The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict / Recap-1

It took me some time to try and understand whether it would make sense to write here about the second Nagorno-Karabakh war. Commentaries abound, and I am not really in the mood to add anything to what has been said by others.

What I think might make sense is to just recap in few posts, and in short, the main features of this war theatre. To make an effort to clear the muddy waters of this deep ponds the region is sinking into. Names and toponyms are used according to the most common versions in English sources.

So this first post will be about the CONSEQUENCES OF THE FIRST NAGORNO-KARABAKH WAR

Started with inter-ethnic Azeri-Armenian clashes in 1988, the confrontation escalated to a full war and was halted, to turn into a frozen/protracted conflict since the Bishkek Protocol was signed. The signatories were: The Ministers of Defence of Armenia, of Azerbaijan, of the Russian Federation, the Commander of Nagorno Karabakh, 1 Representative of the Russian Presidency, 1 Representative of the Community of the Independent States, and 1 for Kyrgyzstan, hosting the meeting. It was then ratified via signature by respective presidents in Armenia, Azerbaijan and de facto Nagorno Karabakh.

This is how the first war was stopped, but not ended. Its consequences were:

Nagorno-Karabakh: (Hereinafter) Karabakh was never recognized, although de facto became fully independent from Azerbaijan. In 1991 it had declared independence.

Armenia: Land borders closed, and diplomatic relations severed with Azerbaijan and Turkey. With Azerbaijan no exchanges at all (trades, flights).

Azerbaijan: it no longer exercised sovereignty on Karabakh, on the 3 regions between the Armenian border (Kalbajar, Lachin, Qubadli), on the 3 regions along the Iran border, south to Karabakh (Zangilan, Jabrail, Fuzuli), and on 1 region along the Karabakh-Azerbaijan administrative border, not turned into a line of milirary contact (Agdam)

Demography: More than 200 000 Armenians left Azerbaijan. In Karabakh and the surrounding regions, the Azeri community disappeared. The total number of Azeris who flew form the self declared Karabakh and Armenia is about 800 000 (the figure more quoted putting together displaced and refugees is 1 million).

Conflict solution measures: the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, (hereinafter) OSCE, activated the following mechanisms:

-          Minsk Group: 3 co-chairs mediators/facilitators depending on the phases or on the approaches. The composition never changed and it’s US, France, Russia. At the end of the process of mediation/facilitation there should be a Conference extended to other OSCE members (Belarus, Finland, Germany, Italy, Sweden, Turkey, and a member of the OSCE Troika).

-          1 Representative of the OSCE presidency with a team permanently based in the region to monitor the respect of the ceasefire, give an assessment of the situation on the ground.

Positions of the parties:

-          Karabakh: war of independence based on the right to self determination

-          Armenia: Karabakhi war of independence, with pan-Armenian support

-          Azerbaijan: inter-state Armenia-Azerbaijan war for the control of Karabakh. Defensive war to restore the territorial integrity of the State (recognized in the four 1993 UN Resolutions).

All the parties claim that their principles are grounded in the Helsinki Final Act, OSCE, 1975.

Interim conclusions:

As for the principles, there’s a selective reading of the Helsinki Final Act on both/three sides. The document does enlist territorial integrity, right to self-determination, AND peaceful settlement of disputes, the no-use of force, co-operation between/among states - as well. 

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