Monday, January 9, 2012

Week 02-08 Dec.: Peace at home, peace in the world

According to Azerbaijani sources, in 2011, 774 violations of the ceasefire have been recorded, which resulted in 19 casualties.
2011 was one of the worst year, since the suspension of fights thanks to the ceasefire.
If the trend goes on in 2012 - as it seems to be the case - this should be called an un-ceasefire.
As suggested before, there's a strong need for additional measures of conflict prevention on the line of contact, from a hotline to a most desirable demilitarized area.

And it's hardly what can be inferred Sargsyan suggested during his "new year visit" to Karabakh, as a previous Karabakhi commander.
And Parliamentary elections are getting closer. No one would like to stir an unpopular topic.
But is the escalation of violence along the line of contact popular?

As for the elections: should they be expected to be just selections?
Probably not. The ruling Republican Party has not a pair challenger, but still it's quite predictable that there will be more room for the opposition, in the preferences of voters.
How much it's hard to say.
Some may collect the fruits of everyday stubborn work of party-to-people meetings, like Raffi Hovanissyan.
Some, the fruits of mass mobilizations and "radical" opposition, like Levon Ter Petrosyan.

Whatever, it should be welcome to have a more representative and mixed parliament. It would help to share responsibilities (it the oppositions manage to have something more than 6 seats or the like), and so to defuse political tension. And to have someone - hopefully- able to restrain the power of oligarchs' lobbies which crystallized around the Republican party in more than a decade of power.
Society has started some time ago to resent from this perceived boundless power of the oligarchs. In long term, this might be destabilizing.

So far the fight is much more the electoral law, which the majority has not intention to change.
And speculations about how elections will be free and fair, and if a 2008 after election scenario is possible now.
Use of force before Presidential elections is not advisable, on the side of a potential candidate. Sargsyan may have this concept clear in mind, after the Russian example in December...

Is it going to happen ANY change?
ANY hope to stop the daily violation of the ceasefire?

Someone else (really else...) said: Yurtta barış dünyada barış

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