Sunday, December 18, 2011

Week 12-18 Dec.: Never enough

Apparently, the claim of 200 violations of the ceasefire in the period 4-10 December, according to the Azerbaijan Ministry of Defence, or 11 000 in one year (Nagorno Karabakh MD) are not enough.
Another Ministry of Defence, the Russian one, quotes Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Grigory Karazin, before the 18th Session of the Geneva Discussions: "[...] safety in the Transcaucasia region. There, it's a new situation, and there's no escape, may our partners in Geneva like it or not. The only alternative to the negotiation process that takes into account the new political and legal relations in the region can only be a new war. I hope that is aware everywhere, including in Tbilisi."

What 's the new situation?
The recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by the Russian Federation or there's something more, that can be traced in the Armenian fears?
The fear to be in the front line in case of an attack against Iran, for example. Perhaps not only, if this is also not enough.
So, the low intensity conflict over Karabakh has now a potential twin, or more, because such an escalation in a volatile region like South Caucasus is totally unpredictable.

First of all there's the issue of the Russian military base in Gyumri, which relies on Iran as a transit area for supplies. What if they may happen to be cut? Georgia would be the only alternative. But how, predictably without an agreement between Tbilisi and Moscow?
The threat of a strike against Iran (or Syria?) has already consequences. Russia is strengthening its military presence in Caucasus, on the Black Sea, on the Caspian Sea. Just in case.

What if the case from in posse becomes in esse?
May be, from the same fear of possible conflicts, stems the police build up on another border, the one between Armenia and Georgia.
So it's claimed by Armenia now which states that "A few days ago four more police stations have been established in Samtskhe-Javakheti (just imagine: in villages, in immediate proximity to the Georgian-Armenian border, police stations have opened with a 9-13-people staff)" (, allegedly a measure against the Armenian minority in Georgia. What if it's true but it's a preemptive measure against a possible war?

The only question is: which war?
Nagorno Karabakh, which now clearly means a potential inter-state war, Armenia/Azerbaijan, and not a secessionist conflict, or something not generated in the region, but swallowing it?
Never enough?!

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