Monday, August 1, 2011

Week 25-31 July: Do ut des

There's always at least one reason why things are the way they are.
And the reason is quite seldom a matter of principle.

Let's start with the meeting of Ilia II and Kirill. The Moscow Patriarcate is not recognizing the scism of the Sukhumi and Tskhinvali ones. Still, it's not ignoring the issue.
But if Sukhumi and Tskhinvali would ever be recognized as independent State churches, this would trigger Georgian recognition of the Ukrainian church.
So, not recognition in exchange of not recognition. Fair enough, someone would say.

And talking about Sukhumi: it's a hot August, for politics.
Elections are approaching and the three candidates - Sergey Shamba, Raul Khadjimba, Alexander Ankvab - have signed a charter for free and fair elections. The charter was proposed by the Forum for the Popular Union of Abkhazia, whose candidate is Khadjimba, in exchange of? Well, visibility, consensus... usual patterns in electoral campaign.
A gentlemen agreement to refrain from bad propaganda of to be stick to the best possible fair play would have been more elegant, probably... and less ambiguous as an assessment or a hint of the potential quality of elections, by the way.
The three tandems (presidential candidate+his vice president) are: Sergey Shamba+Shamil Adzimba; Alexander Ankvab+Mikhail Logua; Raul Khadjimba+Svetlana Dzhrgenija Ardzimba.
One woman, in exchange of her surname, being the widow of the first de facto President.

In Armenia, as well, rumours about elections are intensifying. And thus, elections or not, preparations are ongoing.
President Sargsyan may concede early parliamentary elections in exchange of what?
A democratic trump card (I called elections when asked, I made them be free and fair) to play during presidential elections campaign?
A shared responsibility- assuming that more opposition members might win parliamentary seats - in case of "phase 2" of Nagorno Karabakh talks?

But is there going to be a "phase 2" in Nagorno Karabakh talks?
Is it a card that Medvedev is considering to play for his presidential campaign? (Look: I am the man who solves decades-protracted conflicts, with force, when needed, with diplomacy, when possible)?

Nothing happens by chance.

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