Sunday, September 4, 2011

Week 29h August - 04th September: You’ve made your bed, now you must lie in it!

13 November is going to be elections and referendum day in Tskhinvali.
Presidential elections. After all the manoeuvring, it's clear that Eduard Kokoity is not going to try any trick to be re-elected. It would be his third mandate, and it's against constitutional provisions.
While elections process in Abkhazia went on quite smoothly, it's clear that the situation in South Ossetia is different. It's even clearer that South Ossetia is different.
According to unconfirmed rumours, a group consisting of officials from the Russian President’s administration, Federal Security Service, Foreign Intelligence Service, Ministry of Defense, Foreign Ministry, Ministry of Regional Development and administration of the Russian government shortlisted three names: Dmitry
Medoev, Zurab Kokoev, Anatoly Bibilov. The latter is more likely to be one of the candidates. (, Kommersant)

But it's South Ossetia, and to many the region means first of all the power of the Tadeev clan. And Anatolij Tadeev, wrestler and successful businessman has just come back home. He was welcomed by the explosion of a Neva car. He suffered no injuries. The same cannot be said about Alksander Bel'shakov, ex chief of the South Ossetian presidential administration, found dead. Investigations will follow.

It's a long way to November.
South Ossetia is a self proclaimed Republic. Russia recognized it.
You’ve made your bed, now you must lie in it...

From a wrestler to another. What's in the mind of Gagik Kolyai Tsarukyan?
With Armenia more and more in elections mood, the oligarch may feel confident enough to leave Sargsyan and try another combination, if not to run alone. The party has invested money (as he is not in shortage...) to re-define itself and be more credible. Doubtfully he's the kind to win the hearts and minds of Armenians.
As for the "opposition", apparently the dialogue between the Armenian National Congress (ANC) and the government fell apart. Incompatible positions or the ANC started to sense that the general public may not distinguish one old President from the other if they both sit at the same table?

Now what? What's the next smart step to take not to lose the what has been gained in terms of visibility and credibility during spring?
Another tough confrontation? What if it fails to mobilize people, who may happen to be more concerned about inflation and increasing prices?

You’ve made your bed, now you must lie in it!

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