the unexpected death of the contested opposition leader, sometimes openly pointing at Saakashvili as the probable plotter of his murder, linking this episode to the other “strange February death” of Zurab Zhvania, especially before the post-mortem made clear that he had died of natural coronary disease.

At the same time, in Azerbaijan Saakashvili is often quoted for his – and not only his – thesis that the Kosovo situation is a unicum, and that should be treated as such. Of course, the fear is that the new balance of the two principles may be applied to the Karabakh issue, as well, albeit at present all the lights are all on Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Armenia is focusing on the upcoming elections, with Ter-Petrosyan gaining the support of the Heritage, New Times parties, and some defectionists from Dashank. Still, the candidature of Sargsyan seems the strongest, and the supports to Ter-Petrosyan based much more on the need to be “against”, rather than on a fully and unconditionally “for”. During the week, the voices about his meeting with Dmitry Medvedev in Moscow made much ado, let’s see if about nothing…

Week 4-10 February: East, West, and what lies in between II

2008-02-10T23:12:00.000+01:00

In the days of the Munich Conference on Security Policy, of Putin’s memorandum at the State Council, and of Kosovo’s expected declaration of independence, an eye is kept wide open on the events of the USA Presidential campaign and the evolution of NATO enlargement.

Armenia: the American candidates are followed not only for their programs - internal and international politics - but also for sensible issues such as a solution for Nagorno-Karabakh and the international recognition of the Armenian Genocide, which is in both Barack Obama’s and Hillary Clinton’s agendas. Armenian Defence Minister Mikael Harutyunyan met with NATO delegation led by Jaroslaw Skonieczka. The delegation is in Armenia to assess the IPAP implementation, in view of the 26+1 Nato Session in April. At the same time, news are reported of a considerable cut of US economic aid to Armenia for next Financial Year (Georgia $52 ml, Armenia $24 ml, Azerbaijan $19,5 ml).
Azerbaijan: for Azeris in America, a new agency was established to ensure their successful participation to the vote, and for “Azerbaijani-American voters to speak with one vigorous voice, to be heard in Washington D.C…”. A good relevance was given to the declaration of the NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer that Russia’s position will not be taken into consideration while admitting Ukraine to the alliance.
Georgia: Mathew Bryza said that “The situation is not perfect in Georgia – far from it. And this [presidential] election was not an example or a model to be followed elsewhere in the world.” A Statement that, although does not support opposition’s claim of illegitimacy of the vote, still doesn’t sound as optimistic as before.

Some issues divide the international arena, and for sure it doesn’t seem to be much better at local level, in the post/ante election environments.

With the uncompromising attitude that marked their politics in the late Shevarnadze government, Gachechiladze and Gamkrelidze, together with all the parties of the opposition bloc, decided to suspend talks with the Government.
Salome Zurabishvili, former Foreign Minister of Georgia, now opposition leader and head of the "Georgia's Way" Party, allegedly the new Prime Minister in case of opposition’s victory in the January elections, made a visit in the US on February 6th, for a hearing at the Helsinki Commission.

Levon Ter-Petrosyan applied to Constitutional Court for the election to be postponed of two weeks, as the Article 90 of Election Code prescribes in case of violation of the right to campaign.
The 9th, early in the morning, the building of the Ministry of Justice was set on fire. “The usual suspects”?

Week 01/28-02/03: East, West, and what lies in between

2008-02-03T16:14:00.000+01:00

The Kosovo issue, oppositions, new Presidents: how to get away with foreign pressures and local strategies.

Azerbaijan: polemics about Russian language in the country, started a couple of weeks ago, then a decree signed by the President to open a branch of Lomonosov University in Baku… and Ali Kerimli, from Popular Front of Azerbaijan, denied his passport to go in the West to gather support for the opposition, thus Zerkalo newspaper suggests.
Georgia: Saakašvili proposes to open a Department of Russia - “our traditional and key partner” - within Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and a deputy foreign minister, Gia Vašadze, with a long soviet-foreign-policy curriculum.
Armenia: the candidature of Serž Sargsyan seems to be enforced and to receive the blessing of the Russian leading party, which signed an inter-party cooperation with Prosperous Armenia and Republican Party.

Balance and counter-balance of different interests that sometimes are used, and others are suffered, but never exhaust the complex relations of the various political forces in the three countries.

In Georgia, after the elections, there are two parallel lines, which tried to meet with a first round of talks on the 1st and, again, for the second round to come, the 5th of February.
On one side, the nine parties opposition plus Industry Will Save Georgia, New Rights and Party of Future, the 28th laid out a Memorandum with 17 proposals to:
a. Overcome not legitimate results of Presidential Elections;
b. Ensure political freedom;
c. Ensure freedom of speech;
d. Hold fair Parliament Elections.
If the proposals are not met in full, allegedly, permanent rallies will be held from 2.00 pm 15th of February.

Some of these demands - of course just points b, c and d - were addressed in speech and in action by the Saakašvili administration. A new General Prosecutor has being appointed, Eka Tkešelašvili, 31 year old, ex Minister of Justice, the first female GP of South Caucasus, who hastened to declare the repression of 7th November a big mistake never to be repeated again. In his speech at PACE Saakašvili himself talked about the need to reform TV boards and to make decisive steps towards further democratisation. On the other side, he claimed to have being voted for his commitment to NATO, for his fight against poverty, corruption and for his remarkable results in economy, in re-shaping the country and its legacy.

The new Cabinet was approved with 141 for and none against, but the opposition boycotted the vote and in the point 3 of the Memorandum calls for constitutional amendments requiring that the cabinet resigns after parliamentary elections. Do parallel lines meet somewhere, if they have to?

(Full text of the Memorandum: www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=17008;
Video of Saakašvili’s speech at PACE, in English: assembly.coe.int/ASP/NewsManager/EMB_NewsManagerView.asp?ID=3537&L=2)

Week 20-27 January: Elections, fair play and society

2008-01-27T20:58:00.000+01:00

Political communication is suffering from the flaws of the mass media society. An articulated analysis is often replaced by slogans, the mutual respect between challengers by aggressive statements. It all leads to a polarization that it is quite difficult to reconcile afterwards.

While in Azerbaijan some newspapers, quoting the Financial Times, already claim the re-election of Aliyev, 8 months before the election (an untimely election campaing?), in Georgia the new government has to take shape. And, clearly, it is no longer time to linger on accusations or open insults, but rumors suggest that all ministers who answer more directly for the level of life of the population are going to be removed: Giorgi Arveladze, the Economy Minister; Davit Tkeshelashvili, the Minister for Healthcare and Social Welfare; Kakha Bendukidze, the State Minister for Economic Reforms.

In Armenia candidates blame “the others” for the quality of political confrontation.
Levon Ter-Petrosyan calls for a mitigation of tension and creation of an atmosphere of tolerances, but, at the same time, goes on in defying the government a bandocratic system. Vazgen Manukyan declares to feel “uneasy about the vitriol and aggression that is presently spreading throughout our society not only by way of public rallies but also through the press and television.” and adds “This road will not lead to an improvement of the situation in Armenia”, words that do not prevent him from describing the ruling élite as “worthless people whose sole aim is to retain those positions”... et cetera et cetera.

Such a venom, the Armenian Observer points out, seems to be infecting the blogosphere, “whereby a range of extremely intolerant propaganda-blogs have sprang up, and have started attacking all and everyone around in the blogosphere - have taken the fun away from blogging. Instead of being the enjoyable personal hobby it once was, blogging now is increasingly becoming a risky business, a hostile environment, where you risk being attacked and harassed for your views.”

So, while the electoral platforms of some candidates promise to change completely the country in a lapse of time from 3 to 5 years, the web offers nice views of the same heroes in the shape of devils… Wasn’t the red-eyed picture of Tony Blair, during the election campaign, harshly criticized for not being in line with political fair play?

Probably Armenian society doesn’t need heroes nor devils… and since this is just a blog, and I have already mentioned the UK, let me put it with some brilliant English humour… (www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxfzm9dfqBw)

Week 14-20 January: 360˚ Negotiations

2008-01-20T19:15:00.000+01:00

Hard work for mediators, with negotiations going on about stability and future.

Starting with Georgia, today Saakašvili swore, pledging, in his first speech as President, to represent all the country and not just his supporters. At the same time the opposition - not allowed to manifest in the centre of the city - gathered at the hippodrome, and still denied his legittimacy. What’s the next step? To maximize the present visibility and try to obtain anticipated parliamentary elections, making the new Government fall? Or to prepare for the scheduled one in may? Oppositions leaders met with Matthew Bryza, the USA Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affaires, with Ilia II, Head of Orthodox Church and so on … negotiations…
Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, who attended for the Moscow government the oath, met with Saakašvili and with Ilia II. Markets of wine and water between the two countries have being announced to open again this year… negotiations on the way…

In Armenia, under the influence of Georgia’s events, the Speaker of the National Assembly Tigran Torossian made clear that “Presidential elections will not yield to parliamentary ones” (A1+, 16th Jan.).
BTW: it’s time for the broadcasting of political manifestos of the candidates, whose list was officially announced the 18th by the CEC: Arthur Baghdasaryan, Artašes Geghamyan, Tigran Karapetyan, Aram Harutyunyan, Vazgen Manukyan, Arman Melikyan, Serge Sargsyan, Levon Ter-Petrosyan. While the opposition is grouping around the last (negotiations…), a common point which can be spotted in the different programs is how to overcome political isolation and try to reach a solution for Karabakh.
Just in these days the Minsk group is touring the Caucasus, bouncing Baku-Yerevan-Baku.

The year 2008 is supposed to be the one of the ultimate settlement of the conflict, on fair and balanced basic principles. But, both basic principles and practical solutions are far from official proclamations and collective understanding in Baku… Araz Azimov, from the Ministry of Foreign Affair, stated that for the last three years he cannot match any significant change.
… so the space left empty by unjustified optimism should be filled with massive negotiations…

To Hrant Dink

2008-01-19T00:05:00.000+01:00

An extra Post, to commemorate someone who willy-nilly became a hero…

“We stayed in Turkey because that was what we wanted - and out of respect for the thousands of people here who supported me in my fight for democracy...”

On the anniversary of Hrant Dink’s death that’s the only thing I can offer to his memory ... the images of the thousands who claimed the pride to be Armenian, to be Hrant Dink, no matter who they are... to turn Turkey into the country he and they wanted to be citizens of.

(at the bottom of the page)...Some of the few pics I managed to take in the sad and moving day of his funeral and of the overwhelming procession ... together with the bitter words of Ilnur Cevik on the day before Hrant Dink’s Anniversary. (http://www.thenewanatolian.com/opinion-30788.html)

Week 7-13 January: “Georgia's traditions are more revolutionary”

2008-01-13T19:36:00.000+01:00

Thus the Armenian expert Alexander Iskandarian said, mentioning to the potential influence of Georgian Presidential Election on the incoming Armenian one (02/19). The same point of view is shared by the Azeri specialist Razim Agaev, very doubtful that any other South Caucasian republic would be able to raise such a popular participation.

Although results are official and internationally recognized, the opposition kept its supporters mobilized for the entire week, from the hunger strike to today’s peaceful rally, with over 100 000 people expected by the joined opposition parties. They claim results to be fraudulent. The CEC confirmed Saakašvili to be the winner, with 53.47% (1 060 042 votes), followed by Gachechiladze 25.69% (509 234). Results that do not match those given by other independent observers, such as the International Society for Fair Elections and Democracy (Saakašvili 50,8%, margin of error +/- 2,2%). Abroad, only Russia is supporting opposition’s claim, but it seems very isolated. Even the CIS observation mission recognised the elections to be in line with international standards. Russian observers, by the way, were not allowed in the CIS mission by Georgian authorities.
At present, an exposition of hundreds falsified protocols has been opened in Tbilisi, dedicated to the so called “Georgia-American lies, in honour of Matthew Bryza”, the American Congressman who is reported to have described elections as democratic (on Russian tv, http://www.1tv.ru/ 01/13 12:09).

The results of the plebiscites:
For North-Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) integration: 72.5%
For holding Parliamentary Elections in the Spring of 2008: 69.8%
Protesters are not, indeed, against the main line of the present President, his pro-Western attitude, but accuse him to be extremely authoritarian, close to dictatorship. To ease his position, Saakašvili opened the door of the new Government to opposition. Being Georgia, since the Rose Revolution, a semi-presidential republic, potentially the role played by the Government in leading the country is a key one, but till now the strictly presidential heritage prevailed.
Even if the mediation works, and opposition agrees to enter the Government, will this solve the problem of the extremely polarized political life, and enable the President to gain the confidence of Georgian citizens again?

It seems that November’s rallies, with over 600 wounded, had already entered in the collective memory as another epic moment in Georgia’s fight for freedom… or so are self – represented by those who had joined the protests … (www.youtube.com/watch?v=S7pR8rLZaqg&feature=related)

Week 1-6 January: Countdown is over!

2008-01-06T17:03:00.000+01:00

Finally Georgian Extraordinary Presidential Election’s day came.
Electors voted the new President, and for two referendum, if the want their country to join NATO and Parliamentary elections to be held in April instead of October.

The Georgian Constitution (Art. 74.2) states that “The referendum shall not be held with the view of adopting or repealing law, in terms of amnesty or pardon, ratification or denunciation of international treaties and agreements, as well as the issues restricting the basic constitutional rights and freedoms of individuals”. So the referendum has not any juridical value (btw: no treaty has being written till now, and it will be the Parliament to ratify it) and its purpose was just to remind people of what the incumbent President did to ensure the access in NATO, an issue which is viewed positively by 83% of population, according to recent surveys.

The Presidential Election legal framework (Art. 70 Constitution as amended after the Rose Revolution) states that:
“4. A candidate shall be deemed to be elected if he/she has obtained more than half of the votes of participants.
5. If no candidate has received the required number of votes in the first round, a second round of elections shall be held in two weeks after an official announcement of the first round results.
6. Two candidates having the best results in the first round shall be put to the vote in the second round. The candidate who received more votes shall be deemed to be elected.”

The preliminary results published by the Central Electoral Committee (6.00 pm) are:
Irina Sarishvili-Chanturia............................0.16%
43 years old, Imedi movement. First woman ever to run for presidency in Georgia
Georgij Маisаshvili .......................................0.77%
42 years old, Future Party
David Gамкrelidze........................................ 3.73%
43 years old, New Right Party
Shalvа Naтеlаshvili...................................... 6.22%
49 years old, Labor Party
Arkadij Pатаrkatzishvili .........................7.47%
52 years old, unofficially withdrew his candidature and is at present abroad. Owner of Imedi TV and involved in scandals and accused to be preparing a coup d’etat
Levan Gachеchiladze ..............................25.21%
44 years old, supported by a coalition of 9 opposition parties
Mikhail Saakasvili ...................................50.17%
41 years old, National Movement, ruling party, incumbent President.

At launch time today Gachechiladze claimed “Not counting votes in Tbilisi, Saakashvili has 44% and I have 34% of the vote. In Tbilisi, however, I have gained an overwhelming victory, which gives me an overall nationwide lead”, while David Gамкrelidze said during a press conference “I want to state that the result of the yesterday’s election is that there should be second round of polls […] I want to congratulate Mr. Levan Gachechiladze with success in the first round […] I want to call on Mikhail Saakashvili, if he really has a sense of responsibility towards the Georgian state, he should say no to artificial victory in the first round and agree on holding of second round. That would be a solution to the current situation.” (www.civil.ge)

The point is how “free and fair” were elections. The OSCE Interim Report assess that while elections were in essence consistent with most OSCE and Council of Europe commitments and standards for democratic elections, significant challenges were revealed which need to be addressed urgently (full report available www.osce.org/documents/odihr/2008/01/29182_en.pdf). Human Rights denounces serious violations (www.humanrights.ge/) and Russian medias, quoting the Minister of Foreign Affair, went so far as to declare “Media sources, non-governmental organizations and representatives of opposition are reporting about numerous cases of violation of the electoral laws by the authorities” and “Hasty remarks made by the U.S. congressman Hastings [coordinator of the OSCE short-term election observation mission] about “triumph of Georgian democracy” are superficial”.

The nine opposition parties bloc is threatening unrests from the 8th of January for the supposed manipulations of electoral results.
New preliminary results (7:30 pm): Saakashvili 48,55%
Early results (11.30 pm): Saakashvili 52,8%

Game over … or not?

Week 24-31/12: The new great game…

2007-12-31T19:19:00.000+01:00

…is not a game at all!
The recent tragic events in Pakistan are a general warning …

The media in Caucasus dedicated comparatively less attention to the murder of Benazir Bhutto than the western ones. Partly as a consequence of their local-focused strategy, partly –probably- led by the need not too stress too much an event which creates a long wave of instability.

In Azerbaijan, in particular, information assessed from the very beginning that responsibilities were to be cast on Al Qaeda, dropping any reference to any other hypothesis. The country, which has approximately 70% Shia Muslim and 30% Sunni, faced already in the past wahhabits infiltrations. Starting from 1998, the fax claiming responsibility for bombing of the USA Embassies in Nairobi and Dar-es-Salaam was sent from Baku. In Guantanamo is detained one Azeri citizen. A couple of azeri mosques (Abu Bakr and Cuma) are considered to be linked to Sunni or Shia terrorist groups, coming from bordering Dagestan and Iran.

Azeri government is active in facing the terrorist danger, but it is also playing the card of justifying its authoritarian rule as a tool to prevent a color revolution… but a green one!

In judging how much a religious revival is indeed dangerous, the role played by religious in society, how much the state should interfere and, even more, if it is allowed to limit citizens’ rights, it is mandatory to use caution, coherence and a good deal of tact&discretion.

Otherwise the risk is to support dictatorships in the name of a secular state that can happen to be as harsh and cruel as its opposite.
Or to make sheer democracy activists seem like nothing more than other countries’ agents.

Week 18-23 December: www? war, weapons and words

2007-12-23T21:08:00.000+01:00

In the night between 16th and 17th , from 01.00 to 4.15 am, Turkish aviation hit military targets of Kurdish guerillia in Zap, Ajasin, Khakurk. The operation was accomplished by 24 F-16, supported by heavy artillery. It is not the kind of episode which can be left unnoticed.

Already the 6th, Ilham Aliyev had declared that Azerbaijan stands by Turkey in its fight against PKK, which, by the way, the Azeri National Assembly added to the list of terrorist organizations. The statement of the President caused a reaction among Kurdish political activists, with the leader of the Kurdish Workers’ Party in France, Sejan Barzani, threatening Azerbaijan of terrorist attacks on its territory.
Azerbaijan has indeed quite a Kurdish minority, increased of over 23 000 members since the indipendence. But mostly, Azeri Kurds seem to be loyal to their citizenry identity. As for their national identity, although some communities vaguely claimed - in the 90ies - their will to create a Kurdish Republic, with their historical sites at present under Armenian occupation, they gave no further signs of secessionism or terrorism against the Azeri State.

In Armenia the Vice Speaker of the National Assembly Vahan Hovannisjan during the parliamentary hearings on "Armenian-Turkish relations: Issues and perspectives" referred to the relations between the two countries as a deadlock. He went so far as to describe Turkey as a classical example of dictatorship, since, in his words, it tries to control not only the present, but also the past (A1+, 12/19).

Georgian media are focusing on the north front… As election countdown goes on, the role of Russia in internal affairs is more and more disputed. The incumbent president tried to cool the voices about the involvement of Moskow in November demonstrations. But Nino Burdžanadze, the acting head of State, connects current protest actions with Russia (Imedi news, 12/20). In the meantime, Georgian military police has detained three Russian peacekeepers - named Volkovec, Duškalev and Krovostenko - from the contingent of the CIS Peacekeeping Forces stationed in the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict zone. Apparently, they are suspected in infringement of a 12 kilometer safety zone alongside the river Inguri (Rustavi 2, 12/23).
As for the “internal” front, both Saakašvili and Patarkacišvili have to appear , on the 22nd , in Tbilisi Court for a violation of the Election Code, that may have led to their exclusion from the registration list.

Week: 10-16 December: Democracy, one word, different meanings

2007-12-16T17:25:00.000+01:00

Countries watch each other, sometimes to protect the interests of fellow citizens there, sometimes as models of democracy.

Russia watched at the Western democracies at the beginning of the ’90, but a rich and well documented article from Kommersant gives a description of Russian democracy, as an adapted one, or even a “russified” one. (http://www.kommersant.ru/doc.aspx?DocsID=831355)

Azerbaijan follows the presidential campaign in Georgia, stressing the fact that, although rather unpopular in large stratus of society, Mikhail Saakašvili is the only candidate who visited the azeri minority (on the 11th he went to Marnueli, promising to the local inhabitants that more means of integration will be given).
And talking about azeri democracy, it is described as “decorative democracy”, not even that “controlled democracy” in which Western partners had hopes. The critics are raised in reference to the high number of political prisoners in the country, up to 72, and to the fact that OSCE, the organization mostly in charge of promoting democracy in the area, should be more demanding towards a CoE permanent member as Azerbaijan. By the way, the azeri delegation at PACE is supporting the Russian candidate to its presidency, and it doesn’t sound very encouraging to the azeri opposition.

In Armenia, another independent journalist, Levon Sardaryan, of H2, was fired. Public tv is dedicating 80% of its electoral coverage to the Prime Minister Sargsyan’s campaign (source: Yerevan Press Club). Is it a kind of “pre-electoral democracy”?
The main opposition candidate, Levon Ter-Petrosyan is often claimed to be supported by Turkish press, used as a mean of anti-propaganda against him.

And mentioning Turkey, what about its democracy? What does the Ak Partiyası mean to many not-Muslim voters, and what is its role in the process of democratization of the country? An intriguing article by Ilnur Cevik, on the English-language newspaper The New Anatolian, challenges many western (conflict-of-civilizations-led?) common senses… (www.thenewanatolian.com/opinion-30086.html)

Week 3 - 9 December: Elections and dissidents

2007-12-09T12:54:00.000+01:00

Hard times for the free press and opposition candidates in South Caucasus. As elections are approaching, there’s a turn of the screw in the policy towards dissidents.

In Azerbaijan it effects most the free press of the Nakhchivan region, where the “Nasibov case” is raising the concern not only of civil society but also of international organizations and foreign representatives. The Nasibov couple, both distinguishable journalists and activists in the sphere of human rights protections, are undergoing a period of persecution, with their pc, house, office confiscated. Il’gar Nasimov, correspondent for radio Freedom, is at present under detention.
Other journalists are facing the same problem. Just to mention some, the correspondent of the opposition newspaper Azedliq, Mohammed Rzaev has been summoned at the Ministry of Internal Affair; Elman Abbasov got his stuff withdrawn, and during a police search in his house it seems that the an officer placed a flesh card there, later assuming that it contains documents for which the journalist has to answer personally.

In Georgia Imedi TV, a not pro-government channel was allowed to go back on air. But practically it’s impossible, since, as its General Director Bidzina Baratashvili pointed out, equipment is very seriously damaged, all equipment for satellite connection and broadcasting is absent, the control room is demolished.
Meanwhile the list of candidates for the 5th of January Presidential election is taking shape. Right now 5 out of 13 candidates have been registered, but other six are waiting for the Election Commission, by 11th of December, to check their list of minimum 50 000 signatures to be allowed to compete. The present candidates are the incumbent President, Michail Saakashvili, Levan Gachechiladze (United Opposition), David Gamkrelidze (New Rights), Shalva Natelashvili (Labours), Georgij Maisashvili (Future Party), who was at first rejected and then admitted to run for presidency (for details www.newsgeorgia.ru/geo1/20071208/42113233).

Restrictions to candidature seems to be at work in Armenia, as well, where Raffi Hovanisyan saw his name deleted (once more) from the list of those who are running for presidency on the 19th of February. His Heritage party, which is playing an important role as an opposition party in the National Assembly, will not present another candidate and will support an opposition candidate. The opposition itself didn’t manage to express a unique leader, although most votes will probably be cast on the former president Levon Ter Petrosyan. A1+, the tv channel that was already closed in the past, is promoting his speeches as much as possible, but many fragments of the opposition parties (Orinats Yerkir, National-Democratic Union, the Communist Party) will not stand by him.

Finally, the long wave of Russian Duma elections reached the South Caucasus, and effected especially Georgia, where the Minister for Conflict Resolution David Bakradze expressed his annoyance for the fact that in Ossetia and Abkhazia Russian elections were held, and for the words of Boris Gryslov, who committed the Duma to decide over the annexation of the two regions in January (Rustavi 2 TV, 3rd December news).

Week 11/26 - 12/02: Elections Elections Elections!

2007-12-01T21:07:00.000+01:00

Elections, elections and again elections! The last month of the year starts with election specials on every media.

AzTV talks about the Parliamentary election in the Russian Federation, with an interview with Vasili Istratov, the Russian ambassador in Baku. The point is not just the output of the Russian political life, but the azeri medias stress also the supposed activity of Armenian diaspora to ensure its influence in the new Duma (01/12/07, Xaberler, evening edition).

On the other side, the whole Armenian press, with no exception, is concentrating on the local Presidential election. The would-be presidents are officially submitting their candidatures. 15 names are enlisted, some very liable to fetch a lot of votes, like the PM Sarkisyan, or the first President Levon Ter Petrosyan, whose candidature may be supported by many opposition candidates, as Raffi Hovanisyan (after their meeting on the 8th November, www.heritage.am/indexeng.htm).

Georgia, also, is preparing to the election day, at the beginning of the following year. Novosti -Gruzija reminds that the 5th of January people will be asked, as well, to express whether they want their country to join NATO or not (www.newsgeorgia.ru/geo1/), which sounds pretty much like a referendum on the geopolitical choice for their country.

Week 19 - 25 November: The BTK project and NK's dispute

2007-11-26T18:36:00.000+01:00

What is going on in the South Caucasus? From now on I will try to keep my blog updated with news coming form Azeri, Georgian, Armenian and others’ media, to check who is talking (or omitting to talk) about what…

The week just ended has matched an important event, to which Turkish, Georgian and Azeri media gave a lot or relevance: the new contract signed in Georgia for the railway Istanbul-Tbilisi-Kars, a new brick in building, as Ilham Aliyev mentioned in his speech, an integrated economical area (the speech was entirely broadcasted by the Aztv news, 19:30 edition. The meeting between the three Presidents was held in a pretty friendly way, on an outdoor stage).
The great absent is of course Armenia. In the same day of the meeting, which is again cutting the country off a new important Caucasian project, its media were focusing on Presidential electoral approaching campaign, especially on the new electoral code and on the candidature of Levon Ter Petrosyan. Another topic quite discussed was the new philosophy for territorial disputes, coming from the example of Kosovo: self determination as a stronger parameter than territorial integrity. Armenian Minister of Foreign Affairs mentioned it, talking about the role played by Armenia in the NK matter, and the sentence was not left unnoticed by Azeri media, which reported and contested his words (inter alia, http://www.zerkalo.az/, 21st November).

what belongs to whom...

2007-11-14T11:49:00.000+01:00

At the end of the first World War, territorial problems concerning the disappearing Ottoman Empire concerned the Mosul area, a longlasting integral part of the Empire. It was left outside the Turkish territory and retained under British control in its capacity as mandatory for Iraq because of its oil deposit (July 24, 1923, Treaty of Lausanne). The matter was discussed again and a new treaty was signed later by Turkey and GB, stating that the first would have surrended all rights to Mosul in return of 10% of the oil produced in the area (June, 1926).
This all shows the rooted Turkish interest in that old part of Ottoman territory, which in the very unstable situation of possible Kurdish indipendence opens the road to different hypothesis. The solution voted by the USA Congress the 27th of September foresees actually not a full indipendence but a Federal system, so the boundaries meant to belong to Iraq should not be negotiated again by the semi-autonomous new entities of the Iraq Federal Goverment. But although they are preserved as now, would be the Kurdish semi-Indipendent Region able to accomplish the same commissionment to fight PKK terrorists as the present Iraqi goverment?
Turkey waits and watches...keeping its troops on the border...

look who's talking to....

2007-10-21T17:48:00.000+02:00

Quite interesting: sometimes a leader talks at home to be heard abroad, sometimes talks or acts abroad to be heard at home...
Achmadinejad has always on his mind his problem of national consensus, and I suggest that his audience is always Iran youngsters, wherever he is, whatever he does... the opposite can be said about V. Putin, who forces the entire world to stop and listen what he states on Russian Tv, that is to say, "if you want to know what if... turn your head to Moskow..."

This is the first post

2007-10-20T11:13:00.000+02:00

Let me introduce myself and this blog.

I am a everlasting student (now enrolled in a PhD, but that's not the point...) about the Caucasus, and, in a wider sense, in the previous CCCP. I take advance of my linguistic abilities to try and understand more, to feel and to get in touch with the topics I have chosen to dedicate my time and my energies to.
Reading, studying, thinking, when not meditating, is never enough, and so, adviced by my beloved friend Miriam , I decided to become a blogger, to share with those who may be interested my reflections, and to be given new ideas, points of views, knowledge.
So I welcome you on my virtual sofa to have a nice talk, in any of the above mentioned languages, plus the one you would like to express yourself in. I always think there is a way to communicate, notwithstanding some practical obstacles...
WELCOME!