Again about wars and wars’ strategies… Can a prolonged conflict be annoying? And two? And Three?
Wars are tragic, dramatic and – when they are never ending – really too much. Actually they are too much from the very beginning.
So, after having gained all the possible attention on its warmonger approach to the conflict solution of the protracted Nagorno Karabakh conflict, Azerbaijan devoted the 26th Feb. to the commemoration of the Xocalı massacre.
The tragic event left on the memory of the Azerbaijani nation a flood of blood, and an opaque (beyond the official version) reconstruction of what happened. While the Armenian side from the very beginning denied responsibilities (http://www.un.org/documents/ga/docs/52/plenary/a52-85.htm), few voices in Azerbaijan claimed the need for further investigations and disclosed unspeakable hypothesis. One of them, Elmar Hüseynov, was killed in 2005. Another one, Eynulla Fatullayev, is still in prison (http://www.amnestyusa.org/bannedbooks/pdf/eynullafatullayez.pdf).
The present is in the midst of history and its narration, and the future in the choices to be made.
So, much ado about nothing or is really Azerbaijan on the warpath? The very last words of the Minister of Foreign Affairs suggest that no, there is still room for negotiation.
Without needing to go back to sophisticated strategies such as the Trojan horse, for sure after so much war propaganda, in case of conflict Azerbaijan would have pulled on itself all the blame. And it is not desirable.
Negotiation should be carried out at presidential level. This sounds very promising, somehow. Still, according to the amendment of article 11 of the Azerbaijani Constitution any alteration of the State borders should be approved via referendum, and not via referendum or presidential decree, as it was stated before 2002. Harder and harder…
What about a Georgian Trojan horse?
The National Security Concept to be approved by Georgian lawmakers specifies that “Georgia realizes necessity of deepening and developing relations with brotherly people living in the North Caucasus,”
It is totally reasonable for a country to devote its efforts to have good relations with its immediate neighbours. At the same time a regional approach can be very tricky. Russia is facing tremendous costs in coping with North Caucasus. Just to give the update list of casualties among law enforcement agents and militants: 12. Feb. Ingushetia, 2; 15 Feb. Chechnya, 2; 19 Feb. Kabardino/Balkaria, 4; 22 Feb. Kabardino Balkaria, 3; 26 Feb. Chechnya, 3; 27 Feb. Chechnya, 3.
An overreaction to a Trojan horse, or an even slightly perceived one, is not totally unpredictable.
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The brotherly people living in the North Caucasus as a Trojan horse in Georgia? Who would believe such a conspiracy theory (except in the Caucasus, that is)? Besides, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili's National Security Concept is only in line with his other security, albeit militarily somewhat self-defeating policies. On 11 October 2010, Saakashvili signed a decree abolishing visa requirements for citizens of Russia’s North Caucasus republics as a step to facilitate tourism, trade and educational relations. This decision may open the country up to terrorism, stated Georgian former President Eduard Shevardnadze, who also noted that Georgia may see a mass inflow of Chechens, as occurred after the first Russian-Chechen war. But so what? A few terrorists would not mark a first in Georgia. A more intriguing scenario, for the doomsayers, can of course be postulated by those who remember the Confederation of Mountain Peoples of the Caucasus, a controversial organization formed at the time of the Soviet Union’s dissolution and later renamed the Confederation of the Peoples of the Caucasus (CPC). The Confederation was primarily known for sending volunteer fighters to assist the Abkhaz against the Georgians in the first post-Soviet conflict between the two which led to the de facto independence of Abkhazia. With Saakashvili's decree in force, such volunteers in any future Georgian conflict would at least not be guilty of illegal entry. But always look on the bright side of life! The typical Russian army unit nowadays consists of few North Caucasians, so in case Saakashvili contemplates any future war with Russia, the decree could not be invoked to let in a Russian invasion army.
An uspide-down conspiracy theory? Anyway, as far as Saakashvili's proposals of cooperation to North Caucasus Republics are not in violation of the RF legal framework,they are all legitimate, whatever their impact might be. An empty Trojan horse...?
BTW: are you suggesting to put the international offence of occupation under the umbrella of illigal migration? There's room for widening the number of charges...
Very impressive stuff. Thanks for sharing
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