Armenian parliamentary elections were held on 6 May
2012. Five parties and a coalition won seats in
Parliament. Three of them are opposition parties, two in
the previous legislature were allies of the presidency
party, the Republican Party. The latter comfortably won
the elections. With 45% votes through the proportional
system and 29 seats through the majoritarian one, the
Republican Party has the majority of seats, 69
out of 131.
So the two main issues in Armenian foreign
policy - the protracted conflict with Azerbaijan over
Nagorno-Karabakh and relations with Turkey - will be
addressed in continuity with the policy expressed so far
by President Serzh Sargsyan, unless the regional
counterparts change their strategies. With the party he
chairs being confirmed as the leading political force of
the country, Sargsyan will run for his second term in the
upcoming presidential elections.
(full working paper in English available at http://www.iai.it/pdf/DocIAI) /iaiwp1214.pdf
Thursday, May 10, 2012
Saturday, May 5, 2012
The day before Armenian Parliamentary elections: A critical juncture
(A reflection about the international context)
The Russian Federation’s security system echelon has been visiting Armenia since the beginning of 2012. In January Secretary of the Armenian National Security Council Arthur Baghdasaryan received a delegation led by Russian Deputy Secretary of the Security Council of Russia Valentin Sobolev to discuss the cooperation programme between the Armenian and Russian Security Councils for 2012-2013. In those days President Sargsyan was meeting in Sochi Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev and Dmitrij Medvedev. In February Secretary General of the Russian Security Council Nikolaj Patrušeev arrived in Armenia accompanied by the Commander in Chief of Land Forces Alexander Postnikov, the Federal Military and Technical Cooperation Service Deputy Director Konstantin Birjulin, the Deputy Chief of Boarder Service Nikolaj Kozik, the head of the “Russian border” federal agency Dmitrij Bezdelov and other senior statesmen. Arthur Baghdasaryan held private talks in the Russian Federation Department of Border in Armenia. The delegation was then hosted by the Armenian President. The sides agreed to sign a new treaty and reached agreements on military technical, border defence and emergency situations issues. On 2 April Russian Foreign Minister Sergej Lavrov arrived in Yerevan.
Armenia and Russia have a long tradition of deep, comprehensive and friendly cooperation. But in view of the present crisis in the Middle East, Russia is probably focussing on the enhancement of its most advanced southern bases, including Gyumri in Armenia. According to the former Pentagon official and defence analyst Michael Maloof: “Moscow [is] increasingly uneasy in terms of instability in the region of what Syria is just one aspect of a larger problem […]. For example, Russia is moving more troops and modernizing its base in Armenia in anticipation of the whole crisis in the Middle East from Syria to Iran”.
The Syrian and Iranian crises do affect Armenia not only because of the Russian military resources located in its territory, but also because the two countries have significant Armenian minorities. So far Yerevan has not taken the step to repatriate some of them, like Moscow did with Syrian citizens of North Caucasian origins (Itar-Tass, Federation Council to evaluate security of North Caucasians in Syria, 17 Feb. 2012, http://www.itar-tass.com/en/c154/345990.html; Itar-Tass, Working commissions for admitting compatriots from Syria set up, 26 March 2012, http://www.itar-tass.com/en/c154/375337.html ). Still it is following the crisis and reports of incidents involving Armenians are widely reported by the media.
For Armenia an escalation of the Iranian issue is particularly worrying. The two states share a border and they cooperate on many fields. Squeezed between Azerbaijan and Turkey, Armenia has only two open land borders: to the north with Georgia and to the south with Iran.
These real or perceived threats may be a factor influencing voters’ behaviours, leading them to express a preference for continuity, provided that the latter embeds elements of development and social equity.
The Russian Federation’s security system echelon has been visiting Armenia since the beginning of 2012. In January Secretary of the Armenian National Security Council Arthur Baghdasaryan received a delegation led by Russian Deputy Secretary of the Security Council of Russia Valentin Sobolev to discuss the cooperation programme between the Armenian and Russian Security Councils for 2012-2013. In those days President Sargsyan was meeting in Sochi Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev and Dmitrij Medvedev. In February Secretary General of the Russian Security Council Nikolaj Patrušeev arrived in Armenia accompanied by the Commander in Chief of Land Forces Alexander Postnikov, the Federal Military and Technical Cooperation Service Deputy Director Konstantin Birjulin, the Deputy Chief of Boarder Service Nikolaj Kozik, the head of the “Russian border” federal agency Dmitrij Bezdelov and other senior statesmen. Arthur Baghdasaryan held private talks in the Russian Federation Department of Border in Armenia. The delegation was then hosted by the Armenian President. The sides agreed to sign a new treaty and reached agreements on military technical, border defence and emergency situations issues. On 2 April Russian Foreign Minister Sergej Lavrov arrived in Yerevan.
Armenia and Russia have a long tradition of deep, comprehensive and friendly cooperation. But in view of the present crisis in the Middle East, Russia is probably focussing on the enhancement of its most advanced southern bases, including Gyumri in Armenia. According to the former Pentagon official and defence analyst Michael Maloof: “Moscow [is] increasingly uneasy in terms of instability in the region of what Syria is just one aspect of a larger problem […]. For example, Russia is moving more troops and modernizing its base in Armenia in anticipation of the whole crisis in the Middle East from Syria to Iran”.
The Syrian and Iranian crises do affect Armenia not only because of the Russian military resources located in its territory, but also because the two countries have significant Armenian minorities. So far Yerevan has not taken the step to repatriate some of them, like Moscow did with Syrian citizens of North Caucasian origins (Itar-Tass, Federation Council to evaluate security of North Caucasians in Syria, 17 Feb. 2012, http://www.itar-tass.com/en/c154/345990.html; Itar-Tass, Working commissions for admitting compatriots from Syria set up, 26 March 2012, http://www.itar-tass.com/en/c154/375337.html ). Still it is following the crisis and reports of incidents involving Armenians are widely reported by the media.
For Armenia an escalation of the Iranian issue is particularly worrying. The two states share a border and they cooperate on many fields. Squeezed between Azerbaijan and Turkey, Armenia has only two open land borders: to the north with Georgia and to the south with Iran.
These real or perceived threats may be a factor influencing voters’ behaviours, leading them to express a preference for continuity, provided that the latter embeds elements of development and social equity.
Monday, April 30, 2012
Week 22-29 April: Back to earth
In the last two weeks there was not a single day without a violation of the ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
In the last days, violations resulted in casualties.
Incidents are recorded non only along the former administrative boundary line of Karabakh, but also on the border between the two states.
When the Karabakh war erupted, more than twenty years ago, something was different: there was not the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) yet, and Armenia and Azerbaijan were under the same umbrella.
Things have changed since then. Armenia belongs to CSTO and Azerbaijan is not aligned.
In case of aggression, Armenia would most probably call for the protection of the Organization.
The key question is if this low intensity conflict will turn into an open war, that is to say, if one of the two - Azerbaijan, which is more interested in changing the status quo - will try and invade Karabakh and strategically useful sites in Armenia.
The escalation seems at present unavoidable.
Still, in May Azerbaijan is hosting Eurovision, so any military action right now should be ruled out.
In September Armenia will host CSTO drills. Again, it would be unwise to start military operations then. Not to mention that Russian ones, Kavkaz 2012, are planned in the same period.
A summer tentative blitz? The new Azerbaijani armory called for a huge investment. Why, if not for a war?
Someone is playing with fire, but most probably someone else is determined to back the player to earth.
Perhaps someone who is investing a lot in a huge event like Olympiads in the Caucasus and who is well aware that a blitz will never be successful in Karabakh.
So to speak, Abkhazians policy took off, as well.
Separatist officials took an extremely tough stance against EUMM head of Mission and - without even the shortest notice - cancelled the Incident Prevention and Response Mechanism (IPRM) meeting in Gali.
It's clear that De facto President Ankvab is not Bagapsh.
Still, in the last three years IPRM proved to be a very valuable instrument, so pragmatically, it would make sense to land, back to earth... in not to the earth of Gali, as EUMM head of Mission is not "persona non grata", to Ganmukhuri or Zugdidi...
In the last days, violations resulted in casualties.
Incidents are recorded non only along the former administrative boundary line of Karabakh, but also on the border between the two states.
When the Karabakh war erupted, more than twenty years ago, something was different: there was not the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) yet, and Armenia and Azerbaijan were under the same umbrella.
Things have changed since then. Armenia belongs to CSTO and Azerbaijan is not aligned.
In case of aggression, Armenia would most probably call for the protection of the Organization.
The key question is if this low intensity conflict will turn into an open war, that is to say, if one of the two - Azerbaijan, which is more interested in changing the status quo - will try and invade Karabakh and strategically useful sites in Armenia.
The escalation seems at present unavoidable.
Still, in May Azerbaijan is hosting Eurovision, so any military action right now should be ruled out.
In September Armenia will host CSTO drills. Again, it would be unwise to start military operations then. Not to mention that Russian ones, Kavkaz 2012, are planned in the same period.
A summer tentative blitz? The new Azerbaijani armory called for a huge investment. Why, if not for a war?
Someone is playing with fire, but most probably someone else is determined to back the player to earth.
Perhaps someone who is investing a lot in a huge event like Olympiads in the Caucasus and who is well aware that a blitz will never be successful in Karabakh.
So to speak, Abkhazians policy took off, as well.
Separatist officials took an extremely tough stance against EUMM head of Mission and - without even the shortest notice - cancelled the Incident Prevention and Response Mechanism (IPRM) meeting in Gali.
It's clear that De facto President Ankvab is not Bagapsh.
Still, in the last three years IPRM proved to be a very valuable instrument, so pragmatically, it would make sense to land, back to earth... in not to the earth of Gali, as EUMM head of Mission is not "persona non grata", to Ganmukhuri or Zugdidi...
Monday, April 16, 2012
Week 9-15 April: Nothing will be the same again
... it will be worse.
Actually, it's hard to say when the "before" benchmark should be fixed.
One thing is for sure: the permanent, growing use of hate speech as the standard political communication in South Caucasus.
In Georgia President Saakashvili, according to Civil.ge, after attending Orthodox Easter service in the Holy Trinity Cathedral in Tbilisi on Sunday said that "Evil force", which occupies parts of Georgia where "our churches are trampled down", will "retreat and definitely be defeated", and that occupation of 20% of [Georgia's] territory by the enemy" [is]"of course a temporary situation". He said that the Easter was symbolizing victory of good over evil and this holiday was fitting well to "the optimistic nature of the Georgian nation."
Was it necessary and appropriate to comment in such a way Orthodox Easter?
It should be recalled that there are specific provisions in UN Resolutions about Georgia/Abkhazia/South Ossetia which address the use of militant rhetoric: Resolution 1666/2006, point 6; Resolution 1582/2005, point 8; Resolution 1554/2004 point 7, which clearly states, to quote one example: "[...] publicly dissociate themselves from all militant rhetoric and demonstration of support for military options".
Georgian President Saakashvili is not an exception in South Caucasus. And the results of the systematic use of hate speech is visible. You don't have to wait for a war to appreciate its fruits. Not even for a slightest threat of national security, to be more exact.
Take the case of the Azerbaijani Film Festival in Gyumri, Armenia.
In the days when Yerevan is promoting the program of the National cinema center of Armenia in Cannes, this is what happened with the film Azerbaijani Film Festival, organized by the Armenia-based Caucasus Center for Peace-Making Initiatives and supported by the U.S. and UK embassies:
«STOP» Azerbaijani Film Festival in Armenia has been blocked as a result of a terror and blackmailing carried out by pressure groups that try to disguise their actions by an alleged "wave of public outrage." The organizers and potential viewers of the festival receive threats of physical revenge through the internet and phone. Those who threaten disseminate information about planned actions of vandalism and terror to take place during the festival. At the same time the festival is blocked by blackmailing and putting pressure on the owners of the premises rented by our organization. In all these cases people are so scared that they refuse to provide any information about the blackmailers.Several mass media outlets and individuals are involved in this anti-festival campaign. They actively disseminate false information and libel about the activities of the Caucasus Center of Peace-Making Initiatives (CCPMI). The pressure on people related to CCPMI increases every day. (http://southcaucasus.com/old/index.php?page=current&id=2544)
The title of the Armenian movie to be presented in Cannes is: “Your grief is mine”
Hate Speech is the grief of whoever has to deal with South Caucasus.
Actually, it's hard to say when the "before" benchmark should be fixed.
One thing is for sure: the permanent, growing use of hate speech as the standard political communication in South Caucasus.
In Georgia President Saakashvili, according to Civil.ge, after attending Orthodox Easter service in the Holy Trinity Cathedral in Tbilisi on Sunday said that "Evil force", which occupies parts of Georgia where "our churches are trampled down", will "retreat and definitely be defeated", and that occupation of 20% of [Georgia's] territory by the enemy" [is]"of course a temporary situation". He said that the Easter was symbolizing victory of good over evil and this holiday was fitting well to "the optimistic nature of the Georgian nation."
Was it necessary and appropriate to comment in such a way Orthodox Easter?
It should be recalled that there are specific provisions in UN Resolutions about Georgia/Abkhazia/South Ossetia which address the use of militant rhetoric: Resolution 1666/2006, point 6; Resolution 1582/2005, point 8; Resolution 1554/2004 point 7, which clearly states, to quote one example: "[...] publicly dissociate themselves from all militant rhetoric and demonstration of support for military options".
Georgian President Saakashvili is not an exception in South Caucasus. And the results of the systematic use of hate speech is visible. You don't have to wait for a war to appreciate its fruits. Not even for a slightest threat of national security, to be more exact.
Take the case of the Azerbaijani Film Festival in Gyumri, Armenia.
In the days when Yerevan is promoting the program of the National cinema center of Armenia in Cannes, this is what happened with the film Azerbaijani Film Festival, organized by the Armenia-based Caucasus Center for Peace-Making Initiatives and supported by the U.S. and UK embassies:
«STOP» Azerbaijani Film Festival in Armenia has been blocked as a result of a terror and blackmailing carried out by pressure groups that try to disguise their actions by an alleged "wave of public outrage." The organizers and potential viewers of the festival receive threats of physical revenge through the internet and phone. Those who threaten disseminate information about planned actions of vandalism and terror to take place during the festival. At the same time the festival is blocked by blackmailing and putting pressure on the owners of the premises rented by our organization. In all these cases people are so scared that they refuse to provide any information about the blackmailers.Several mass media outlets and individuals are involved in this anti-festival campaign. They actively disseminate false information and libel about the activities of the Caucasus Center of Peace-Making Initiatives (CCPMI). The pressure on people related to CCPMI increases every day. (http://southcaucasus.com/old/index.php?page=current&id=2544)
The title of the Armenian movie to be presented in Cannes is: “Your grief is mine”
Hate Speech is the grief of whoever has to deal with South Caucasus.
Monday, April 2, 2012
Week 25 March - 01 April: On uneven legs
Quotation from the Geneva International Discussions (GD), XIX Session, 28-29 March, Co-Chairs' press communique:
"In Working Group I, the participants reviewed the security situation on the ground and welcomed the relatively stable environment, despite an increase of the number of the violent incidents along the Inguri river. The value of the Incident Prevention and Response Mechanisms in ensuring continued stability was reiterated by all participants. The participants continued to discuss Non-Use of Force and International Security Arrangements. A new contribution was tabled in the context of the discussion on non-use of force commitments by participants. Deliberations on these topics will be resumed at the next round. The Co-Chairs encouraged participants to engage in confidence-building, based on positive practice of the IPRMs.
In Working Group II, the participants reviewed the humanitarian situation, focusing on the needs and challenges of displaced persons and vulnerable populations. In addition, specific issues such as missing persons, education and cultural heritage preservation were discussed. In an information session, participants were given the opportunity to increase their knowledge of the legal framework governing the preservation of cultural heritage. The participants were given an update on various water-related projects led by the OSCE and financed by the EU."
An incouraging routine, which is working for the last three and half years.
A far less encouranging quotation from International Nuclear Summit, Seoul, 27 March, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan's speech:
“As for the disinformation broadcasted here by the President of Azerbaijan regarding the Armenia NPS, it doesn’t surprise me a bit because vilification of Armenia has become a modus operandi for Azerbaijan long ago. Not only every issue related to Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh is presented from the highest podiums in the most perverted way but also the documents adopted by the international community, i.e. by us and by you. Even the UN Security Council resolutions related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict are distorted, neglecting the fact that they were the ones who started the military actions; they were the ones who refused to cease them, they are the ones who voice belligerent statements on a daily basis and refuse to solve the NK issue in accordance with international law[...]”
The GD are deemed unsatisfactory by many, and unfortunately even when participants assess a session positively, as Georgian ones this time, they cannot influence mutual relations among the parties involved or their behaviour or choices outside the process itself. And that's something that endangers their continuity and prospects.
Still, they're definitely much more than the limping cease-fire arrangements in force between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The term limping sounds optimist, actually. Falling is a term describing better what's going on.
Stability does not proceed on uneven legs.
"In Working Group I, the participants reviewed the security situation on the ground and welcomed the relatively stable environment, despite an increase of the number of the violent incidents along the Inguri river. The value of the Incident Prevention and Response Mechanisms in ensuring continued stability was reiterated by all participants. The participants continued to discuss Non-Use of Force and International Security Arrangements. A new contribution was tabled in the context of the discussion on non-use of force commitments by participants. Deliberations on these topics will be resumed at the next round. The Co-Chairs encouraged participants to engage in confidence-building, based on positive practice of the IPRMs.
In Working Group II, the participants reviewed the humanitarian situation, focusing on the needs and challenges of displaced persons and vulnerable populations. In addition, specific issues such as missing persons, education and cultural heritage preservation were discussed. In an information session, participants were given the opportunity to increase their knowledge of the legal framework governing the preservation of cultural heritage. The participants were given an update on various water-related projects led by the OSCE and financed by the EU."
An incouraging routine, which is working for the last three and half years.
A far less encouranging quotation from International Nuclear Summit, Seoul, 27 March, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan's speech:
“As for the disinformation broadcasted here by the President of Azerbaijan regarding the Armenia NPS, it doesn’t surprise me a bit because vilification of Armenia has become a modus operandi for Azerbaijan long ago. Not only every issue related to Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh is presented from the highest podiums in the most perverted way but also the documents adopted by the international community, i.e. by us and by you. Even the UN Security Council resolutions related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict are distorted, neglecting the fact that they were the ones who started the military actions; they were the ones who refused to cease them, they are the ones who voice belligerent statements on a daily basis and refuse to solve the NK issue in accordance with international law[...]”
The GD are deemed unsatisfactory by many, and unfortunately even when participants assess a session positively, as Georgian ones this time, they cannot influence mutual relations among the parties involved or their behaviour or choices outside the process itself. And that's something that endangers their continuity and prospects.
Still, they're definitely much more than the limping cease-fire arrangements in force between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The term limping sounds optimist, actually. Falling is a term describing better what's going on.
Stability does not proceed on uneven legs.
Monday, March 26, 2012
Week 19-25 March: What springs in spring
A warm, not really hot, weekend in Georgian breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
And it's not because of the blooming spring. It was the weekend of contemporary elections. Albeit for different reasons.
In South Ossetia, although this time the vote was considered legitimate, no new president's name sprang from the ballots. It should be remember that it's since November that South Ossetia is trying to elect its president.
Head of the delegation of the Russian Public Chamber Maxim Grigoryev, while monitoring the process, assessed that the elections passed in the calm atmosphere.
Well, it would be surprising if five months after the mobilitation, with their first preference ignored, the few people who live in South Ossetia would still feel excited about the vote.
Anyway, no candidate reached the 50%+1, so there's going to be a runoff between the most voted two: Leonid Tibilov (42.48%) and David Sanakoyev (24.58%). The first one has a KGB background, the second a Human Rights one.
Still, it's hardly predictable that it would make any difference who, on the 7th or 8th of April, will eventually become the president.
This second round should be considered the peak of lowering expectations for South Ossetian political life.
Moreover, none of the two was suggesting something really shaking. Just Stanislav Kochiyev, the leader of the South Ossetian Communist Party, had in his program the re-unification with North Ossetia (which means annexation to Russia) but he scored just 5.26%.
At least, this sounds like a reasonable projection: so called independence twinned by a growing dependence from Russia.
But it's just a projection. After such troubled elections, it's hazardous to make forecasts.
So was hard to forecast the bad performance of political parties in Abkhazia.
Electors gave preference to independent candidates [11/13] in the first round, and confirmed the trend [15/20] in the second.
Being independent doesn't necessary mean being anti-government. So, it's not necessary a vote of protest. But it's definitely a sign that political parties in the region cannot rely on a stable, loyal electoral base.
A bad spring surprise for local parties.
A good confirmation, not as an unpredictable surprise, came from Armenia.
After some speculations, it's official: Armenian delegation will participate in the work of Euronest plenary session to be held in Baku on April 1-4.
Since Armenia withdrew its participation from Eurovision, some members of the delegation started to voice their concerns about security warrants.
So, through EU mediation, a little step has been taken, and Armenian politicians will visit a hopefully warm, spring Baku.
And it's not because of the blooming spring. It was the weekend of contemporary elections. Albeit for different reasons.
In South Ossetia, although this time the vote was considered legitimate, no new president's name sprang from the ballots. It should be remember that it's since November that South Ossetia is trying to elect its president.
Head of the delegation of the Russian Public Chamber Maxim Grigoryev, while monitoring the process, assessed that the elections passed in the calm atmosphere.
Well, it would be surprising if five months after the mobilitation, with their first preference ignored, the few people who live in South Ossetia would still feel excited about the vote.
Anyway, no candidate reached the 50%+1, so there's going to be a runoff between the most voted two: Leonid Tibilov (42.48%) and David Sanakoyev (24.58%). The first one has a KGB background, the second a Human Rights one.
Still, it's hardly predictable that it would make any difference who, on the 7th or 8th of April, will eventually become the president.
This second round should be considered the peak of lowering expectations for South Ossetian political life.
Moreover, none of the two was suggesting something really shaking. Just Stanislav Kochiyev, the leader of the South Ossetian Communist Party, had in his program the re-unification with North Ossetia (which means annexation to Russia) but he scored just 5.26%.
At least, this sounds like a reasonable projection: so called independence twinned by a growing dependence from Russia.
But it's just a projection. After such troubled elections, it's hazardous to make forecasts.
So was hard to forecast the bad performance of political parties in Abkhazia.
Electors gave preference to independent candidates [11/13] in the first round, and confirmed the trend [15/20] in the second.
Being independent doesn't necessary mean being anti-government. So, it's not necessary a vote of protest. But it's definitely a sign that political parties in the region cannot rely on a stable, loyal electoral base.
A bad spring surprise for local parties.
A good confirmation, not as an unpredictable surprise, came from Armenia.
After some speculations, it's official: Armenian delegation will participate in the work of Euronest plenary session to be held in Baku on April 1-4.
Since Armenia withdrew its participation from Eurovision, some members of the delegation started to voice their concerns about security warrants.
So, through EU mediation, a little step has been taken, and Armenian politicians will visit a hopefully warm, spring Baku.
Monday, March 12, 2012
Week 5-11 March: Return to sub-normality
The upside-down world of South Caucasus goes on its way.
Especially during electoral periods.
In South Ossetia the main characters of November elections disappeared. In two week time elections will be held again, but without Alla Dzhoeva, who's been hospitalized after her head quarter was raided, and without her main contender, Mr. Bibilov who withdrew as well.
So the present aspirants, in the end of a troubled political campaign which basically lasted 6 months, are Ambassador to Russia Dmitry Medoyev, Ombudsman David Sanakoyev, former State Security Committee Chairman Leonid Tibilov, South Ossetian Communist Party leader Stanislav Kochiyev, Apparently the second enjoys more chances to be elected. Or, as it seems to be the case, to be the second best.
On the 25th it will became clear who's the new President. What's clear already now is how miserable the whole electoral process has been. And so are the "State" institutions, so blatantly used for political/clan needs.
It's rather a sub-normal electoral period of Abkhazia, also.
Early presidential elections, followed by Russian parliamentary elections, followed by Russian presidential elections, and, on Sunday, Abkhazian parliamentary elections. Due to the double citizenship, many residents in Abkhazia spent a considerable amount of time voting, in 2011-2012. Not surprising the voter turn-out is not so high, this time.
And there's going to be a second round, as not all candidate managed to collect the necessary 50% preferences and/or the voters' turn-out didn't meet the electoral provision. To the ballots again...
And back to sub-normality between Georgia&Russia / Azerbaijan&Armenia.
A deadlock on the visa-diplomatic relations in the west of Caucasus, no Eurovision contest in the East.
Not doors, but just small windows of communication and people to people contacts might open. But so far this option is denied.
Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili found unacceptable the preconditions to reciprocate the lifting of visa between Russia and Georgia and Armenian singers are requested not to go to Baku.
Different issues, same output. After a slight chance of un-freeze the situation, we are all pushed back to sub-normality.
Especially during electoral periods.
In South Ossetia the main characters of November elections disappeared. In two week time elections will be held again, but without Alla Dzhoeva, who's been hospitalized after her head quarter was raided, and without her main contender, Mr. Bibilov who withdrew as well.
So the present aspirants, in the end of a troubled political campaign which basically lasted 6 months, are Ambassador to Russia Dmitry Medoyev, Ombudsman David Sanakoyev, former State Security Committee Chairman Leonid Tibilov, South Ossetian Communist Party leader Stanislav Kochiyev, Apparently the second enjoys more chances to be elected. Or, as it seems to be the case, to be the second best.
On the 25th it will became clear who's the new President. What's clear already now is how miserable the whole electoral process has been. And so are the "State" institutions, so blatantly used for political/clan needs.
It's rather a sub-normal electoral period of Abkhazia, also.
Early presidential elections, followed by Russian parliamentary elections, followed by Russian presidential elections, and, on Sunday, Abkhazian parliamentary elections. Due to the double citizenship, many residents in Abkhazia spent a considerable amount of time voting, in 2011-2012. Not surprising the voter turn-out is not so high, this time.
And there's going to be a second round, as not all candidate managed to collect the necessary 50% preferences and/or the voters' turn-out didn't meet the electoral provision. To the ballots again...
And back to sub-normality between Georgia&Russia / Azerbaijan&Armenia.
A deadlock on the visa-diplomatic relations in the west of Caucasus, no Eurovision contest in the East.
Not doors, but just small windows of communication and people to people contacts might open. But so far this option is denied.
Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili found unacceptable the preconditions to reciprocate the lifting of visa between Russia and Georgia and Armenian singers are requested not to go to Baku.
Different issues, same output. After a slight chance of un-freeze the situation, we are all pushed back to sub-normality.
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