Week 5-11 March: Return to sub-normality

The upside-down world of South Caucasus goes on its way.
Especially during electoral periods.

In South Ossetia the main characters of November elections disappeared. In two week time elections will be held again, but without Alla Dzhoeva, who's been hospitalized after her head quarter was raided, and without her main contender, Mr. Bibilov who withdrew as well.
So the present aspirants, in the end of a troubled political campaign which basically lasted 6 months, are Ambassador to Russia Dmitry Medoyev, Ombudsman David Sanakoyev, former State Security Committee Chairman Leonid Tibilov, South Ossetian Communist Party leader Stanislav Kochiyev, Apparently the second enjoys more chances to be elected. Or, as it seems to be the case, to be the second best.
On the 25th it will became clear who's the new President. What's clear already now is how miserable the whole electoral process has been. And so are the "State" institutions, so blatantly used for political/clan needs.

It's rather a sub-normal electoral period of Abkhazia, also.
Early presidential elections, followed by Russian parliamentary elections, followed by Russian presidential elections, and, on Sunday, Abkhazian parliamentary elections. Due to the double citizenship, many residents in Abkhazia spent a considerable amount of time voting, in 2011-2012. Not surprising the voter turn-out is not so high, this time.
And there's going to be a second round, as not all candidate managed to collect the necessary 50% preferences and/or the voters' turn-out didn't meet the electoral provision. To the ballots again...

And back to sub-normality between Georgia&Russia / Azerbaijan&Armenia.
A deadlock on the visa-diplomatic relations in the west of Caucasus, no Eurovision contest in the East.
Not doors, but just small windows of communication and people to people contacts might open. But so far this option is denied.
Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili found unacceptable the preconditions to reciprocate the lifting of visa between Russia and Georgia and Armenian singers are requested not to go to Baku.

Different issues, same output. After a slight chance of un-freeze the situation, we are all pushed back to sub-normality.

Week 27 Feb.- 4 Mar.: Something new

It's not yet springtime, but already something new is in the air.
Not everywhere, thou.

On the Karabakhi-Azerbaijan contact line the exchange of fire has become an unpleasant evergreen. The only thing that seems to give it a break is the presence of the Minsk Group directly there. Usually, when some OSCE staff is there, there's not report of violations. A coincidence that underlines the urgent need to arrange some kind of - as low profile as possible - permanent monitoring. Or at least a couple of patrols of quick reaction monitoring.
So far, it's still a deep, cold and dark winter over there...

On the opposite, in western Caucasus a new interesting proposal sprang.
On the 25th January the Russian President Dmitry Medvedev declared Russia ready to restore diplomatic relations with Georgia.
There were remarks from Tbilisi and for the time being the thing didn't sound very promising at all.

Unexpectedly, again from the level of the presidency, a counter move from Tbilisi arrived, not in the form of a invitation, but as a concrete proposal: to lift visa rules towards all Russian citizens. There's already in force a favourable regime of visa for North Caucasians. And if this very liberal system wouldn't crash against new possible rules of restrictions of crossing - let's say, for security/anti-terrorism, or whatever -, it would mark a very positive development. Apparently, today there was a shooting close to Ganmukhuri. Let's wait for EUMM assessment about that (where there's a monitoring structure...)

It's just the beginning of March, perhaps it's too early for springtime first fruits.
And so the counter-suggestion of Moscow, to ease the law on occupied territories, turned a very pragmatical proposal in a political issue which may block the entire process.
Now the debate is around the unwelcome preconditions of the lifting, which means that the question has already moved to another level. Let's see if the twist is reversible.

But, whatever, there's something new on the list.

One life..

.. isn't enough.
Too busy again :-(

Week 12-19 Feb.: To untie the knots

As time goes by, the political landscape unties its knots in Armenia.
The present government coalition's parties will most probably run independently. On Monday Head of Republican Party of Armenia parliamentary faction, Deputy Chairman of the Party Galust Sahakyan dismissed rumours about a possible new coalition agreement. He didn't rule it out, still it's quite clear that Prosperous Armenia is doing its best to attract valuable names to its party list. Arthur Baghdasaryan, Rule of Law party, already declared that the party will run with its own proportional list.

Among the (many) opposition parties, Heritage and Free Democrats tried and find a common ground for action. Heritage may be a party that would manage to enter the National Assembly also running alone. Still, to be effective it would need something more than few seats. So, in the days following the congress of the 2nd of March the party may reveal its potential new allies' strategy.

Many parties (among them the Armenian Revolutionary Federation) are still working on their party lists. The vote is yet far, in May.
And it's even more far in Georgia, albeit a group proposed to anticipate the election date. The most vibrant part of the civil society is at present fully absorbed in the protest against the new Law on Parties. There are issues of concerns, according to relevant national and international organizations. And the government may indeed consider to amend it once more. After all, if the amendments are meant - as many voice - to prevent Bidzina Ivanishvili from interfering with all his money and power in the political life of the country, the measure may still be not only unfair but also disproportionate.

Meanwhile Ivanishvili unveiled the core team of his would-be party. He's still deprived of Georgian citizenship, so just mentioning how hopeful the party might be is totally premature. And the government has many months to come and all the tolls are at its disposal to gain even more consensus than the present, including insisting on the allegations of Ivanishvili's links with Moscow.

As the domestic politics evolves, in the year of parliamentary elections, from the south-east winds of war and instability blow . A car bomb was defused in Tbilisi. Target: the Israeli Embassy. Mastermind? Some suggest Iran. Iran denies, while its relations again touch a negative pick with Azerbaijan.
Some knots had better untie slowly and gently.

Week 6-12 FEB.: Parallels never meet

In Euclidean geometry, parallels never meet.
So seem to do Georgia and Russia.
On the other hand, like for parallels, they share something.

Right now the two countries share the common pattern of billioners contending the primate to the present leadership.
Prokhorov, in Russia, is a Presidential candidate. Ivanishvili in Georgia is much less: actually, he's not even a Georgian citizen. Not any longer. But he gained visibility, he has money and somehow he is in the political arena.

For each of them the previous presidents voiced their support: in Russia Michail Gorbachev said “I think it’s worth voting for him [Prokhorov].”; in Georgia Eduard Shevardnadze in January declared during an interview that he was sure that Ivanishvili would reach the power.
In both cases, the aspirants may not gain so much from this statements: both previous presidents are probably more listened abroad than domestically, and both of them are not really loved. For some citizens, they represent - much more than relevant opinion makers - Soviet geriatrics.

In both Georgia and Russia triumphalism seems to be the chosen political language of communication by the ruling class.
In Georgia Saakashvili came back from United States claiming to have achieved more that it was even conceivable, in the field of cooperation for defence capabilities.
Putin pledged, in case of his election, to cut inflation, to turn Russia in one of the world's economic centres, to drastically change the housing situation, to invest in religious buildings' reconstrucion and to refrain from interference in the affaires of religious association, and, not last, to return to "winter time" and to reverse the demographic crisis, making Russian population reach 154 million.

Both are not really credible: the two of them seem to be promising much more than they can get.
And probably their stubborn attachment to power is a destabilizing element in their systems.
Some Putin's supporters turned into "bench sitters" after the hand-over with Medvedev. They may not join the protests, but they are not really happy about how all the issue was managed. Some other just think he had his chance to reform the country, and that he did what he did, but now he's done with Russia.
And it's clear, as well, that a reply of the Medvedev-Putin tandem, after the amendment that strengthens the role of the Prime Minister in Georgia, wouldn't be welcome. At least not by the international community.

Let's see if the parallels will diverge exactly on this point.

It happens, sometimes

A lot of news and no inspiration

Week 22-29 Jan.: The right thing...

... at the wrong time.
At the beginning of the week Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev and Armenian one Serzh Sargsyan met in Sochi, guests of the Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, in the framework of the periodic endeavor to move a step onward, on the way of a political resolution of the Karabakh issue. Or at least to prevent violence to spiral up, more likely.

At the end of the meeting the joint statement reads: "Signifying Peace treaty development President of the Republic of Armenia and President of the Republic of Azerbaijan have expressed commitment to accelerate the agreement of Basic principles considering the work done so far."

But, few lines below, it's clarified what are the feasible measures that can be implemented at present: "In development of Sochi joint declaration adopted on March 5, 2011, presidents of the Republic of Armenia, Republic of Azerbaijan and Russian Federation approved co-chairs’ report on launching investigation mechanisms in the contact line, which they have co-developed with the personal representative of OSCE Chairperson-in-Office and recommended to continue that work."

The meeting took place just before Armenian militarist rhetoric would reach its pick.
The 28th of January marks the anniversary of the foundation of the Armenian Army. The twentieth anniversary was pompously celebrated, and Serzh Sargsyan declared:
"Twenty years ago, we turned the wheel of history. It that critical time, our nation reinstated its independent statehood and took total responsibility for the protection of its rights and national interests. At the moment of that historic rise, the creation of the Armenian army was one of the most momentous achievements.

There was an imperative to thwart the imminent danger of a genocide looming over the Armenian people and, particularly, over the Armenians of Artsakh. That vital episode of the army creation was necessitated by the time itself."

Somehow, the wording of the statements isn't going in the same direction... It wouldn't have been bad to end the celebration with the wish "NEVER AGAIN". But such wish - apparently - was not openly expressed.