Silence.
Silence is what we all need to be able to hear, in the noise of stupid TV programs, what we need to know to make the whole picture clear.
Probably that’s what a good and gifted journalist can do, to make his voice raise in the noise, and simply shape in few words his need of truth and share it with those who are not yet completely puzzled or annihilated by TV and shouts…
That’s what Hrant Dink did, and that’s what made him so dangerous.
To his memory, on the second anniversary of his murder.
Monday, January 19, 2009
Monday, September 22, 2008
Dear Readers,
As I am leaving for Georgia (civilian monitor EUMM), I'm not sure that I will keep the blog updated.
Marilisa
Marilisa
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Week 8 – 14 September: Georgia, the show must go on … or not?
On the 8th Shalva Natelashvili, the leader of the opposition Labor Party suggested, as a way to overcome the crisis in Georgia, that present leadership should resign. It is one of the breaches of the national unity that followed the August’s events.
Back the 12th from her tour in Europe and USA, Nino Buržanadze called for a probe about what happened. In straight contrast with the present national rhetoric, during a press conference she stressed that “[…] we have not won. We have been defeated severely in all directions.” Nino Buržanadze, one of the most popular politicians in the country, is a former supporter of President Saakashvili. She took distance from the Georgian leadership just before Parliamentary elections.
Actually, in the last year, Saakashili lost many comrades to the opposition, like former Foreign Minister Salome Zurabishvili, now of the Georgia’s way party, and former Defense Minister Irakli Okruashvili, arrested in September 2007 after having launched his own party, Movement for United Georgia, and who eventually fled to France. A French appeals court has rejected a request by Georgia to extradite him on the 10th .
President Saakashvili, during his speech in Gori, declared “I want to state with full responsibility: I am personally responsible and I assume full personal responsibility for each and every event […]. I also assume full personal responsibility for rebuilding and establishing peace in Georgia”, words that clearly suggest that he is not considering the chance to leave his position.
Back the 12th from her tour in Europe and USA, Nino Buržanadze called for a probe about what happened. In straight contrast with the present national rhetoric, during a press conference she stressed that “[…] we have not won. We have been defeated severely in all directions.” Nino Buržanadze, one of the most popular politicians in the country, is a former supporter of President Saakashvili. She took distance from the Georgian leadership just before Parliamentary elections.
Actually, in the last year, Saakashili lost many comrades to the opposition, like former Foreign Minister Salome Zurabishvili, now of the Georgia’s way party, and former Defense Minister Irakli Okruashvili, arrested in September 2007 after having launched his own party, Movement for United Georgia, and who eventually fled to France. A French appeals court has rejected a request by Georgia to extradite him on the 10th .
President Saakashvili, during his speech in Gori, declared “I want to state with full responsibility: I am personally responsible and I assume full personal responsibility for each and every event […]. I also assume full personal responsibility for rebuilding and establishing peace in Georgia”, words that clearly suggest that he is not considering the chance to leave his position.
Sunday, September 7, 2008
Week 1- 7 September: To shake hands
A week marked by Cheney’s visit in countries described as the most endangered. But not only: a lot of shaking hands, between the Turkish President and the Armenian one, between the members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization…
The most remarkable protagonist of the polics of shaking as many hands as possible is President Saakashvili. His position seems right now dependent on the support he can get from USA, and on the local propaganda. Together with a new definition of self determination and territorial sovereignty, also the concept of starting a war may face some change, if it’s true what Matthew Bryza said, that the war didn’t start “with the attack on Tskhinvali by Georgia, which we do believe was a mistake; but it began much sooner, thanks to provocations by South Ossetian militias, under the command, by the way, of Russian officers”. Is it such a support to last long? Does the polics of shaking hands pay back? For sure, Russians’ criticisms do, and they are helping the present Georgian President to keep his place.
But an inquiry on what happened seems unavoidable, opposition is not satisfied with the proposed Anti – Crisis Group and not fully with the so called “Charter of Politicians and political Parties”, and, not last, Nino Burjanadze is touring the United States…
Presidents of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan, members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization met. As the members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, they expressed support to Russia, but didn’t recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia. After Russia, just Nicaragua recognized the new two South Caucasian States, till now.
The worst position towards this matter is the Armenian one, squeezed between the needs to be in good relation with both Russia and Georgia, to welcome the principle of self determination for Nagorno Karabakh and still not to recognize any other State before it, right now that it’s trying to improve the relations with Turkey, as President Gül’s visit proves.
Finally, it’s six weeks to Azerbaijan Presidential election, and eight to Ajara’s Supreme Court one. Both events seem to be overshadowed now by what happened during this dramatic summer, and both are going to be effected by it, a lot.
The most remarkable protagonist of the polics of shaking as many hands as possible is President Saakashvili. His position seems right now dependent on the support he can get from USA, and on the local propaganda. Together with a new definition of self determination and territorial sovereignty, also the concept of starting a war may face some change, if it’s true what Matthew Bryza said, that the war didn’t start “with the attack on Tskhinvali by Georgia, which we do believe was a mistake; but it began much sooner, thanks to provocations by South Ossetian militias, under the command, by the way, of Russian officers”. Is it such a support to last long? Does the polics of shaking hands pay back? For sure, Russians’ criticisms do, and they are helping the present Georgian President to keep his place.
But an inquiry on what happened seems unavoidable, opposition is not satisfied with the proposed Anti – Crisis Group and not fully with the so called “Charter of Politicians and political Parties”, and, not last, Nino Burjanadze is touring the United States…
Presidents of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan, members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization met. As the members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, they expressed support to Russia, but didn’t recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia. After Russia, just Nicaragua recognized the new two South Caucasian States, till now.
The worst position towards this matter is the Armenian one, squeezed between the needs to be in good relation with both Russia and Georgia, to welcome the principle of self determination for Nagorno Karabakh and still not to recognize any other State before it, right now that it’s trying to improve the relations with Turkey, as President Gül’s visit proves.
Finally, it’s six weeks to Azerbaijan Presidential election, and eight to Ajara’s Supreme Court one. Both events seem to be overshadowed now by what happened during this dramatic summer, and both are going to be effected by it, a lot.
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Week 25 – 31 August: Unfrozen conflicts
For more than 15 years people in Caucasus got used to the concept of frozen conflicts of South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh. Some expected the conflicts to be settled, one day, some just lived as if they were to be kept frozen forever. None of these two options became reality: the military solution led to an “unfrozen situation” … with temperature close to a cold war…
From March on, after the recognition of Kosovo in February, tension was indeed escalating. On the 13th the Russian Duma recommended the Government to strengthen the ties with the two breakaway regions, and on the 15th Saakashvili reiterated his refusal to sign the treaty about non use of force stating that “We are told to sign a new agreement on the non-use of our armed forces – Georgia is a peaceful country and we have many times said that we want to settle all the conflicts only peacefully - but with whom should we sign this agreement?”.
Now the answer seems to be clearer: with the two new existing states of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. They may not enjoy the recognition of so many states as Kosova, but it’s pretty sure that there is no way to step back to older positions. South Ossetia and Abkhazia are lost.
The two new ethno-states, may be a very unfriendly environment for minorities, especially the Georgian one, and it’s highly improbable that the return of the new and old waves of refugees will be easy and in short term. This is another side effect of the misinterpretation of the principle of self determination, which is leading not only to the disregard of the territorial integrity of countries, but also to the de facto violation of the rights of minorities.
A political solution may have led to a progressive reintegration of IDPs, the military one just high picked mutual animosity. And this is one of the long term effects of this war. But, talking about short term effects, Saakashvili managed, till now, to survive the impact of his mistake. For the second time in few months he proved to be unable to handle situations of protracted high tension, and to prefer to resort to – hopefully – successful use of force. In November, against the opposition, in August, against South Ossetia. In both cases, although partially discredited, he got away with it. At least till now, but for sure he seems to be a much less reliable counterpart, than few weeks ago. Let alone the fact that the Russian Government wouldn’t like to consider him a counterpart at all.
The massive change occurred in the last 3 weeks will effect Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well. The first will have to face the suggested “united position” at the session of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) [Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan] on September the 5th, and support the Russian intervention. This may lead to another tense situation on its border, and, as Onnik Krikorian pointed out “Over 90 percent of [Armenia’s] trade goes through Georgia, and although Russia is considered its most strategic ally, military operations targetting civilian infrastructure — especially the railway bridge outside of Kaspi — adversely affected imports and exports." (http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/08/28/georgia-armenias-predicament/)
Azerbaijan got the message: Russian grip on the Caucasus is meant to be long lasting, and a frozen conflict is much more convenient than an unfrozen one…This must be kept for sure in regard with incoming elections and gas policies. Incidentally, the decision of official Baku to transport Azerbaijani gas to Europe via Russia will be adopted by results of talks with Gazprom and Turkey Enegry Ministry, as stated the 29th.
Russia position is firm and unshaken. Some voiced that the rest of the world will isolate it, ostracize it, or whatever. But it’s not true: as Putin suggested, the West is not the entire world, and, talking about world policy, no one should underestimate anymore the importance of China, which is standing by the Russian Federation. And, moreover, the West is not just Poland, the Baltic States, or even the United States... Who really thinks convenient to turn an Euroasiatic power into and Asiatic one, and find itself isolated, and cold, not metaphorically?
A mistake, at the beginning of August, which will be deterministically followed by many necessary others.
From March on, after the recognition of Kosovo in February, tension was indeed escalating. On the 13th the Russian Duma recommended the Government to strengthen the ties with the two breakaway regions, and on the 15th Saakashvili reiterated his refusal to sign the treaty about non use of force stating that “We are told to sign a new agreement on the non-use of our armed forces – Georgia is a peaceful country and we have many times said that we want to settle all the conflicts only peacefully - but with whom should we sign this agreement?”.
Now the answer seems to be clearer: with the two new existing states of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. They may not enjoy the recognition of so many states as Kosova, but it’s pretty sure that there is no way to step back to older positions. South Ossetia and Abkhazia are lost.
The two new ethno-states, may be a very unfriendly environment for minorities, especially the Georgian one, and it’s highly improbable that the return of the new and old waves of refugees will be easy and in short term. This is another side effect of the misinterpretation of the principle of self determination, which is leading not only to the disregard of the territorial integrity of countries, but also to the de facto violation of the rights of minorities.
A political solution may have led to a progressive reintegration of IDPs, the military one just high picked mutual animosity. And this is one of the long term effects of this war. But, talking about short term effects, Saakashvili managed, till now, to survive the impact of his mistake. For the second time in few months he proved to be unable to handle situations of protracted high tension, and to prefer to resort to – hopefully – successful use of force. In November, against the opposition, in August, against South Ossetia. In both cases, although partially discredited, he got away with it. At least till now, but for sure he seems to be a much less reliable counterpart, than few weeks ago. Let alone the fact that the Russian Government wouldn’t like to consider him a counterpart at all.
The massive change occurred in the last 3 weeks will effect Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well. The first will have to face the suggested “united position” at the session of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) [Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan] on September the 5th, and support the Russian intervention. This may lead to another tense situation on its border, and, as Onnik Krikorian pointed out “Over 90 percent of [Armenia’s] trade goes through Georgia, and although Russia is considered its most strategic ally, military operations targetting civilian infrastructure — especially the railway bridge outside of Kaspi — adversely affected imports and exports." (http://blog.oneworld.am/2008/08/28/georgia-armenias-predicament/)
Azerbaijan got the message: Russian grip on the Caucasus is meant to be long lasting, and a frozen conflict is much more convenient than an unfrozen one…This must be kept for sure in regard with incoming elections and gas policies. Incidentally, the decision of official Baku to transport Azerbaijani gas to Europe via Russia will be adopted by results of talks with Gazprom and Turkey Enegry Ministry, as stated the 29th.
Russia position is firm and unshaken. Some voiced that the rest of the world will isolate it, ostracize it, or whatever. But it’s not true: as Putin suggested, the West is not the entire world, and, talking about world policy, no one should underestimate anymore the importance of China, which is standing by the Russian Federation. And, moreover, the West is not just Poland, the Baltic States, or even the United States... Who really thinks convenient to turn an Euroasiatic power into and Asiatic one, and find itself isolated, and cold, not metaphorically?
A mistake, at the beginning of August, which will be deterministically followed by many necessary others.
Saturday, April 26, 2008
Monday, April 21, 2008
Week 14-20 April: Separatism or Social issues
In defining their own identities, people may rely on their job/level of life or on their cultural belonging. The first, at social level, is the economic cleavage, the second the national one. In Soviet time, because of the Marxist theory of the clash of classes, the first was the most stressed. In the era of the clash of civilizations, national issues are the most sensible ones. And thus, they can be used as tools of political pressures, if not of blackmail.
Georgian government, a month to the elections, is under the cleaver of Russian moves in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The RF government has taken the first steps for a recognition de facto of the two republics, although not yet of a political one. Putin’s instructions are that: “List of documents issued by Abkhaz and South Ossetian state agencies to individuals that are recognized by the state agencies of the Russian Federation is defined. Legal personality of legal entities, registered under the legislation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which is considered as lex personalis of such legal entities, is recognized as well. Federal bodies of the executive authorities are instructed to carry out cooperation with Abkhazia and South Ossetia in frames of legal assistance in the filed of civil, family and criminal laws. In case of necessity, the Russian Foreign Ministry’s local representations in Krasnodar district and in the Republic of North Ossetia–Alania will perform consular functions to provide assistance to persons permanently living in Abkhazia and South Ossetia[…] It is also envisaged to develop additional proposals on concrete directions of further interaction with Abkhazia and South Ossetia in favor of the social-economic development of these republics, protection of rights of the population living there, including the Russian citizens”.
For such a step, Russian government is blaming the Saakashvili administration, “which neglects the capabilities of the existing mechanisms for establishing normal economic relations, solving social problems…”, recently addressed by the Resolution of the UN Security Council (April 15). Moscow is discrediting the present administrations in its ability to protect State’s territorial integrity, in having good relation with its neighbour, in peacefully negotiating. Its aim is to show that Russia has nothing again Georgia in itself (visa restriction to Georgian citizens has being lifted, decisions for a further normalization taken).
Karabakh is not mentioned in this effort to “promote … the stability in Caucasus”, as Lavrov said. But Razim Agaev, an Azeri political analyst, suggests that Russian support to separatism may spread to Karabakh. For sure, whoever plans a colour revolution in Azerbaijan, catching the chance of next presidential elections, must face the probability to loose the Karabakh. Or, at least, to be challenged on it.
In Armenia, the new administration will carry the same politics as the previous one, about the Karabakh issue. Another Karabakhi entered the cabinet, the Minister of Defense. But it is not the national cleavage that the new President wants to pursue. Quite the opposite, after the unpleasant and almost fratricide confrontation between Karabakhis and Armenians in the days of post-election demonstrations, the message about all the matter is just continuity and stability. The main focus of the Government is not the promotion of a micro-ethnicity (like Kosovarism, as a different Albanian identity), but social issues, the only ones that, if dealt successfully, can provide legitimacy and consensus to the four parties coalition government and the President.
Georgian government, a month to the elections, is under the cleaver of Russian moves in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The RF government has taken the first steps for a recognition de facto of the two republics, although not yet of a political one. Putin’s instructions are that: “List of documents issued by Abkhaz and South Ossetian state agencies to individuals that are recognized by the state agencies of the Russian Federation is defined. Legal personality of legal entities, registered under the legislation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which is considered as lex personalis of such legal entities, is recognized as well. Federal bodies of the executive authorities are instructed to carry out cooperation with Abkhazia and South Ossetia in frames of legal assistance in the filed of civil, family and criminal laws. In case of necessity, the Russian Foreign Ministry’s local representations in Krasnodar district and in the Republic of North Ossetia–Alania will perform consular functions to provide assistance to persons permanently living in Abkhazia and South Ossetia[…] It is also envisaged to develop additional proposals on concrete directions of further interaction with Abkhazia and South Ossetia in favor of the social-economic development of these republics, protection of rights of the population living there, including the Russian citizens”.
For such a step, Russian government is blaming the Saakashvili administration, “which neglects the capabilities of the existing mechanisms for establishing normal economic relations, solving social problems…”, recently addressed by the Resolution of the UN Security Council (April 15). Moscow is discrediting the present administrations in its ability to protect State’s territorial integrity, in having good relation with its neighbour, in peacefully negotiating. Its aim is to show that Russia has nothing again Georgia in itself (visa restriction to Georgian citizens has being lifted, decisions for a further normalization taken).
Karabakh is not mentioned in this effort to “promote … the stability in Caucasus”, as Lavrov said. But Razim Agaev, an Azeri political analyst, suggests that Russian support to separatism may spread to Karabakh. For sure, whoever plans a colour revolution in Azerbaijan, catching the chance of next presidential elections, must face the probability to loose the Karabakh. Or, at least, to be challenged on it.
In Armenia, the new administration will carry the same politics as the previous one, about the Karabakh issue. Another Karabakhi entered the cabinet, the Minister of Defense. But it is not the national cleavage that the new President wants to pursue. Quite the opposite, after the unpleasant and almost fratricide confrontation between Karabakhis and Armenians in the days of post-election demonstrations, the message about all the matter is just continuity and stability. The main focus of the Government is not the promotion of a micro-ethnicity (like Kosovarism, as a different Albanian identity), but social issues, the only ones that, if dealt successfully, can provide legitimacy and consensus to the four parties coalition government and the President.
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