Saturday, July 21, 2012

July in bloom (under the storm)

It's a weird summer in Caucasus.
The stormy weather that swept Krasnodar is swirling above south Caucasus as well.
As a result Georgia and Azerbaijan suffered distructions and losses.

Still, at least two men are in bloom.
For Bako Sahakyan and Vano Merabishvili 2012 is the summer of personal satisfaction.
The first has just been re-elected president, allegedly by 47.000 Karabakhi - that is to say the 66% of the (depopulated) region of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Previously he had been Interior Minister and head of Security Service of the self proclaimed Republic.
This is his second term. Five years ago he received 85% of votes.
It means he has lost 20% of supporters in five years. Still his leading position is not trembling.
Not as much as the ceasefire, at least.

The low intensity conflict along the ceasefire line goes on, but Sahakyan is not losing his cold blood or his temper.
He sounds quite confident that no conflict will really threat the national security.
In the last month he received visits from the top officials of Armenia, actually during the election campaign.
He promises to promote Karabakh development for the next five years.
Is there something going on - e.g. a flurry of bullets - that deserves a bit more efforts or not?

The second is also another Minister of Interior Affairs is in full bloom: newly appointed Prime Minister Merabishvili.
Once the grey eminence of Georgian security system, he has now turned into a kind of manager on loan to politics.
And as the storms hits badly Georgia, he is displaying his crisis management abilities, like the perfect businessman.
No "international" tributes to him (and to his new government, which looks pretty much militarized). Still, it all smells like a election campaign as well.
And it's a long election campaign, indeed, that is draining not waters, but energies and legitimacy in the country already since months. And it's yet a long way till October.
A long, rocky and steep path, under a persistent storm of rain and hail.

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